The DXY has dipped below 98 and a further decline below 97.50 can drag it lower else the upside targets of 98.50/99 remain intact. Euro has declined below 1.18 again and if sustains, can dip towards 1.17/1.16. Trade past 1.18 is needed for a rise towards 1.1850/1.19 which could be delayed at the moment. EURINR is slowly rising towards 108-108.50 while above 107. EURJPY can trade between 185.35-183 for the near term while USDJPY seems to be rising back above 156 which would eventually open doors for 158-160 in the longer run. USDCNY has moved back above 6.85 and needs to sustain for a rise back towards 6.90; else the pair can decline to 6.80 or lower. Watch price action at 6.85.
The Aussie and Pound can rise towards 0.71-0.7150 and 1.36-1.3650 respectively. USDINR closed above 90.90 yesterday. If it breaks past 91, a rise to 91.25/50 could come into the picture.

Dollar Index (97.805) seems to be holding below 98 for now. Immediate support is seen at 97.50 which if holds can take the index to 98/98.75/99 in the near term. Else, a straight dip below 97.50 can drag the index towards 97-96.50.

EURUSD (1.1789) has dipped again today on Dollar strength. Although there is room for a rise to 1.1850-1.19 while above 1.1750, a decisive break below 1.1750 and further below 1.17 can drag it down to 1.16.

EURINR (107.30) seems to be slowly inching up along the near term support trendline. With support at 107, the cross can rise towards 108-108.50 soon.

EURJPY (183.88) has immediate resistance at 185-185.35 which if holds can produce a decline towards 183 in the near term. An immediate range of 183-185.35 can hold for a few sessions before a break on either side of the range is seen, preferably to the upside targeting 188-190 in the longer run.

Dollar-Yen (155.95) is trading just below 156. A break past this level would open chances of testing 158-160 on the upside.

USDCNY (6.8581) has risen slightly moving back above 6.85. If this rise sustains, a slow rise back towards 6.90 and higher is possible. But a decline back below 6.85, if seen could make the pair vulnerable to sharper and deeper declines towards 6.80/70. We remain cautious near 6.85.

Aussie (0.71) has dipped slightly. But while above 0.70, there is scope to test 0.7150/72 before pausing for a reversal. In the longer run, a sustained rise above 0.71 would indicate a crucial upside breakout, opening doors for higher targets of 0.73/75. Watch price action near 0.72.

Pound (1.3483) needs to hold above 1.35 to rise towards 1.36/3650. Thereafter while below 1.36, a dip to 1.35/34 can be seen in the medium term. The overall range of 1.34-1.3650 may hold for now.

USDINR (90.91) closed above 90.90 yesterday with the offshore currently quoting 90.98. A decisive break above 91 would take it higher towards 91.25/50 in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields and the German Yields are coming down as expected. Both the US and German Yields can fall more from here to test their crucial support. We expect them to reverse higher after testing their support. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its immediate support. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing a rise. There is not much downside even if the immediate support is broken.

The US 10Yr (4%) and 30Yr (4.65%) Treasury yields are coming down towards 3.95%-3.9% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) as expected. Thereafter we expect the yields to reverse higher again.

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.35%) yields are coming down in line with our expectations. The yields can fall further to 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.28% (30Yr). Thereafter there are chances to see a reversal.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6943%) is holding well above 6.65% and attempting to rise. We retain our bullish view of seeing a rise to 6.8%. Lower support is at 6.6% and this bullish view will hold good while the yield sustains above it.

Dow tested 49,872 but the broader view remains negative, with scope to decline towards 48,500–48,000 in the near term. DAX is holding within a 25,400–25,000 range, which is likely to persist for some time. Nifty bounced from near 25,400 but while below 25,800, it can drift lower towards 25,200–25,000 in the coming sessions. Nikkei has immediate support near 58,000, and as long as this holds, a rally towards 61,000–62,000 remains possible. Shanghai has dipped slightly but retains upside potential towards 4,185–4,200 in the coming sessions.

Dow (49,262, -0.54%) tested a high of 49,872 yesterday, but the outlook remains intact for a decline towards 48,500–48,000 in the near term.

DAX (25,294, -0.08%) tested a high of 25,390 yesterday. A range of 25,400–25,000 is likely to hold for some time.

Nifty (25,496.55, +0.06%) tested a low near 25,400 and ended the day marginally higher. While it trades below 25,800, the view remains intact for a decline towards 25,200–25,000 in the coming sessions.

Nikkei (58,850, -0.26%) fell to a low of 58,315 yesterday. Immediate support is seen near 58,000, and while this holds, the earlier mentioned rally towards 61,000–62,000 remains likely.

Shanghai (4,142.91, -0.07%) has dipped slightly, but the view remains intact for a rise towards 4,185–4,200 in the coming sessions.

Crude prices remain under pressure amid fluid US–Iran negotiations, with Brent likely to dip towards $ 70–$ 69 and WTI retesting $ 64–$ 63 before any bounce back. Gold’s bullish structure remains intact, supporting a rise towards $ 5,300–$ 5,400. Silver has cleared $ 90 as expected and can extend gains towards $ 95–$ 100 in the coming weeks. Copper continues to hold firm and can move up towards $ 6.10–$ 6.20 in the near term. Natural Gas is falling in line with expectations and can decline further towards $ 2.80–$ 2.60 in the near term.

Brent ($ 70.57) whipsawed between a high of $ 72.61 and a low of $ 69.16, and then slipped again, as the situation around US–Iran negotiations remains fluid. A decline towards $ 70–$ 69 can be seen in the near term before any bounce back takes place.

WTI ($ 64.98) fell sharply to a low of $ 63.60 and closed at $ 65.21 yesterday. Another test of $ 64–$ 63 can be seen in the near term before any bounce back takes place.

Gold ($ 5,200.40) remains intact for a rise towards $ 5,300–$ 5,400 in the near term.

Silver ($ 90) has moved above $ 90 in line with our expectation. A further rise towards $ 95–$ 100 can be seen in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 6.04) can rise towards $ 6.10–$ 6.20 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.8270) is falling off in line with our expectation and can decline towards $ 2.80–$ 2.60 in the near term.

GMT 0:01 IST 05:31 UK Cons Conf
…Expectations -15.0 …Previous -16.0

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 CH GDP
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous -0.5

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN GDP
…Previous 8.2%

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PPI
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.5

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.7

{GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Biz Climate
99.9 …Expectations 99.8 …Previous 99.4 …Actual 98.3