Dollar Index trades higher and failure to fall from 102.50 can take it up towards 103-103.50 and drag down Euro to 1.09. Pound and Aussie could fall further breaking below supports at 1.27 and 0.66 respectively and target 1.26 and 0.65 on the downside. USDCNY can trade within 7.12-7.18/20 while USDRUB looks bullish for a rise to 93-94 while above support at 89. EURJPY is headed towards 158 which if breaks can take it towards 159-160 while USDJPY seems o be holding below 143.50 but can rise towards 144+ on continued Dollar strength. EURINR looks sideways to bullish above support near 90. USDINR may move up while above 82.17/20 with possible upside to 82.50.

Dollar Index (102.189) tested 102.433 but has come off slightly from there. View remains bullish to re-test 102.50 which if breaks higher can open possible rise to 103-103.50 before a sharp reversal is seen. Only if the index falls from 102.50, the EURUSD (1.0986) can bounce from 1.0950 else if the index rises towards 103-103.50, Euro could test 1.09 before a reversal is seen in the medium term.

EURJPY (157.35) continues to rise towards 158 which if breaks higher can take the pair towards 159-160. Watch price action near 158.

Dollar-Yen (143.23) seems to be holding below 143.50 just now which needs to sustain for the pair to fall towards 142. But note that the positive directional correlation with the Dollar Index could take the pair higher towards 144+ if the Dollar Index breaks above 102.50.

USDCNY (7.1782) looks bullish while above 7.12. There is room for a rise to 7.20 or higher in the near term.

Pound (1.2771) has scope to test 1.2730-1.27 on the downside before reversing higher. While the Dollar Index trades higher, Pound remains bearish for the near term.

Aussie (0.6606) has come down to test support at 0.66. But with the continuous rise in the US Dollar, Aussie could break below the support and head towards 0.65 soon. View is bearish below 0.66.

USDRUB (92.3975) has been in an uptrend over the last 5-6 sessions picking up momentum after bouncing from support at 89. While above 92, view is bullish for a rise to 93-94.

USDINR (82.26) has scope to rise towards 82.40/50 while above 82.17/20. Immediate view is bullish. NDF quotes 82.36 just now.

EURINR (90.4921) is trading in a narrow range while above support at 90. We may expect the pair to remain stable or trade low for some time before rising eventually in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have moved up slightly while the German yields have moved up much more. There are decent chances of seeing continued rise in the yields for the next few sessions. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped slightly yesterday and any correction seen could be limited as they have medium term supports at 7.12% and 7.10% respectively which if holds can eventually take the yields higher soon. Overall bullish view remains intact for the next 1-week on the yields.

The US 10Yr (4.029%) and the 30Yr (4.098%) yields have moved up slightly. While the 10Yr has moved up above 4%, the 30yr yield trades just below the 4.1% level mentioned yesterday. There are decent chances that the yields may move up in the near term.

The German 10Yr (2.558%) and the 30Yr (2.639%) yields have moved up sharply. The 10Yr has broken above the 2.1%-2.5% range mentioned yesterday and if it sustains higher, it may target 2.6% on the upside soon while the 30Yr has some more room to rise towards 2.65/68%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.16%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1430%) yields have dipped slightly yesterday and has some scope of bearishness over the rest of the week before eventually turning higher in early sessions next week. Note that 7.12% and 7.10% are important and respective suports on the 10yr and 5yr yields which may hold in the medium term. Upside targets of 7.20% remains intact for both the yields in the near term.

Dow has broken above 35550 and if the break sustains, it can move up further in the near term. DAX, Nikkei and Shanghai have declined but downside could be limited to 16200-16150, 32500 and 3250/3235 respectively. Nifty is facing rejections from 19800.

Dow (35630.68, +0.20%) has risen above 35550. A sustained move from here can take it higher to 36000.

DAX (16240.40, -1.26%) has declined sharply breaking below 19250. Next support is seen at 16200-16150 region. While these hold, a rise back towards 16600 and then towards 16800-17000 is possible.

Nifty (19733.55, -0.1%) is facing rejections from 19800. Only a strong break above 19800 could see a rise towards 20000-20200. Else a fall towards 19500-19400 cannot be avoided.

Nikkei (32842.65, -1.89%) has fallen back from the level of 33500. Immediate support is at 32500. If that holds, a rise towards 33750-34000 is still possible. Any break lower can see a target of 32000.

Shanghai (3277.97, -0.39%) is inching down. It may test 3250-3235 before a bounce back can happen.

Brent and WTI have risen well above $ 85 and $ 82 respective and may target further upside in the near term. Gold and Silver have declined sharply but could get some support at 1970/1960 and 24 respectively. Copper is bearish while it remains below 4.00. Natural Gas has come down towards the lower end of its range. Need to see if it breaks on the downside or not.

Brent ($ 85.67) has risen above $ 85. If the break sustains, it can move up further towards $ 87-89.

WTI ($ 82.13) has risen well above $ 82. While this break sustains, a rise towards $ 84-85 can be seen in the near term.

Gold (1984.80) has declined sharply, failing to break above 2000. Support is at 1970-1960. If that holds, a break above 2000 and rise towards 2025 or higher is still possible.

Silver (24.50) has fallen sharply contrary to our view of seeing a test of 25.30. Support is at 24. While that holds, we may see a consolidation between 24-25 for some time. Only a break lower can drag it down to 23.

Copper (3.9085) has declined sharply from a high of 4.0240. The resistance at 4.00 seems to be holding well. While it remains below 4.00, a dip towards 3.82-3.80 is possible.

Natural Gas (2.5760) has come down towards the lower end of the 2.81-2.50 range. If 2.50 holds, it may continue to trade within the mentioned range for some time. Else a fall towards 2.35 can be seen.

22:30 4:00 AU PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -19.8

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 45.5 …Expected 44.2 …Previous 44.9

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 195K …Previous 497K

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
23:30 5:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected 2.6% …Previous 2.6% …Actual 2.5%

0:30 6:00 JP PMI
Expn 49.6 …Expected 49.4 …Previous 49.8 …Actual 49.6%

1:45 7:15 CN PMI
Expn – …Expected 50.0 …Previous 50.5 …Actual 49.2

4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.35% …Previous 4.10% …Actual 4.10%

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 58.4 …Expected 58.3 …Previous 57.8 …Actual 57.7

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 42.7 …Previous 43.4 …Actual 42.7

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 45.1 …Expected 45.0 …Previous 46.5 …Actual 45.3

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 45.6 …Expected 46.9 …Previous 46.0

14:00 19:30 CA PMI
Expn 48.3 …Expected – …Previous 48.8