The Dollar Index may rise from $ 99 while Euro could face rejection at 1.16. EURINR may decline below 108 to fall towards 106/105 else, while it holds above 108, it could target 110 soon. EURJPY could continue to hold within 182-185 while the USDJPY is headed towards resistance at 160 from where a rejection can bring it down to 157. Else failure to fall from 160 would take it higher towards 162. USDCNY remains bullish to 6.95. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.69-0.72 and 1.32-1.35 region respectively. The USDINR is likely to fluctuate within the 93.25-94.00 region for the next few sessions.

Dollar Index (99.60) has support at 99 above which there is scope for a fluctuation within the 99-101/101.50 region in the near term. Unless a break on either side of this range is seen, further course of movement from here is unclear.

EURUSD (1.1554) continues to trade within the 1.14-1.16 region. We may expect a dip from 1.16 towards the lower end of the range.

EURINR (108.3037) tested 108.966 before coming off from there. Failure to sustain above 108 would take it down all the way towards 106/105 again I the medium term. Else, while above 108, the cross can rise towards 109-110.

EURJPY (184.22) has immediate resistance near 185 below which the cross pair may dip back towards 182-180. A sustained trade above 185 is needed for the pair to hold strong and continue rally towards 186/187.

Dollar-Yen (159.43) has risen again and is attempting to re-test resistance at 160. Only a decisive break above 160, if seen can take the pair up towards 162 else a sharp decline is possible towards 157/156 in the medium term. Watch price action at 160.

USDCNY (6.9083) has risen and may continue to rise towards 6.95 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6994) has dipped to the lower end of the 0.69-9.72 region and could bounce back from 0.69 while the Pound (1.3329) is trading within the 1.32-1.35 region and may continue to hold within this range for some more time.

USDINR (93.7150) rose sharply last week but may find some rejection near 93.80/94.00 region which can bring some consolidation in the pair within 93.25-93.80/94 region for the near term. However, overall trend remains to the upside.

The US Treasury and the German Yields surged on Friday. If the momentum sustains, both the yields can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has come down after an intraday spike on Friday. The upside remains open to see higher levels. But it needs to see if the rise is happening from here itself or after a near-term dip.

The US 10Yr (4.39%) and 30Yr (4.96%) Treasury yields have surged beyond our expected levels of 4.35% and 4.96% respectively. A rise above 4.45% can take the 10Yr up to 4.6%. The 30Yr has potential to see 5.05%-5.1%.

The German 10Yr (3.04%) and 30Yr (3.53%) yields have surged without seeing a dip. While this rise sustains, the yields can rise further to 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7369%) spiked to 6.7792% and then has come down from there. The upside still remains open to see 6.8%. Need to see if this rise is happening from here itself or after a dip to 6.65%.

Global equities continue to remain under pressure. The Dow, DAX, Nikkei and Shanghai have declined below their intermediate supports. This can keep them under pressure and drag them lower this week. Broadly the bias is bearish to see more fall in all these indices. Nifty is managing to stay afloat. But there seems to be a struggle to rise. This can keep it vulnerable to break the immediate support and fall more in the coming days.

Dow (45,577.47, -0.96%) has declined well below 46,000. This has opened the downside to see 45,000. A bounce is possible thereafter.

DAX (22,380.19, -2.01%) has declined sharply below the support at 22,800. This has negated the rise to 23500-23700 mentioned on Friday. A fall below 22,300 can drag it down to 21,000.

Nifty (23,114.50) is managing to hold above 23,000 but struggling to breach 23,400. The bias remains negative. A break below 22,900 can drag the Nifty down to 22,500-22,300.

Nikkei (51,485, -3.54%) has declined below the intermediate support level of 52,000. That keeps intact our bearish view of seeing 50000-48000 on the downside.

Shanghai (3,883, -1.86%) has declined below 3,900. While this break sustains, there is danger of seeing 3,800 and even 3,700 on the downside.

The whipsaw between de-escalation (by the US) and intensification (extended war scenario thereafter) of conflict is creating extreme volatility in the markets especially commodities. Earlier posts from the US of winding down and later intensification of war is bringing up more uncertainty. Crude prices have surged again with an upside target uncertain at the moment but could test $ 120 (Brent) and $ 115 (WTI). Precious metals have been declining sharply and may continue to fall as the US-Iran war remains intense. Gold and Silver may target $ 4200-4000 and $ 65/60 respectively. Copper looks bearish to $ 5 which if breaks can open up further downside targets of $ 4.5-4 in the medium term. Watch price action near $ 5. Natural gas is likely to test 3-2.75/50.

Brent ($ 112.07) is holding above $ 110 and has scope to rise further from here towards $ 120/134. Prices are likely to remain extremely volatile and hence we may see volatility between $ 90-134 region in the coming 1-2 weeks.

WTI ($ 98.61) has risen on escalation in conflict over the weekend. A rise to $ 100-$ 104 is possible in the near term.

Gold ($ 4407.70) and Silver ($ 66.76) have plunged in line with our expectations and can test $ 4200-4000 and $ 65/60 in the coming sessions.

Copper ($ 5.3355) has scope to test immediate support at $ 5, from where a bounce, if seen, can take it towards $ 5.5-5.6 in the medium term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0520) has fallen sharply and could have scope to test 2.75/2.5 again on a decline below 3.

NO MAJOR DATA IS RELEASING TODAY.

DATA LAST FRIDAY
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{GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Trade Bal EUR Bln
…Expectations 12.8 …Previous 11.2 …Actual -1.9