The DXY seems to be stuck in a very narrow range just above 96.75 and could have scope to rise to 97.75/98 while it holds. Euro has broken below our expected support at 1.1850 and could test 1.18-1.17 while the decline sustains. EURINR could continue to dip towards 107-106.50 while below 108. EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for a slow rise to 184/186 and 155/156 respectively while above 181 and 153. USDCNY can rise to 6.92/95 while above 6.90, with crucial support still at 6.85. The Aussie can test 0.70/69 while below 0.7150 while the Pound needs to break past 1.37 to head toward 1.38+ levels, else can trade within the 1.37-1.35 region. USDINR could continue to remain sideways within 90.40-90.75 region for now.
Dollar Index (97.106) seems to be stuck within a narrow range above 96.75 above which there is scope for a rise to 97.75-98.00 in the near term.
EURUSD (1.1842) has broken below our mentioned support at 1.1850. A further dip to 1.18-1.17 can be possible unless an immediate bounce is seen from current levels.
EURINR (107.5071) could dip to 107-106.5 while below 108. Thereafter, we may expect a bounce back in the medium term towards 108+.
EURJPY (181.38) has risen. A slow rise to 184/186 could be on the cards for the near term.
Dollar-Yen (153.16) has immediate support at 152 above which a bounce back towards 155/156 could be possible in the near term.
USDCNY (6.9075) has been stable just above 6.90. While above support at 6.85, overall view is bullish for a rise to 6.92/95.
Aussie (0.7058) can test 0.70 with an immediate upside likely to be capped at 0.7150.
Pound (1.3616) is likely to continue trade within the 1.35-1.37 region for the near term unless a break out is seen on either side.
USDINR (90.6550) has been stable within a narrow range of 90.40-90.75 which can continue for the rest of the week. A break above 90.75/85 is needed for a bullish breakout on the upside.
The US Treasury yields remain stable now. There is room to fall more from here. The German yields stay lower after breaking below their support. While this break sustains, the yields can fall further. The 10Yr GoI is stable. There is limited downside from here as supports are available. We can expect the 10Yr GoI to reverse higher eventually going forward.
The US 10Yr (4.04%) and 30Yr (4.68%) Treasury yields are stable in the early Asian session today. We retain our view of the yields falling to 4%-3.95% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.55% (30Yr) from here. Thereafter we need to watch if a reversal is happening or not.
The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.43%) yields remain lower and stable. The yields can fall to 2.7%-2.65% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (6.6642%) remains lower but stable. Supports at 6.64% and 6.6% can limit the downside. A rise to 6,8% is likely in the coming weeks while above 6.6%. As mentioned yesterday, 6.6%-6.8% can be the trading range for now.
Dow is holding above support and can bounce towards 49800–50000 if it sustains. DAX remains weak and may fall further towards 24800–24500. Nifty has rebounded from 25350, but the broader 26000–25000 range may continue with a possible dip towards 25000. Nikkei has declined sharply and could extend losses towards 56200–56000. Shanghai is closed for the Lunar New Year holiday and will resume on 24-Feb-26.
Dow (49500, +0.10%) is hovering above its immediate support and, while it holds, a bounce towards 49800–50000 remains likely.
DAX (24840, -0.12%) is declining in line with our expectations and can fall further towards 24800–24500 in the near term.
Nifty (25,682.75, +0.83%) has bounced back from 25,350 (13MA), contrary to our expectations. The broader range of 26,000–25,000 may hold for some time, with an initial dip towards 25,000 possible in the near term, where fresh buying interest could emerge.
Nikkei (56320.00, -2.32%) declined sharply in line with our expectations, testing a low of 56,290 yesterday. A further fall towards 56,200–56,000 can be seen in the near term.
Shanghai (4082.07, -1.26%) is closed for a week-long holiday for the Lunar New Year (Spring Festival). Normal trading sessions will resume from 24-Feb-26.
Brent and WTI continue to move within their respective ranges of $ 70–$ 66 and $ 66–$ 62, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum for now. Gold remains vulnerable to a corrective decline towards $ 4900–$ 4800. Silver also maintains a bearish outlook with room to fall towards $ 70–$ 65. Copper has seen a rise but still appears prone to a pullback towards $ 5.70–$ 5.65 in the coming sessions. Natural Gas is holding above key support and may bounce towards $ 3.2–$ 3.4 in the near term.
Brent ($ 68.44) and WTI ($ 63.05) can continue to trade within the ranges of $ 70–$ 66 and $ 66–$ 62 respectively for some time.
Gold ($ 4985.20) remains vulnerable to a decline towards $ 4900–$ 4800 in the near term.
Silver ($ 76) outlook remains intact for a fall towards $ 70–$ 65.
Copper ($ 5.7340) has risen but is still likely to decline towards $ 5.70–$ 5.65 in the coming sessions.
Natural Gas ($ 3.09) is holding above its immediate support and can bounce back towards $ 3.2–$ 3.4 in the near term.
GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK Unemp
…Expectations 5.1 …Previous 5.1
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Previous -0.6% …Actual 0.1%
GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
…Previous 0.83 …Actual 1.81
GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
…Previous 0.7 …Actual
GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 IN Trade bal
-25.8 …Expectations -26.1 …Previous -25 …Actual -34.7
GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Previous 2.4 …Actual