Dollar Index is rising towards 103.50/65 while Euro may fall towards 1.09-1.0890 or even lower. Pound and Aussie look weak towards 1.26 and 0.64. USDJPY looks bullish towards 146-148 in the medium term while EURJPY has dipped below 159.219 and can fall to 157 before resuming the upmove. USDCNY is headed towards 7.28/30. USDRUB could face rejection from resistance at 100 and trade within 100-95 for a while. EURINR may dip to 90.50/90.00 before moving up again. USDINR can attempt to test 82.90-83.00 or higher while above 82.60

Dollar Index (103) has risen to test 103 and could extend its rise this week to see some more rise towards 103.50-103.65 before a dip takes place.

EURUSD (1.0932) may fall towards 1.09-1.0890 initially but a further break below 1.0890, if seen could take the Euro down towards 1.08 in August or early Sep-23 before a sharp reversal is seen again towards 1.10/11 or higher in the longer run.

EURJPY (158.40) has dipped from 159.219 and the fall may extend to 157 before pausing. A sustained rise above 159 is needed again for reaching to our earlier targets of 160-162.

Dollar-Yen (144.89) has scope to test 146 where it may pause for a few sessions and see a corrective dip before resuming uptrend towards 148.

USDCNY (7.2594) rose as expected and has broken above 7.25 which if sustains, can take it higher to 7.28/30. Else an immediate fall from current levels could be possible, taking the pair down to 7.22/20 before again moving higher. View is bullish above 7.25.

Pound (1.2670) has support at 1.26 and could continue trade within 1.26-1.28 for the near term.

Aussie (0.6464) has broken below 0.65 and could test support at 0.64 before bouncing back from there. A break below 0.64 if seen will be a surprise and a trigger for further fall in the coming months. Preference is to see a bounce from 0.64.

USDRUB (99.5453) has risen sharply to target 100 which is a decent resistance. A dip from 100, if seen can take the pair down to 96/95 in August before attempting to rise again towards 102-105 in the next 2-3 weeks. Overall view is bullish above 90.

USDINR (82.8413) dipped to 82.60 on Thursday last week showing initial signal of a possible fall but reversed back to close above 82.80 on Friday. This has erased immediate possibility of a fall and could take the pair to 82.90-83.00 or higher on the upside while immediate fall could be limited to 82.60.

EURINR (90.7088) has dipped within the 90.50-91.50 region but if the fall continues, it can target 90-89.60 by end of the month before reversing higher from there. Watch price action near 90.50-90.00.

The US Treasury yields are gaining strength and have risen sharply. Outlook is bullish and there is more room to rise from here. The German yields have broken their range on the upside. While this break sustains more rise can be seen in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr have risen back without seeing further dip. Trend is up and the yields can rise further.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and the 30Yr (4.27%) yields have risen further sharply. The 10yr can extend the rise to 4.3%-4.35% on a break above 4.2%. The 20Yr has room to test 4.4% on a break above 4.3%.

The German 10Yr (2.62%) and the 30Yr (2.7%) yields have broken their range on the upside. While this break sustains, both the 10Yr and 30Yr has potential to target 3%-3.1% over the medium-term.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2021%) and 5Yr GOI (7.1857%) have risen back sharply. 10Yr can test 7.23%-7.25% and the 5Yr can touch 7.25%. The big picture is bullish to see 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.45% (5Yr).

Dow remains range bound within 35000 and 35500. DAX is vulnerable while it remains below 16000. Nifty has scope to fall towards 19200-19000. Nikkei has room to rise to our expected level while it stays above 32000-31500. Shanghai has declined sharply towards the support at 3150. Need to see if it sustains above it or not.

Dow (35281.40, +0.30%) retains its 35000-35500 range and has risen within that. A range breakout will determine whether the Dow can rise to 36000 or fall to 34800-34700.

DAX (15,832.17, -1.03%) has come down, failing to rise above 16000. This keeps alive the danger of seeing 15500 on the downside.

Nifty (19428.30, -0.59%) is coming down towards 19300 as expected. It looks weak to break 19300 and fall to 19200-19000.

Nikkei (32325.98, -0.45%) is lacking strength to move up above 32500. But as long as it remains above 32000-31500, there is scope for a rise towards 33500.

Shanghai (3160.08, -0.91%) has come down towards 3150 as expected. If it sustains above 3150, a broad range of 3150-3250/3300 could persist for some time. Else view can turn further bearish to 3100.

Brent and WTI look bearish while below the resistance at $ 88 and $ 85 respectively. Gold, Silver, and Copper have scope to test their immediate supports before a bounce back can happen. Natural gas has rebounded but needs to overcome the hurdle at 3.00 to negate the danger of falling again.

Brent ($ 86.48) is holding well below the resistance at $ 88. While below $ 88-89, there is scope for a fall to $ 85-$ 84.

WTI ($ 82.89) is trading lower below $ 83. It has scope to fall towards $ 82 while it remains below the resistance at $ 85. A break below $ 82 can trigger a fall to $ 81-80.

Gold (1943.80) remains subdued. A test of 1935-1932 looks likely before a reversal can happen. In case it breaks below 1932, a fall towards 1900 can be seen.

Silver (22.67) is gradually moving down towards 22.50. The view remains bearish to see a test of 22 before a reversal is seen.

Copper (3.7085) has come down to 3.70 as expected. A test of immediate support at 3.65-3.64 looks likely before a bounce back can happen

Natural Gas (2.7860) has rebounded from Friday’s low of 2.7010. But it has to surpass 3.0 to strengthen the momentum. Else a fall towards 2.6-2.5 cannot be negated.

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn -2.9% …Expected – …Previous -4.1%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 0.6 …Expected – …Previous 1.0

DATA FRIDAY:
—————–
6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -19.0 …Expected -16.2 …Previous -18.4 …Actual -15.5

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 5.4% …Expected 1.0% …Previous 5.3% …Actual 3.7%

12:30 18:00 US PPI
Expn -0.2% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.0% …Actual 0.3%

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.2 …Previous -0.1 …Actual 0.3