The DXY declined over the news of Chinese banks might cut U.S. Treasury holdings. If the fall continues further, a test to 96.00-95.50 can be seen. EURUSD has rise past 1.1850 and while it sustains, a test to 1.20 and above can happen. EURINR has a scope to rise towards 109-110 while it remains above 107. EURJPY can remain ranged within 187.50-182.50. USDJPY has been coming off and a break below 155 if seen can make it vulnerable to extend the fall towards 154-153 levels. USDCNY can drift toward 6.90-6.85 levels. The Aussie is trading higher within 0.69-0.71 region. Pound has risen past 1.365 and if sustained, can head toward 1.37-1.38 levels. USDINR can remain ranged within 90-91 region for now. US Retail Sales is scheduled for release today.
Dollar Index (96.89) slipped below 97 amid delayed U.S. data due to a partial shutdown and reports of Chinese banks cutting U.S. Treasury holdings. If the fall continues, 96.00–95.50 can be tested, and the outlook remains bearish below 97.50.
EURUSD (1.1908) indeed rose past 1.1850 as mentioned yesterday and while the ongoing rise sustains, a further test to 1.20 or slightly higher can happen in the near term.
EURINR (108.0315) met our target of 108 and has risen further. Interim resistance is coming at 109 and higher at 110 which can get tested if the rise sustains.
EURJPY (185.32) has turned lower from 186.23 itself. Overall, a broad 187.50-182.50 range can continue to hold in the near term.
Dollar-Yen (155.43) came down after the victory of Prime minister Sanae Takaichi in general election. Now, a break below 155 will be needed to bring 154-153 levels into picture. Immediate upside looks capped at 157.
USDCNY (6.9092) is coming off in line with our view and can witness a gradual decline towards 6.90-6.85 levels in the medium term.
Aussie (0.7086) is trading near the upper end of its 0.69-0.71 range. A confirmed rise past 0.71 will be needed to head towards 0..7150-0.7200 levels.
Pound (1.3693) has moved above 1.365 and if sustained, can extend the rise to 1.37-1.38 levels.
USDINR (90.6690) can move higher within its 90-91 range which is expected to hold for some time.
The US Treasury yields have come down sharply from their highs. They can fall more from here. The unemployment data release tomorrow will need a close watch. The German yields sustain lower. They have room to fall more from here to test their support. The price action thereafter will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI continues to move up in line with our expectation and keeps intact our bullish view.
The US 10Yr (4.20%) and 30Yr (4.85%) Treasury yields have come down sharply from their highs. That keeps the chance high to see 4.1% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.75% (30Yr) on the downside.
The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.52%) yields continue to remain stable. A test of 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) looks likely in the near term and need to see what happens after that.
The 10Yr GoI (6.7559%) has risen further. While above 6.7%, the yield can rise to 6.8%.
The Dow and the DAX have risen well but need to sustain trade above 50500 and 25000 to move up further else could be headed for a correction soon. Nifty has risen too and could continue to rise slowly towards 26000 and gradually higher. Nikkei continues the election rally and may continue to rise towards 58000-58500 before pausing for a correction. Shanghai is rising towards 4200 as expected.
The Dow(50135.87, +0.04%) has risen but as mentioned yesterday, a break above 50500 is needed to pave the way towards 52000.
DAX (25014.87, +1.19%) has broken above 25000, contrary to our expectations of facing a rejection. However, the price will have to sustain above 25000 to rise further towards 26000 else an immediate turn around will drag the index back towards 24500-24000 soon. Watch price action near 25000.
Nifty (25867.30, +0.68%) has risen further yesterday. While above 25600, a rise towards 26000 and higher looks possible now.
Nikkei (57953.64, +2.82%) continues the election rally. A rise to 58000-58500 looks likely before a slight correction is seen.
Shanghai (4118.79, -0.10%) has dipped from 4128.52. The overall view remains bullish to test 4200 before a pull back is seen towards 4100-4000.
Brent has risen on higher risk premium after US advisories around the Strait of Hormuz but remains capped below $ 70 within $ 65–$ 70, while WTI continues to trade in a $ 61–$ 66 range. Gold is holding below $ 5100 and needs a sustained break to move towards $ 5300–$ 5500. Silver retains an upside bias towards $ 90–$ 95. Copper requires a break above $ 6.00 for a move to $ 6.20–$ 6.40. Natural gas is holding near $ 3.10 support with scope for a bounce towards $ 3.30–$ 3.50.
Brent ($ 69.02) has risen after the US advised ships to steer clear of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting the risk premium for crude prices. While below $ 70, it can trade within the range of $ 70–$ 65.
WTI ($ 64.31) can remain within a range of $ 66–$ 61 for some time.
Gold ($ 5061.20) is holding below $ 5100, in line with our expectation. A sustained break above $ 5100 is needed for it to move higher towards $ 5300–$ 5500.
Silver ($ 81.81) has dipped, but we retain our view of a rise to test $ 90–$ 95 in the coming sessions.
Copper ($ 5.9360) has risen, and a sustained break above $ 6.00 is needed for it to move higher towards $ 6.20–$ 6.40.
Natural Gas ($ 3.1130) has dipped to test the immediate support near $ 3.10. While this support holds, a bounce back can be seen towards $ 3.30–$ 3.50.
GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Retail Sales
0.6 …Expectations 0.4 …Previous 0.6
DATA LAST FRIDAY
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NO MAJOR DATA WAS RELEASED YESTERDAY.