The Dollar Index is holding below immediate resistance near 100.54 but the current dip could pause at 99 for a bounce back towards
101-101.50. Euro has risen but could limit it’s upside to 1.1550-1.16 before declining back to 1.14. EURINR has risen as expected and may continue to rise towards 107/108 while above support near 105-105.50. EURJPY is stable above 183 and can rise within the 180-185 region while USDJPY has almost reached to test 160 from where a rejection is likely.  USDCNY is bullish to 6.90/95 while above 6.85. Aussie is headed towards 0.71/72 while the Pound has broken below 1.33 and if sustains can head towards 1.32 and negate our earlier expected rise towards 1.35/36 respectively.  The USDINR may trade within 92.00-92.50 region for the near term unless a breakout on the upside is seen.

Dollar Index (99.947) is likely holding below the immediate resistance near 100.54 on the 3-day candles chart. While that holds, a small pull back to 99 is possible before bouncing back again towards 101-101.50 in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1489) has moved up as the Dollar Index dipped from resistance near 100.54. The Euro has scope to test 1.1550-1.16 before pausing for a reversal.

EURINR (106.0497) is rising as expected and looks bullish towards 107/108 while above support at 106.

EURJPY (183.15) looks stable above 183. For now, the broad range of 183-185 is likely to hold for the next few sessions until we see a breakout on either side of the range.

Dollar-Yen (159.39)   trades above 159. It can test resistance at 160 before coming off from there.

USDCNY (6.8851) is holding stable above 6.85. A slow rise to 6.90 and higher could be on the cards for the near term.

Aussie (0.7070) is likely to range within 0.69-0.72 for the near term.

Pound (1.3298) has just broken below 1.33 and if it does not recover immediately, may dip towards 1.3250-1.32 negating our expected rise towards 1.35/36.

USDINR (92.43) traded within 92.4750-92.31 yesterday. Immediate downside could be limited to 92.15/92.00 with the bias towards a gradual rise above 92.50 still intact.

The US Treasury yields are holding well above their support and are attempting to bounce back. That keeps intact our bullish view. The yields can rise more in the coming days. The US Fed meeting outcome and its economic projections will need a close watch tomorrow. The German Yields have come down. A corrective dip can be seen in the near term. Thereafter the yields can resume their upmove. The 10Yr GoI is moving up thereby reducing the chances of seeing a dip first. The bias is positive and there is room to rise more.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and 30Yr (4.88%) Treasury yields are holding above 4.2% and 4.8% respectively and are attempting to bounce. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 4.3%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.95%-5% (30Yr)

The German 10Yr (2.95%) and 30Yr (3.51%) yields have come down. A corrective dip to 2.88% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) is likely before the rise to 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65% (30Yr) happens.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7059%) is moving up. The chances of seeing 6.6% first stands slightly reduced. The yield can test 6.75% first and the upside can extend to 6.8% eventually.

Global equities remain broadly weak despite some short term rebounds. Dow has bounced but while below 48000 the outlook stays bearish towards 46000. DAX can rise towards 24000 before potentially reversing lower towards 22000. Nifty has recovered slightly but needs a decisive break above 24000 to negate the downside risk towards 22000-21740, with immediate support at 22900-22800. Nikkei also rebounded but the medium term outlook remains negative towards 50000-48000 while below 56000. Shanghai continues to remain weak and may keep oscillating within the 4000-4200 range for some time.

Dow (47178, -0.23%) has bounced back to a high of 47520 yesterday, but while it holds below 48000 we retain our view of a fall towards 46000 in the near term.

DAX (23,564, -0.03%) can rise to test 24000 in the near term before taking a reversal and eventually falling towards 22000.

Nifty (23,408.80, +1.11%) inched slightly higher today after making a low of 22955.25. It needs to break above 24000 to bring the bullish view back into the picture and negate our expected decline towards 22000-21740 mentioned in the morning edition. Immediate support is at 22900-22800.

Nikkei (53,820, -1.05%) has bounced back to a high of 54500 yesterday, but the outlook remains intact for a fall towards 50000-48000 over the medium term while below 56000.

Shanghai (4,084.37, -0.02%) remains weak and can continue to oscillate within the 4000-4200 range for some time.

Crude prices have pulled back but remain supported, with Brent holding above $ 98-$ 100 and WTI above $ 94-$ 96, keeping the upside open towards $ 108-$ 110 and $ 104-$ 106 respectively. Precious metals look weak in the near term as Gold may decline towards $ 4800 and Silver towards $ 75-$ 70 before any pause or reversal appears. Copper has rebounded from support near $ 5.60 and may stay range bound within $ 6.00-$ 5.60 for some time. Natural Gas continues to hold above the $ 3.00-$ 2.80 support zone and can gradually rise towards $ 3.50 if the support holds.

Brent ($ 102.64) and WTI ($ 95.90) have fallen back, but with immediate supports near $ 98-$ 100 on Brent and $ 94-$ 96 on WTI, there is scope for a rise towards $ 108-$ 110 and $ 104-$ 106 on Brent and WTI respectively.

Gold ($ 5014.90) and Silver ($ 80.95) can decline to test $ 4800 and $ 75-$ 70 respectively in the near term before any pause or reversal is seen.

Copper ($ 5.8315) has bounced back sharply from the immediate support near $ 5.60. A range of $ 6.00-$ 5.60 can hold for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0360) is holding above the support near $ 3.00-$ 2.80 and while this holds, it can eventually rise towards $ 3.50.

GMT 3:30 IST 09:00 RBA Meeting
…Expectations 4.10 …Previous 3.85

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 2:00 IST 07:30 CN Retail Sales
…Previous 0.9 …Actual 2.8

GMT 2:00 IST 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
…Previous 5.2 …Actual 6.3

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
…Previous 1.81 …Actual 2.13

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
…Previous -34.7 …Actual -27.1

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Previous 2.3 …Actual

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US Industrial Production
0.3 …Previous 0.7 …Actual

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
76.2 …Previous 76.2 …Actual