Dollar Index looks bullish for a rise to 104 while above 103. Euro can fall towards 1.0850-1.08 in the near term. EURJPY has broken below 157 and could head towards 156 or lower while USDJPY continues trade within a very narrow range and needs a breakout on either side for further directional clarity. USDCNY can test 7.30 soon. Pound seems to be stuck near 1.27 with some scope for a fall towards 1.26 while Aussie looks bullish towards 0.67-0.6725. USDRUB can now test 92. USDINR rose sharply yesterday to close above 82.20. A further rise above 82.25/30 will be further bullish towards 82.50/60/80 eventually. EURINR can fall to 89-88.80/60 in the near term.

Dollar Index (103.365) looks bullish towards 103.60-104 while above support at 103. Watch US Trade balance data today and NFP data tomorrow.

EURUSD (1.0847) has broken just below 1.0850 and has far chances to fall towards 1.0840-1.0800 in the next few sessions before an expected reversal is seen.

EURJPY (156.48) has finally broken below 157, indicating bearishness for the next few sessions and a possible fall to 156-155 on the downside.

Dollar-Yen (144.26) has also dipped but remains above 144 for now. We need a clear break on either side of 144-145 region for near term clarity on direction.

USDCNY (7.2499) has risen from levels above 7.24 itself contrary to our expectation of a possible test of 7.22/20. A rally towards 7.30 is likely to be on the cards for the near term.

Pound (1.2701) seems to be stuck around 1.27. Although there is scope to fall towards 1.26 in the near term, a break above 1.2745 if seen will suggest bullishness. We have to wait and watch the movement in the next few sessions.

Aussie (0.6662) is holding above 0.6650 and has scope to rise to 0.67-0.6725 in the near term.

USDRUB (90.7489) has dipped slightly but looks bullish for a rise to 92 soon.

USDINR (82.23) has been in a rally after testing 81.75 on Monday possibly on RBI intervention. It is crucial to see if the pair would continue to rally above 82.25/30 in which case the bullish momentum could pick up to target 82.50/60/80 on the upside in the next few couple of weeks. Watch price action near 82.30 over the next few sessions.

EURINR (89.2916) trades below resistance near 89.45. The pair can head towards 88.80-88.60 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have surged. The US Federal Reserve’s minutes of its June meeting indicating more rate hikes has triggered this rise. The yields have room to rise further in the coming days. The German yields continue to move up within their sideways range. The 10Yr is struggling to gain momentum and break its resistance while the 5Yr has come down failing to break its resistance. The yields look vulnerable to fall again.

The US 10Yr (3.94%) and (3.93%) have surged. The 10Yr has broken its 3.6%-3.85% range on the upside. It can test 4%. A further break above 4% will take it up to 4.2% over the medium-term. The 30Yr has a crucial resistance at 4% which has to be broken to move further higher.

The German 10Yr (2.47%) and the 30Yr (2.48%) have moved up further. As expected, the yields are continuing to move up within their 2.1%-2.5% (10Yr) and 2.15%-2.65% (30Yr) range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1072%) has dipped slightly. It seems to be struggling to gain momentum to breach the 7.13%-7.15% resistance. So, a fall below 7.1% from here can take it down to 7.08%-7.05% again. We will have to wait and watch.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0703%) has come down, failing to breach 7.1%. While this fall sustains, the 5Yr can come down to 7.05% and even 7% again.

Dow has declined and DAX continues to fall. Both the indices need to sustain above their immediate support to avoid the danger of falling further. Shanghai fall could be limited to 3200. Nikkei has fallen back and is coming down breaking below the support at 33000. Need to see if the fall sustains or not. Nifty continues to remain higher but stable.

Dow (34288.64, -0.38%) has declined. Support at 34200 is holding well now. Dow has to sustain above it to avoid a fall to 34000-33800. While above 34200, the view of breaking above 34500 and a rise to 34800-35000 will remain intact.

DAX (15937.58, -0.63%) continues to fall. A break below 15900 will negate our view of rising back to 16300-16400. In turn that will drag the DAX to 15700.

Nifty (19398.50, +0.05%) continues to remain higher but stable. It can dip today but the support at 19300 and 19200 can limit the downside and keep the broader bullish view intact to see 19500 and higher levels.

Nikkei (32985.99, -1.06%) is coming down below 33000 after failing to sustain the bounce seen yesterday. If the break sustains, it can come down towards 32000. This may delay the chances of seeing a rise towards 34500-35000.

Shanghai (3215.85, -0.22%) continues to fall but could get some support at 3210-3200 region. While it sustains above 3200, a bounce back towards 3275 is possible.

Brent and WTI have scope to rise towards their upper end of the range. Gold can remain under pressure while it stays below 1940. Sliver has entered into its immediate resistance zone. Need to see if it breaks higher or not. Copper remains lower and can fall further while it remains below 3.8.

Brent ($ 76.71) has gained momentum. A rise towards the upper end of the $ 79/$ 77-$ 71 range looks possible from here.

WTI ($ 71.97) has risen well. It has scope to rise towards the upper end of the $ 75/$ 73-$ 67 range.

Gold (1924.90) has come down towards 1920 failing to break above 1940. While it stays below 1940, a retest of 1900 is possible. Only a break higher could bring 1960-1980 into picture.

Silver (23.35) has risen towards the resistance at 23.50. A break it is needed to open doors toward 24.50. Else can dip towards 22.50-22 keeping the 23.50-22 range intact.

Copper (3.7610) remains lower below 3.8. A fall towards 3.7-3.6 cannot be avoided if it sustains below 3.8.

1:30 7:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 10.7 …Previous 11.2

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.0%

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 236K …Previous 278K

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn -53.4 …Expected -68.9 …Previous -74.6

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
23:00 4:30 AU PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -5.1 …Actual -19.8

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 61.4 …Expected 60.2 …Previous 61.2 …Actual 58.5