The  Dollar Index has scope to test 98 and fall further to 97/96 on a break below 98 while Euro has dipped and could fall to 1.17/1.16 before rising back later. USDJPY can test 158 but thereafter a decisive break on the downside is needed to confirm bearisness. EURJPY is headed towards 188 while EURINR may test 111-112 while above 109/108.  Pound can rise to 1.36 or higher soon while Aussie can test 0.72 in the near term.  USDCNY may trade within 6.80-6.85 region. USDINR may trade within 93-93.50 for the next few days.

Dollar Index (98.251) currently trades above 98 and may remain higher for a few more days in the near term but overall trend looks bearish with an eventual decline towards 97/96 in the longer run.

EURUSD (1.1777) has dipped yesterday after the Euro broke above 1.18. A wider range of 1.1850-1.16 can hold for the next few sessions.

EURINR (109.5078) has dipped on dip in the Euro. However we do not negate a rise back to 111-112 while above 1.16.

EURJPY (187.65) currently trades below 188. A break above 188 is necessary for the currency cross to move up towards 188-189.

Dollar-Yen (159.36) trades near the upper end of th 158-160.5 range. A break on either side will be needed for confirmation of further direction and target. However, a break below 158 can trigger a fall to 156.

USDCNY (6.8235) has risen above 6.82 and looks like it can rise further towards 6.83/85 region. Overall view is mixed between 6.80-6.85. A decisive break on either side of the range would determine medium term direction.

Aussie (0.7162)   is headed towards 0.72. A break above 0.72 is needed for the price to rise further towards 0.73/74 else we may expect a dip back towards 0.70/68. Watch price action near 0.72.

Pound (1.3516) trades higher today above 1.35. If the price sustains above 1.35, there is scope for a slow rise to 1.39 in the medium term.

USDINR (93.20) dipped yesterday by the end of the session after testing 93.35. We expect the 93-93.50 region to hold for the next few sessions.

The US Treasury Yields have risen further. If they manage to breach the upcoming resistance, then more rise will be on the cards. That in turn will avoid the chances of a fall back. The German Yields remain higher and stable. The outlook remains bullish, and the yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has bounced slightly. But failure to rise above the immediate resistance can drag it lower again to test its support.

The US 10Yr (4.31%) and 30Yr (4.93%) Treasury yields have risen further. A break above 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.95% (30Yr) will clear the way for the rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.05%-5.1% (30Yr). Else, the yields can fall back and still keep alive the chances of seeing 4.2%-4.15% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (3.03%) and 30Yr (3.59%) yields sustain higher and are stable. The outlook is bullish. The yields can rise to 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8884%) has bounced back. But while below 6.9%, the downside remains open to see 6.85%-6.8% first. Thereafter a fresh rise is possible.

Global equities are gradually moving higher in line with expectations. Dow and DAX maintaining upside potential towards 49000-50000 and 25000 respectively. Nifty has seen some rejection near 24400 but remains constructive while above 24000 for a rise towards 24400-24600. Nikkei is approaching the key 60000 mark, where a sustained breakout can open further upside towards 61000-62000. Shanghai continues to strengthen and needs a break above 4050 to extend gains towards 4100-4150 in the coming sessions.

Dow (48833, +0.12%) is inching up in line with our expectations and can rise further towards 49000-50000.

DAX (24235, +0.02%) can rise to test 25000 in the coming sessions.

Nifty (24,196.75, -0.14%) has faced rejection near 24,400. While it stays above 24,000, it can rise towards 24,400-24,600 over the next week.

Nikkei (59090, -0.44%) tested a high of 59805 yesterday in line with our expectation of a rise towards 60000. A sustained break above 60000 is needed for the index to move further up towards 61000-62000.

Shanghai (4042.19, +0.50%) is moving up in line with our expectations. A sustained break above 4050 can take it higher towards 4100-4150.

Crude prices remain volatile amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty. Brent and WTI showing sharp swings but retaining a bullish bias towards $ 110-$ 115. Gold and Silver have corrected slightly but continue to hold a positive outlook with targets at $ 4900-$ 5000 and $ 82-$ 85 respectively. Copper remains firm and on track for a rise towards $ 6.15-$ 6.25. Natural Gas hold a bearish bias towards $ 2.55-$ 2.50 in the near term.

Brent ($ 98.32) has bounced back sharply in line with our expectations, and the market remains highly volatile, creating uncertainty about the direction. However, our view of a rise towards $ 110-$ 115 remains intact.

WTI ($ 89.91) rose to a high of $ 95.44 yesterday. The direction remains unclear due to ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, but the bias remains tilted towards a rise to $ 110-$ 115.

Gold ($ 4810.20) has dipped back, but the view remains intact for a rise towards $ 4900-$ 5000.

Silver ($ 78.45) has fallen back but can rise towards $ 82-$ 85 in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.04) remains intact for a rise towards $ 6.15-$ 6.25.

Natural Gas ($ 2.6640) has bounced back slightly, but the view remains intact for a decline towards $ 2.55-$ 2.50 in the near term.

GMT 2:00 IST 07:30 CN GDP
…Market 5.0 …Previous 4.5

GMT 5:30 IST 11:00 CN Retail Sales
…Market 2.40 …Previous 2.80

GMT 5:30 IST 11:00 CN IIP (YoY)
…Market 5.90 …Previous 6.30

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Trade Bal
…Market -20.30 …Previous -14.45

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
2.18 …Market 2.50 …Previous 2.52

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Philifed Index
7.18 …Market 10.50 …Previous 18.10

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US Industrial Production
-0.11 …Market 0.10 …Previous 0.20

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
76.53 …Market 76.40 …Previous 76.30

DATA YESTERDAY
===============
GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 IN WPI
…Market 3.10 …Previous 2.13 …Actual 3.88

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
…Market 0.10 …Previous -1.52 …Actual 0.41

GMT 9:30 IST 15:00 IN Trade bal
…Market -32.75 …Previous -27.10 …Actual -20.67

GMT 20:00 IST 01:30 US TICS
106.32 …Market 58.60 …Previous 15.51 …Actual