News stated that Neel Kashkari, a Federal Reserve policymaker, opined that the robust U.S. economy warranted another interest rate hike, holding it “higher for longer” to bring inflation back to the 2% mark. This aided the rise in the Dollar Index which can continue to rise towards 107-108. Euro, Pound, Aussie, EURJPY all look bearish for a fall towards 1.05, 1.21/22, 0.63 and 156 respectively. USDJPY can move up towards 149-150. USDCNY can rise slowly towards 7.35 while USDRUB can remain ranged within 94-98. EURINR may test 87.50-87 if it trades below 88 in the near term. USDINR could continue moving higher towards resistance at 83.30. But whether it will break higher or not is to be seen. Chances of a break higher looks high.

Dollar Index (106.233) is likely to head higher towards 107. While above 106, 107-108 now comes into the picture.

EURUSD (1.0563) looks strongly bearish for a fall towards 1.05-1.04 while below 1.06. A bounce if seen from current levels could take it up to 1.0650.

EURJPY (157.37) has been inching lower each day and could test 157 in the next few sessions. It could even break below 157 to fall towards 156. Near term range can be looked at 158-156.

Dollar-Yen (149.01) looks bullish for a rise towards 150.

USDCNY (7.3040) could hover around 7.30 for a few more sessions. A slow rise to 7.35 can be possible in the near term.

Aussie (0.6384) has broken below 0.6390 and could be bearish for a fall to 0.63 in the next few sessions.

Pound (1.2144) is also strongly bearish towards 1.21-1.20.

USDRUB (96.5760) shows high volatility within the 94-98 region over the last 2-days. It needs to break on the upside to turn further bullish. Till then 94-98 range could hold.

USDINR (83.2350) may test immediate resistance at 83.30 but whether it would sustain higher is to be seen. If Euro continues to fall lower, UDINR may have chances to break above 83.30 unless there is some intervention from the RBI.

EURINR (87.9298) could fall towards 87 on a sustained fall below 88.


The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The chance of seeing an extended rise is still a possibility before a corrective fall happens. The German yields sustain higher and have room to rise further before reversing lower. The 10Yr and 5Yr can dip within their sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.51%) and the 30Yr (4.65%) yields have dipped slightly. As mentioned yesterday, an extended rise to 4.6%-4.7% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr) is possibility that we are looking before a correction to 4.3%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr) and lower sets in.

The German 10Yr (2.80%) and the 30Yr (3%) sustains higher. A test of 3% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) can be seen after which a correction is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1441%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1703%) have dipped. The 7.1%-7.25% range remains intact in both the yields. The 10Yr can test the lower end of the range while the 5Yr can move down to 7.14%-7.12%. While above 7.1% we retain our bullish bias to break 7.25% and rise to 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3% and 7.45% (5Yr).


Dow Jones has fallen sharply failing to sustain the rise and may come down further to test 33300. Nifty continues to remain stable above 19600 and looks mixed. DAX can see a corrective bounce from around 15150. Nikkei has broken below the support at 32200 and looks vulnerable to fall further from here. Shanghai is likely to be ranged within 3075-3150.

Dow (33618.88, -1.14%) has tumbled failing to sustain above 34000. A test of 33300 is likely. The price action after that will need to watch to see if a bounce is happening or not.

DAX (15255.87, -0.97%) is coming down towards 15200 as expected. A corrective bounce from around 15150 towards 15300-15400 is possible before testing 15000 on the downside.

Nifty (19664.70, -0.05%) continues to remain stable above 19600 and looks mixed. As mentioned yesterday, a strong rise past 19800 is needed to avoid the danger of falling to 19500 and lower.

Nikkei (32094.55, -0.68%) has declined further below 32200. It can now fall towards 31500 or even lower towards 31000.

Shanghai (3109.41, +0.23%) sustains above 3100. Immediate support is at 3075 and resistance at 3150. Overall a range of 3075-3150 could hold for the near term.


Brent and WTI have bounced back sharply as the support at $ 90 and $ 88 have held well. Gold, Silver and Copper continues to dip and look bearish for a test of their immediate support. Natural gas outlook is mixed.

Brent ($ 93.18) fell to $ 90.43 yesterday in line with expectations and has risen back sharply from there to trade above $ 93. If the bounce sustains, it may rise towards $ 95. A range of $ 90-95 could persist for some time.

WTI ($ 91.21) tested $ 88.19 yesterday in line with expectation and has bounced back well from there to trade above $ 91. It has to surpass $ 92 to strengthen the momentum towards $ 94-95. Else it could trade sideways within $ 92-88 for some time.

Gold (1918.20) has declined below the support at 1920. While below 1920, a further dip towards 1900 looks likely.

Silver (23.03) has come down towards 23.00 as expected. A test of key support at 22.65-22.50 look likely before a bounce back can be seen.

Copper (3.6460) has fallen below 3.65 and looks bearish for a fall towards 3.58-3.55.

Natural Gas (2.8710) tested a low of 2.7960 yesterday and has bounced back from there. Outlook is mixed. A range of 2.90-2.80 could hold for a while.


12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 1.9% …Expected -0.5% …Previous -5.2%

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
Expn -0.2% …Expected 0.2% …Previous -1.2% …Actual 0.1%

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 770K …Expected 699K …Previous 739K …Actual 675K

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 109.9 …Expected 105.5 …Previous 108.7 …Actual 103