Dollar Index continues to remain bullish towards 107-108. Euro, Pound and EURJPY look bearish for a fall towards 1.0450-1.04, 1.21/20 and 156 respectively. USDJPY can move up towards 150-152 before pausing the rally. Aussie can fall to 0.63 while below 0.6450. USDCNY can rise slowly towards 7.35 while USDRUB can move up within 94-98 range. EURINR may test 87-86 if it continues trade below 88 in the near term. USDINR could continue moving higher towards resistance at 83.30; if breaks can bring in 83.50 into the picture.

Dollar Index (106.70) may pause after testing 107. While above 106, 107-108 is the upside target.

EURUSD (1.0499) continues to look bearish towards 1.0450-1.04 before a pause is seen.

EURJPY (156.88) has broken below 157 but can bounce back from lower support at 156. Failure to hold above 156 in the medium term will make it vulnerable to a sharp fall towards 154. Watch price action near 156.

Dollar-Yen (149.40) looks bullish for a rise towards 150-152 from where a crucial reversal can be expected.

USDCNY (7.3116) is moving up slowly and can soon target 7.35/38 while above 7.30.

Aussie (0.6370) is bearish towards 0.63 while below 0.6450.

Pound (1.2132) is strongly bearish towards 1.21-1.20.

USDRUB (97.0729) is moving towards the upper end of the 94-98 range and a break above 98 would trigger a further rise to 99-100 soon. Till then the 98-94 range may hold well.

USDINR (83.2350) traded within the narrow 83.2425-83.1850 range yesterday. We continue to look at resistance holding near 83.30 but if the price breaks higher, a higher target of 83.50 will come into the picture. Watch price action near 83.30.

EURINR (87.4184) could be bearish towards 87-86 in the coming days. View is strongly bearish below 88.


The US Treasury yields have risen sharply and have room to rise further. The US PCE data release tomorrow will be important to watch and that can impact the yield movement. The German yields continue to move up in line with our expectation and can rise further. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continue to remain stuck inside their range. Immediate outlook is mixed, and the range can remain intact for some more time.

The US 10Yr (4.61%) and the 30Yr (4.71%) yields have risen sharply and are heading towards 4.6%-4.7% and 4.75%-4.8% respectively. Need to see if the expected correction to 4.3%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr) comes into play after that or not.

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and the 30Yr (3.02%) continues to move higher. The 10Yr is heading up towards 3% and the 30Yr can test 3.1%. Thereafter a correction is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1704%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1772%) remain stable and mixed within their 7.1%-7.25% range. The range is intact for now. We expect a breakout above 7.25% and a rise to 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3% and 7.45% (5Yr) eventually while they sustain above 7.1%.


Dow Jones tested 33300 as expected and has bounced back from there. Nifty needs a strong break above 19800 to bring back the bullishness. DAX is coming closer to a key support level of 15150. Nikkei to remain bearish for the nerm term. Shanghai is to be range bound within 3075-3150.

Dow (33550.27, -0.20%) tested 33300 as expected and has bounced back. Need to see if this bounce sustains in order to avoid a deeper fall to 32800.

DAX (15217.45, -0.25%) is coming closer to a key support level of 15150. As mentioned yesterday, a corrective bounce to 15300-15400 is a possibility before extending the fall to 15000.

Nifty (19716.45, +0.26%) has risen back well from the low of 19554. A strong follow-through rise above 19800 from here can bring back the bullishness to revisit 20000 levels. The movement for the rest of the week is very important.

Nikkei (31717.50, -1.92%) continues to fall and has scope to come down towards 31500 or even 31000.

Shanghai (3110.25, +0.09%) appears ranged above 3100. We expect a range of 3075-3150 to hold for the near term.


Brent and WTI have risen sharply above $ 95 and $ 94 respectively after the EIA report that US crude stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels last week to 416.3 million barrels thereby adding woes to tight global supply. Gold has declined sharply breaking below the support at 1900 and looks vulnerable to fall further from here. Silver is near its key support at 22.50/40. Need to see if that holds or not. Copper remains bearish for the near term. Natural gas lacks momentum to rise above 2.95 and is likely to trade within 2.95-2.80 for a while.

Brent ($ 95.12) has risen well above our expected level of $ 95. A sustained break above $ 96 can take it higher towards $ 100.

WTI ($ 94.71) has risen sharply above $ 94 breaking above $ 92. It may rise further towards $ 96-97.50 from here. Thereafter, a further break above $ 97.50, if seen, can trigger a rise towards $ 99-100.

Gold (1891.10) has fallen sharply, breaking below the support at 1900. While this break sutsians, a further dip towards 1860-1850 can be seen.

Silver (22.72) has declined towards the support at 22.65-22.50 as expected. Failure to hold above 22.65/22.50/22.40 would be further bearish for a fall towards 22.

Copper (3.6405) remains lower below 3.65. Bias is bearish for a fall towards 3.58-3.55. On the upside, resistance is seen at 3.67-3.70.

Natural Gas (2.9050) is lacking strength to break above 2.95. A range of 2.95-2.80 (revised from 2.90-2.80) could hold for a while. A sustained break above 2.95 could pave the way towards 3.


9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 94.2 …Expected 92.5 …Previous 93.3

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn – …Expected 2.3% …Previous 2.1%

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 1.9% …Expected -0.5% …Previous -5.6% …Actual 0.2%