The DXY can rise to 97.50/98 while above 97. EURUSD can trade within 1.1950-1.1750 region while EURINR seems to be rising towards 108/110 while above 106/107.
EURJPY has support near 180 above which a rise to 184/186 looks likely in the medium term while USDJPY can rise towards 154/156 while above 153. USDCNY trades above 6.90 and while it sustains higher, it can rise to 6.95. Crucial support is seen at 6.85.  The Aussie can test 0.70/69 while below 0.71 while the Pound needs to break past 1.37 to head toward 1.38+ levels, else can initially test 1.35. USDINR can remain ranged within the 90.30-90.85 region for now with scope for a rise to 91.25/91.50 in the coming weeks.

Dollar Index (97.006) has risen above 97 and while it sustains, a gradual rise to 97.50/98 is possible.

EURUSD (1.1864) is likely to hold below 1.1950 and trade within 1.1950-1.1750 region for the near term.

EURINR (107.5251) has support near 106 which can be tested in the next few sessions followed by a slow rise to 110 in the medium term. A broad range of 106-110 can hold for the medium term.

EURJPY (181.88) is stable below 183. A test of lower support at 180 can be possible if a break below 181 is seen, with a gradual rise to 184/186.

Dollar-Yen (153.33) has risen slightly contrary to our expectations of testing 151 initially. Sustained rise above 153 can take it towards 154/156 sooner than expected.

USDCNY (6.9048) has moved up contrary to our expectations of testing 6.85 initially. The pair needs to hold above 6.90 to rise gradually to 6.95. However, we do not negate a dip to support at 6.85 in the medium term.

Aussie (0.7094) has dipped from crucial resistance near 0.71 and while it holds, a correction is possible towards 0.70/69.

Pound (1.3617) seems to be holding well below 1.37 and could attempt to test 1.35 before bouncing to 1.37+ levels.

USDINR (90.5950) closed lower yesterday. A break above 90.80/85 is needed for a rise to 91.25/50 else we may see a consolidated move between 90.30-90.85 for the near term.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after a weak housing data release on Thursday. The US Existing Home Sales fell to 3910K in January, down from 4270K in December. The Yields are now at their support. They have to rise back immediately in order to avoid more fall. The US CPI data release will be important watch. The German Yields remain lower and stable. They have to bounce back immediately. Else they can fall further. The 10Yr GoI has come down below its support. It can fall more from here and then see a reversal.

The US 10Yr (4.11%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields have come down sharply and are at their support. A bounce from here will keep the 4.1%-4.3% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.95% (30Yr) range intact. But a break below these supports can take the yields down to 4% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) and then a reversal is possible.

The German 10Yr (2.78%) and 30Yr (3.45%) yields remain lower but stable. A bounce from here is needed to avoid seeing 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.4% (30Yr) on the downside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6833%) has declined below 6.7%. It can now test 6.65% or even 6.6% and then rise back towards 6.7%-6.8% again.

Global indices have turned weaker than expected. Dow and Nikkei have fallen and can see further downside unless key resistance levels are reclaimed. Shanghai also risks additional decline. DAX needs a sustained break above 25000 to regain upward momentum, otherwise it may slip further. Nifty is holding near support at 25750 and can bounce towards 26200–26400 as long as this level remains intact.

Dow (49552, +0.06%) reversed sharply to a low of 49493.60 yesterday, contrary to our expectations. A further decline towards 49200–49000 can be seen in the near term.

DAX (25009, +0.49%) briefly broke above 25000 and tested a high of 25310 but failed to sustain the gains and slipped back to close at 24888 yesterday. A sustained break above 25000 is required to move higher towards 25400–25600, else it can fall back towards 24800/24500 in the near term.

Nifty (25807.20, -0.57%) has tested support near 25750. As long as this level holds, we maintain our view of a bounce towards 26200–26400 in the coming weeks.

Nikkei (57290.00, +0.91%) has declined sharply to 56850, contrary to our expectations. A sustained break above 58000 is needed to revive the earlier projected rise towards 58500–59000, else it can decline towards 57000–56500.

Shanghai (4116.98, -0.41%) has fallen back against our expectations and may decline further towards 4100–4050.

Crude prices have eased. Brent and WTI have fallen on softer US-Iran tensions but still holding within their broader $ 70–$ 66 and $ 66–$ 62 ranges. Gold and Silver remain under pressure, with downside targets intact. Copper has reversed lower and may decline further to $ 5.70. Natural Gas is gradually rising and can test $ 3.30–$ 3.50 in the near term.

Brent ($ 67.52) fell sharply to a low of $ 67.09 yesterday. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran eased slightly, weighing on crude prices, after President Trump said on Wednesday that his “preference” is to reach a nuclear deal with Iran. While above $ 66, the earlier mentioned $ 70–$ 66 range can continue to hold.

WTI ($ 62.85) declined to a low of $ 62.39 yesterday. While it remains above $ 62, it can continue to trade within the $ 66–$ 62 range for some time.

Gold ($ 4999.60) has fallen to a low of $ 4900 after failing to break above $ 5100. While below $ 5100, a further decline towards $ 4850–$ 4800 remains likely in the near term.

Silver ($ 76.48) has declined to a low of $ 74.37 in line with our expectations and can fall further towards $ 70–$ 65.

Copper ($ 5.8275) has reversed sharply to a low of $ 5.75, contrary to our expectations of a rise towards $ 6.2. A further decline towards $ 5.70–$ 5.65 remains likely in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2070) is inching up gradually and can rise towards the mentioned levels of $ 3.30–$ 3.50 in the coming sessions.

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Trade Bal
…Expectations -22.0 …Previous -23.7

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK GDP
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.1

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
2.19 …Previous 1.33

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
4327 …Expectations 4220 …Previous 4350

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
…Expectations 70 …Previous 48 …Actual 130

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.4 …Previous 4.4 …Actual 4.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.36 …Expectations 0.30 …Previous 0.05 …Actual 0.41

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.13 …Actual 0.38