Dollar Index has risen above 101.20 and looks bullish towards 102 while Euro can see a brief rise from 1.1050 for now but has scope to fall to 1.10 soon. Aussie and Pound have risen from supports near 0.67 and 1.28 above which both can continue rising towards 0.68 and 1.29/30. USDCNY has fallen sharply to 7.15 and needs to see an immediate bounce from here towards 7.20 else can drag itself down to 7.10/05. EURJPY can trade within 155-158. USDJPY can initially dip in the next few sessions before rising towards 143. USDRUB trades within 89-92 region. USDINR fell sharply yesterday to test 81.8150. It is crucial to see if the pair can continue falling below 81.80 or will it bounce back again towards 82. NDF currently quotes 81.70. EURINR can rise from support near 90.60/50.

Dollar Index (101.28) has broken above 101.20 mentioned yesterday. While the rise sustains, the index could rise towards 102 with some interim corrections.

EURUSD (1.1076) has bounced from 1.1050 which if holds can take Euro higher towards 1.11. However, there is room for a further decline to 1.10 which could come into play if the Dollar index marches towards 102 in the near term.

EURJPY (156.49) declined sharply from resistance near 158 as expected. A further dip to 155 is possible before a bounce is seen. As mentioned yesterday, we may expect the range of 155-158 to hold for the next few days.

Dollar-Yen (141.29) is holding well below 142 and could dip to 140.75-140.50 before rising back towards 143-143.20 on the upside. Overall view is bullish.

USDCNY (7.1567) has fallen to test immediate support at 7.15 as expected and needs to bounce back from current levels immediately to rise back towards 7.20 else a decline below 7.15 could drag it lower towards 7.10/05 soon.

Pound (1.2838) has risen from 1.28 and could rise to 1.29 or slightly higher in the next few days before declining back towards crucial support near 1.27.

Aussie (0.6763) is rising well from 0.67 and has scope to test 0.68 or slightly higher in the near term.

USDRUB (90.3916) remains ranged within 92-89 for now.

USDINR (81.82) fell sharply yesterday breaking below 81.90 to test 81.8150.It would be important to see if the pair continues to fall breaking below 81.80 to target 81.60 or rise back immediately towards 82 again keeping the broad sideways range intact. NDF rate quotes 81.70. If the RBI comes in and buys it could prevent the expected fall to 81.60.

EURINR (90.6086) could face decent support near 90.60/50 which if holds, can potentially take the pair up towards 91-91.50 again.

The US Treasury yields have moved up and can rise further ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. The German yields are coming down within their respective ranges. The 10Yr GoI has to hold above its immediate support and start to move up from here to avoid further fall. The 5Yr GoI looks mixed, and range bound. But the bias is slightly positive.

The US 10Yr (3.87%) and 30Yr (3.93%) yields are moving up. The 10Yr could move up to 4% again on a break above 3.9%. The 30Yr can test 4%-4.1%.

The German 10Yr (2.41%) and the 30Yr (2.47%) yields are coming down within their 2.1%-2.5% and 2.1%-2.65% (30Yr) range respectively.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0719%) has dipped further. A break below 7.06% can drag it to 7%. A strong rise past 7.1% is needed to strengthen the bullish case for seeing 7.2%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0586%) is stuck between 7%-7.1% and looks mixed in the near-term. But while above 7%, the bias is looking positive to breach 7.1%. We will have to wait and see.

Dow and DAX needs to breach above 35550 and 16250 to target further upside. Nifty is bearish while it remains below 20000. Nikkei is likely to be range bound for some time. Shanghai has risen well and has scope to test key resistance at 3225-3250. Need to see if it breaks above 3250 or not.

Dow (35411.24, +0.52%) continues to move up. A strong rise past 35550 can take it up to 35800-36000. Else a fall back to 34800-34600 is possible.

DAX (16190.95, +0.08%) is inching up within the 16000-16250 range. Need to see if it can breach 16250 and extend the rise to 16400-16500.

Nifty (19672.35, -0.37%) failed to bounce back and has fallen further. A test of 19500-19400 looks likely now.

Nikkei (32598.37, -0.31%) looks mixed. It is likely to remain ranged within 33000-32000 for some time.

Shanghai (3218.20, +1.71%) has risen well above our expected level of 3200. Immediate resistance is seen at 3225-3240/3250. Only a strong break above these levels could pave the way towards higher levels. Else it could trade in a broad range of 3250-3150 for some time.

Brent and WTI have risen well and have scope to test crucial resistance in the near term before a corrective fall can be seen from there. Gold and Silver have bounced back slightly but the resistances ahead are likely to cap the upside. Copper has risen towards the upper end of the range. Need to see if it breaks on the upside or not. Natural Gas is to remain range bound for some time.

Brent ($ 82.95) has risen sharply towards $ 83. It can now rise further to $ 85 before a reversal can be seen from there.

WTI ($ 78.96) has risen well towards $ 80. A test of $ 82 looks likely in the near term before a fall back can be seen from there.

Gold (1964.10) has bounced back slightly from a low of 1954.60. But it has to surpass the hurdle at 1970-1980 to move up higher towards 2000. Else a dip towards 1950-1940 cannot be negated.

Silver (24.66) tested 24.43 in line with expectations and has risen back slightly from there. Resistance is at 25. While that holds, a dip towards 24 or even lower to 23.50 is still possible.

Copper (3.8805) has bounced back as the support at 3.77 has held well. A strong break above the upper end of the 3.90-3.77/3.75 range is needed to see a rally towards 3.95-4.00.

Natural Gas (2.7240) has managed to hold above the support at 2.67. We expect a range of 2.60/2.67-2.80 to hold for a while before a possible rise towards 2.9-3.0 can be seen.

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn – …Expected 88.0 …Previous 88.5

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn – …Expected 93.0 …Previous 93.7

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn – …Expected 83.0 …Previous 83.6

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
Expn -1.0% …Expected -1.6% …Previous -1.7%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 107.6 …Expected 112.1 …Previous 109.7

DATA YESTERDAY:
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No major data release Yesterday.