Dollar Index breaks above the resistance at 106 and drags down Euro below 1.06. It is to be seen if the break sustains as it could bring in fresh targets of 107 and 1.05 for the Dollar index and Euro respectively. EURJPY remains ranged while USDJPY can move up towards 149-150. USDCNY and USDRUB can head higher towards 7.35 and 96-98 respectively. Aussie is ranged within 0.6390-0.65 while Pound looks bearish towards 1.21 as it has broken below 1.22. EURINR may test 87.50-87 if it trades below 88 in the near term. USDINR could continue moving higher towards 83.30.

Dollar Index (106.012) has moved up, rising above our expected interim resistance at 106. This is crucial. If the index does not fall back immediately, it could continue to remain above 106 targeting 107 on the upside.

EURUSD (1.0584) has broken below 1.06. While it remains below 1.06, a trigger to fall towards 1.05 comes into the picture. Could near term continue to be bearish for Euro? Could possibly be so. Upside if seen can be limited to 1.07.

EURJPY (157.54) has support near 157/156 above which the view could be to see a bounce towards 158-159. Broad range of 156-158/159 may hold for the near term.

Dollar-Yen (148.91) is rising slow and could be headed towards 150 soon.

USDCNY (7.3093) is also moving up slowly and could inch up towards 7.35 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6419) continues trade within 0.64-0.6450 which can hold for the near term. Overall broad range of 0.6390-0.65 may hold for the next couple of weeks.

Pound (1.2197) broke below 1.22 on a stronger Dollar and while below 1.22, it can continue to fall towards 1.2150-1.2100. View is strongly bearish on the long term charts.

USDRUB (95.8360) ha bounced while above 94 and can attempt to move up towards 96-98 soon. View is bullish above 94.

USDINR (83.15) could continue to rise towards 83.30. Thereafter it is to be seen if the pair would move up or fall back to 83.00

EURINR (87.9799) has broken below 88 and if an immediate bounce back is not seen, it can fall further towards 87.50-87.00 in the near term. Immediate upside could be limited to 89.


The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. Looks like an extended rise can happen before the expected correction comes into play. The German yields have risen sharply and are coming closer to our targets. The price action in the coming days will need close watch to see for a reversal anytime. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are back into their range and can move up within it. We retain our bullish bias for the yields to break the range on the upside and rise eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.56%) and the 30Yr (4.67%) yields have risen back sharply and are now just 4.55% and 4.65% respectively. If this sustains, then an extended rise to 4.6%-4.7% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr) looks possible before the correction to 4.3%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr) and lower happens.

The German 10Yr (2.79%) has risen sharply and the 30Yr (2.99%) has surged towards 3% much faster than expected. The 10Yr has more room from here to test 3% while the 30Yr can see 3.1% on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1853%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1796%) remain stable and are back into their 7.1%-7.25%. A rise towards the upper end of the range looks likely now. We remain bullish while above 7.1% to see a break above 7.25% and a rise to 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3% and 7.45% (5Yr).


Dow Jones has risen back and if sustains, can rise towards 34250-34300. Nifty may test its immediate support at 19500 before a bounce back can happen. DAX has declined below 15500 and looks vulnerable to fall further from here. Nikkei and Shanghai have fallen back but needs to sustain above 32200 and 3100 to avoid coming down further.

Dow (34006.88, +0.13%) has risen back from the low of 33780. While this bounce sustains a further rise to 34250-34300 can be seen and the danger of the fall to 33500-33300 will be reduced. It is a wait and watch.

DAX (15405.49, -0.98%) has declined below 15500 and looks vulnerable to break 15400 and fall to 15200-15000. The rise to 15800-16100 mentioned yesterday may not happen.

Nifty (19674.55, 0%) closed flat in a volatile session yesterday. Unless a strong rise above 19800 is seen, the fall to 19500 or lower cannot be ruled out completely.

Nikkei (32437.71, -0.74%) has fallen back from yesterday’s high of 32722. Immediate support is at 32200. While that holds, the chances of seeing a rise towards 32900-33000 will remain intact. Else it can fall towards 32000-31500.

Shanghai (3108.97, -0.21%) is coming off towards 3100. Inability to hold above 3100 can see a further fall towards 3075.


Commodities have declined and looks bearish for the near term. Brent and WTI have declined below $ 92 and $ 90 respectively and have room to come down further from here. Gold, Silver and Copper have scope to fall towards their immediate support. Natural gas has come down a bit but needs to sustain above 2.85 to avoid the danger of falling further.

Brent ($ 91.78) has fallen below $ 92 as the resistance at $ 95 is holding well. View is bearish to see a fall towards $ 90-88 while below $ 95.

WTI ($ 89.58) has come down below $ 90. A dip towards $ 88-86 looks likely before a bounce back can happen.

Gold (1932.30) has declined below 1935. A test of 1925-1920 looks likely on the downside. While 1920 holds, our 1920-1960/1965 range may remain intact for some time.

Silver (23.33) has fallen sharply, breaking below the support at 23.60/40. While this break sustains, a further dip towards 23.20-23.00-22.65 looks possible before a bounce back can happen.

Copper (3.6750) remains subdued and is hovering above 3.65. It looks vulnerable to a break below 3.65 and fall towards 3.58-3.55.

Natural Gas (2.8910) has come down a bit from yesterday’s high of 2.9370. Failure to hold above 2.85 can drag it further down towards 2.70-2.60. Upside could be capped at 3.00.


13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
Expn -0.2% …Expected 0.2% …Previous -1.2%

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 770K …Expected 699K …Previous 714K

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 109.9 …Expected 105.5 …Previous 106.1

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 83.4 …Expected 85.2 …Previous 85.5 …Actual 85.7

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 87.5 …Expected 88.0 …Previous 89.0 …Actual 88.7

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 81.1 …Expected 82.8 …Previous 82.6 …Actual 82.9