The DXY has dipped contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise. It can fall towards 96 on a break below 97. Euro can dip towards 1.17 and keep immediate trade within 1.18-1.17. EURINR could rise to 108 while above 106.70. EURJPY has dipped from 183. 672 and can fall to 183 while below 184. USDJPY has tested 156 before facing decline from there as expected. A fall to 154-153 could be on the cards before pausing for reversal. USDCNY has fallen and while it sustains below 6.90, a dip to 6.85 looks possible. The Aussie and Pound can rise towards 0.71 and 1.36 respectively. USDINR moved up yesterday to close at 90.9550. If it holds below 91, a dip back towards 90.50 can be possible else, a rise to 91.25/50 could come into the picture.
Dollar Index (97.808) has dipped contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise to 99. A break below 97, if seen can take the index back to 96.
EURUSD (1.1780) could dip within the 1.18-1.17 region in the next few sessions. A break below 1.17 will open chances of a further fall to 1.16.
EURINR (107.0980) looks stable above 107. A rise from here can take it slowly towards 108.
EURJPY (183.39) tested 183.672 before declining back to current levels. A test of 184 is possible before a reversal is seen towards 183. A break above 184, if seen could open doors towards 186-188 in the longer run. Watch price action near 184.
Dollar-Yen (155.65) tested 155.99 in line with our expectations of testing 156. The pair has dipped from 156 as expected.
A sustained dip can take it towards 152. A break above 156 is needed for medium term bullishness to set in.
USDCNY (6.8750) could be headed towards support at 6.85 before pausing for a reversal. Immediate view looks bearish while below 6.90.
Aussie (0.7081) is likely to trade within the 0.70-0.71 region for now unless a break on either side of this range is seen which can take the spot either to 0.7150 or to 0.69.
Pound (1.3504) has risen as expected and could be headed towards 1.36 in the near term.
USDINR (90.9550) moved up again yesterday towards 91. It would be crucial to see if 91 holds and produces a decline to 90.50 or not. A break past 91 would be bullish towards 91.25/50.
The US Treasury yields remain lower. They can fall more from here in the near-term and then see a bullish reversal. The German Yields also have room to fall further from here to test their support. The price action thereafter will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has come down below its intermediate support. A near-term fall is possible before the expected rise happens.
The US 10Yr (4.04%) and 30Yr (4.69%) Treasury yields remain lower. The yields can fall 3.95%-3.9% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) and then rise back again.
The German 10Yr (2.70%) and 30Yr (3.38%) yields sustain lower. That keeps intact our view of seeing 2.65% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) on the downside. Thereafter, there is a chance of seeing a reversal.
The 10Yr GoI (6.6812%) has dipped below 6.7%. But supports are there at 6.65% and 6.6% which can limit the downside if the fall extends from here. While above 6.6%, the big picture is positive to see 6.8% on the upside.
Global equities remain mixed, with the Dow edging higher but still biased lower towards 48,500–48,000 in the near term. DAX has risen slightly but a test of 24,800 looks possible for the near term before a recovery towards 25,400–25,500. Nifty continues to show weakness, and unless it sustains above 25,500, a decline towards 25,000–24,900 remains likely. Nikkei has rebounded contrary to expectations and may trade in a broad 58,000–56,000 range for some time. Shanghai has dipped but retains a positive outlook, with scope to rise towards 4,150–4,175 while holding above 4,050.
Dow (49,206, -0.06%) has risen slightly, but the view remains intact for a fall towards 48,500–48,000 in the near term.
DAX (25,074, +0.05%) tested a low of 24,919 yesterday and closed slightly higher at 25,062. Support near 24,800 may be tested in the near term before a recovery towards our earlier mentioned levels of 25,400–25,500.
Nifty (25,424, +0.65%) fell to a low of 25,327.60. A sustained move above 25,500 is required for a rebound towards 25,800, which looks unlikely at the moment. If the current weakness persists, a decline towards 25,000–24,900 can be seen in the near term.
Nikkei (57,825, -0.26%) has bounced back to a high of 58,100 yesterday, contrary to our expectations. A range of 58,000–56,000 can hold for some time.
Shanghai (4,117.40, +0.87%) dipped to a low of 4,105 yesterday, but the outlook remains intact for a rise towards 4,150–4,175 in the near term while it holds above 4,050.
Brent is struggling near $ 71 but retains upside potential towards $ 74–$ 76 in the coming sessions. WTI has dipped near $ 66, yet the near-term view stays positive for a rise towards $ 68–$ 70. Gold has corrected slightly but continues to hold a bullish outlook targeting $ 5,300–$ 5,400. Silver has also eased but remains biased higher with scope to move towards $ 90. Copper is moving up as expected and can extend gains towards $ 6.00–$ 6.20. Natural Gas continues to weaken and may fall further towards $ 2.80–$ 2.60 in the near term.
Brent ($ 71.21) is struggling to move higher, but the view remains intact for a rise towards $ 74–$ 76 in the coming sessions.
WTI ($ 66.03) has dipped, but the view remains intact for a rise towards $ 68–$ 70 in the near term.
Gold ($ 5,159.10) has dipped, but the outlook remains intact for a rise towards $ 5,300–$ 5,400 in the near term.
Silver ($ 86.93) has dipped, but the view remains intact for a rise towards $ 90 in the coming sessions.
Copper ($ 5.8995) is moving up in line with our expectations and can continue its rise towards $ 6.00–$ 6.20.
Natural Gas ($ 2.8490) is falling in line with our expectations and can decline further towards $ 2.80–$ 2.60 in the near term.
GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 AU CPI
…Expectations 3.8 …Previous 3.7
GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
…Expectations 1.7 …Previous 1.7
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Case Schiller
…Expectations 1.3 …Previous 1.4 …Actual 1.4
GMT 15:00 IST 20:30 US Cons Conf
83.0 …Expectations 87.6 …Previous 84.5 …Actual 91.2