Dollar Index and Euro can trade within 103-104 and 1.08-1.0975 in the near term. EURJPY has bounced well from 155.85 and needs to remain above 155 to move up slowly while USDJPY seems to be breaking below 144 which could be bearish for the upcoming sessions. USDCNY can test 7.30 while it remains above support near 7.2150. Pound and Aussie can inch up slowly while above 1.26 and 0.66 respectively. USDRUB has been highly volatile and could dip to 88 while below 92. USDINR has scope to test 82.70/80 before facing rejection from there. EURINR can trade within 89-90.30 for now as it has risen contrary to our expected dip to 88.80/60.

Dollar Index (103.146) has dipped from 103.57 seen yesterday. The index is likely to trade within 103-104 region for a few sessions.

EURUSD (1.0885) has bounced well from 1.0833. Support is seen near 1.08 while there is scope for an immediate rise to 1.0975 on the upside. We may expect trade within 1.08-1.0975 in the next few sessions.

EURJPY (156.74) has bounced from 155.85 seen yesterday. The pair has to remain above 156 to move up slowly else we may have to allow for a decline towards 155-154 soon.

Dollar-Yen (143.998) has finally broken below 144 to give a slight indication of possible near term bearishness from here. While below 144, the pair can fall towards 143-142.

USDCNY (7.2455) has immediate support near 7.2150 which if holds can take the pair up towards 7.30 or higher eventually.

Pound (1.2727) could inch up towards 1.28 with downside limited to 1.26.

Aussie (0.6626) has support at 0.66 above which the view will be bullish towards 0.67. Failure to hold above 0.66 will drag it down towards 0.6550 initially but trade below 0.66 will be indicative of fresh bearishness in the coming weeks. Watch price action near 0.66.

USDRUB (90.7489) shot up to 94.4775 before falling sharply from there to current levels. A test of 88 can be seen on the downside while below 92.

USDINR (82.5150) has been surging high since the last few days and has scope to test 82.70/80 on the upside which is an immediate resistance above current levels. Thereafter a rejection is likely from 82.80 in the coming week.

EURINR (90.0505) has risen contrary to our expectation of seeing a dip. Overall broad range of 89-90.30 can hold for now.

The US Treasury yields have surged further and are poised above their key resistances. While this break sustains, there is room to rise further. A strong jobs data release today can boost the momentum and take the yields further higher. The German yields have also risen and are looking bullish to see more rise. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are breaking their key resistances contrary to our expectation for a fall. The bias is turning bullish, and the yields can rise further in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.05%) and (4.01%) both have surged and broken above 4%. While this break sustains, the 10Yr can rise to 4.2% and the 30Yr to 4.1%-4.2%.

The German 10Yr (2.62%) and the 30Yr (2.58%) have risen further. The 10Yr has broken its 2.1%-2.5% range on the upside. The doors are now open to target 3% in the coming weeks. The 30Yr on the other hand can rise to 2.65% and breach it to gain momentum.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1464%) has risen into the 7.13%-7.15% resistance zone contrary to our expectation to fall below 7.1%. We can expect the yield to rise up to 7.2% and higher going forward.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1161%) has risen above 7.1%. While this sustains a further rise to 7.15%-7.20% is possible. The fall to 7.05%-7% mentioned yesterday stands negated.

Dow, DAX and Shanghai have plunged below their support levels and look bearish to come down further from here. Nifty can see a correction from 19600-19700 region. Nikkei has scope to test its key support in the near term.

Dow (33922.26, -1.07%) has tumbled below 34200 contrary to our expectation. It can now test 33600-33500 and then see a fresh rise. Our view of seeing a rise above 34500 has not been negated but will get delayed now.

DAX (15528.54, -2.57%) has declined sharply below 15900-15700. Our view of seeing a rise to 16300-16400 has gone wrong. While below 15700 and 16000, the outlook is now bearish to see 15000 on the downside.

The rise to 19500 on the Nifty (19497.30, +0.51%) has happened. An intermediate correction from 19600-19700 to 19300-19200 is possible before the rally targets 20000 on the upside.

Nikkei (32671.18, -0.31%) is inching down. A test of 32000 looks likely. Thereafter we have see if it bounces back from 32000 or not.

Shanghai (3190.44, -0.47%) has broken below 3200 contrary to see a bounce back from there. While this break sustains, it may come down towards 3150 or lower.

Brent and WTI range trade may continue to intact until a clear breakout is seen on either side of the range. Gold and Sliver looks vulnerable to decline further from here. Copper remains subdued and needs to hold above its immediate support to avoid the danger of falling deeper. The US NFP (Non Farm Payroll) data would be crucial to watch today as it could bring in some volatility in the commodity market.

Brent ($ 76.68) is lacking strength to move up above $ 77. We expect the $ 79/$ 77-$ 71 range to continue to hold until a decisive breakout is seen on either side of the range.

WTI ($ 71.90) remains higher but is likely to be capped at $ 75-73 and may continue to trade sideways within $ 75/$ 73-$ 67 range for some time.

Gold (1916.30) has declined further. A retest of 1900 looks likely. If 1900 holds, we can expect a range of 1900-1950 to hold for a while. Else it can come down towards 1885.

Silver (22.87) has declined sharply below 23 as the resistance at 23.50 has held well. A dip towards 22.50-22 is possible while it stays below 23.50.

Copper (3.7430) remains subdued. Immediate support is at 3.715-3.70. While 3.7 holds, a bounce back towards 3.8 can be seen. Else it can fall towards 3.60.

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 377K …Expected 222K …Previous 339K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.6% …Expected 3.6% …Previous 3.7%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.4% …Expected – …Previous 0.5%

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 22.0K …Previous -17.3K

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
1:30 7:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 10.7 …Previous 10.45 …Actual 11.79

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.0% …Actual 0.0%

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 236K …Previous 267K …Actual 497K

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn -53.4 …Expected -68.9 …Previous -74.4 …Actual -69.00