The Dollar Index came off along with the decline in crude prices as the US said it may let Iranian oil on the sea to cool of prices. The index continues to fluctuate within 99-101 region. Euro is headed towards 1.16 from where it can decline back to 1.14. EURINR has risen as expected and may test 108 before pausing. EURJPY could continue to hold within 182-185 while the USDJPY has come down while below 160. It could trade within 160-157 region in the near term. USDCNY remains bullish to 6.90/95 while above 6.85. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.69-0.72 and 1.3250-1.35 region respectively. The USDINR may open with a gap up but whether it would rise past 93 today is to be seen. The surge to 93.35 yesterday on the NDF has now corrected to 92.89/90 currently.

Dollar Index (99.355) has come off sharply after testing 100.306 yesterday. We expect the 99-101 range to hold at the moment.

EURUSD (1.1565) has moved up and is headed towards the upper end of the 1.14-1.16 region.

EURINR (107.5269) has risen well as expected. A test of 108 looks likely. Thereafter, it has to be seen if the cross moves further up or declines towards 107-106.

EURJPY (182.94) has dipped from 183.434. We may continue to see fluctuations within the 182-184 region for the near term.

Dollar-Yen (158.21) has come down as resistance near 160 seems to be holding well for now.  Near term range of 157-160 may hold.

USDCNY (6.8908) may rise slowly towards 6.90 and higher while above 6.85.

Aussie (0.7082) has dipped within the 0.69-9.72 region while the Pound (1.34123) has moved up on dip in the Dollar index. Pound may test 1.35 before pausing.

USDINR (92.65) closed higher on Wednesday and surged to test 93.35 on the NDF yesterday as the US-Iran conflict escalated. However, it is currently quoting 92.89/90 on the NDF, as most crude prices have come down sharply after the US said it may let Iranian oil through the sea to cool down prices. We may expect a rise to 92.89/90 but whether a break past 93 will be seen today or not needs to be seen.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply from their highs. Further dip in the near-term is possible before the yields rise back again. The German Yields have come down sharply. That keeps alive the chances of the dip that we have been expecting earlier. The yields can rise back again after this corrective dip. The ECB left the interest rates unchanged in its meeting yesterday. The central bank had raised its concern about high inflation and economic slowdown on the back of the ongoing war. The 10Yr GoI was closed yesterday. The bias is bullish. More rise is possible on a break above the immediate resistance.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and 30Yr (4.84%) Treasury yields have come down sharply from their respective highs of 4.32% and 4.91%. A dip to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) is possible first and then the rise to 4.3%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.9%-4.95% (30Yr) can happen again.

The German 10Yr (2.95%) and 30Yr (3.46%) yields have fallen back sharply. That still keeps alive the chances of seeing 2.88% (10Yr) and 3.4% (30Yr) on the downside before a fresh rise happens again.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7330%) was closed yesterday. We retain our bullish view of seeing 6.8% on the upside. A break above 6.75% will pave way for this.

Global equities remain weak as the Dow continues to fall towards 46000 in line with expectations. DAX has bounced after testing support near 22700 and may rise towards 23500-23700 while this level holds. Nifty has turned sharply bearish with a gap down move and a break below 23000 can drag it further towards 22750-22500. Nikkei also remains on a declining path and can fall towards 50000-48000 while below 56000. Shanghai is attempting a breakdown below 4000 and a sustained move lower can take it towards 3950-3900 in the coming weeks.

Dow (46475, +0.29%) is falling in line with our expectations and can decline further towards 46000 in the near term.

DAX (23,260, +0.87%) fell sharply to test the medium term support near 22726 yesterday following the ECB meeting where rates were kept unchanged at 2.15%. Today it has opened higher at 23210, and while the support near 22700 holds, a further rise towards 23500-23700 can be seen in the near term.

Nifty (23,002.15, -3.26%) reversed with a gap down opening at 23197.15 and fell to close near 23000 yesterday. A sustained break below 23000 can drag it further down towards 22750-22500.

Nikkei (53265, +0.72%) is falling in line with our expectations and can decline further towards 50000-48000 over the medium term while below 56000.

Shanghai (3995.01, -0.29%) is attempting a break below 4000, and a sustained break below this level can bring the index down towards 3950-3900 over the coming weeks.

Crude remains volatile but supported above key levels, keeping upside potential intact. Brent can bounce towards $ 110-$ 120 while holding above $ 100, and WTI may rise towards $ 100-$ 104 if it stays above $ 90. Precious metals remain weak with Gold likely to fall towards $ 4400-$ 4200 after breaking below $ 4800. Silver can decline further towards $ 65-$ 60 if it stays below $ 70. Copper continues to weaken and may fall towards $ 5.25-$ 5.00. Natural Gas is inching higher and can gradually rise towards $ 3.50 in the coming weeks.

Brent ($ 105.31) surged to a high of $ 119.13 yesterday but fell back sharply to close at $ 108.65. The reversal followed comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent that the US may increase oil supply through measures such as easing sanctions on Iranian crude in transit or releasing emergency reserves. Immediate support is near $ 100, and while above this level, a bounce back towards $ 110-$ 120 remains likely in the near term.

WTI ($ 92.69) has fallen contrary to our expectations. While it holds above $ 90, we retain our view of a rise towards $ 100-$ 104 in the near term.

Gold ($ 4685.20) has broken below $ 4800 in line with our alternate expectation and plunged to a low of $ 4505 yesterday. While the decline sustains, a further fall towards $ 4400-$ 4200 can be seen in the near term.

Silver ($ 73.81) has plunged to a low of $ 65.55 yesterday. A sustained break below $ 70 can drag it further down towards $ 65-$ 60 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.5350) fell to a low of $ 5.2950 in line with our expectations. A further decline towards $ 5.25-$ 5.00 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1280) has inched up and can eventually rise towards $ 3.50 in the coming weeks.

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Expectations 20.3 …Previous 17.8 …Actual 48.9

GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectations 0.75 …Previous 0.75 …Actual 0.75

GMT 7:00 IST 12:30 UK Unemp
5.2 …Expectations 5.3 …Previous 5.2 …Actual 5.2

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 SNB Mtg
…Expectations 0.00 …Previous 0.00 …Actual 0.00

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 BOE Mtg
…Expectations 3.75 …Previous 3.75 …Actual 3.75

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
…Expectations 0-3-6 …Previous 0-4-5 …Actual 0-0-9

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Philifed Index
14.7 …Expectations 17.5 …Previous 16.3 …Actual 18.1

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 ECB Mtg
2.15 …Expectations 2.15 …Previous 2.15 …Actual

{GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US New Home Sales
721 …Expectations 723 …Previous 745 …Actual