Small uptick in US initial jobless claims (204k from earlier 202k), stable US GDP (Q/Q% an Y/Y%) and lower German inflation (4.5% Y/Y% from earlier 6.1%) have led to a softer Dollar Index as Euro has risen and could lead to a test of 105.50 on the index and 1.06 or slightly higher on the Euro before resuming the medium term trend again. Pound, Aussie and EURJPY have risen well but need to continue rising to prevent a fall towards earlier expected levels. USDJPY can move up towards 150-152 before pausing the rally. USDCNY can trade within 7.28-7.32 while Dollar Index trades lower. USDRUB can remain within 94-98 range. EURINR is highly volatile within the 87-88 range. USDINR could come down to 83.00-82.90 while below resistance at 83.30.

Dollar Index (106.028) tested 106.839 on Wednesday and has been coming off rom there over the past 2-sessions. If the fall continues, we may allow for a corrective fall extending upto 105.50 in the next few sessions.

EURUSD (1.0578) has bounced well from 1.0488 over the past 2-days and if the rise continues, we can expect a rise to 1.06-1.0650 before pausing.

EURJPY (158.04) has moved up sharply from 157.87 itself and could head towards 158-159 on the upside. Range of 157-159 seems to be holding for now.

Dollar-Yen (149.42) continues to look bullish for a rise towards 150. Markets remain cautious at 150.

USDCNY (7.3005) has dipped slightly and could remain ranged within 7.32-7.28 region for a while before attempting to move up again.

Aussie (0.6458) has moved up sharply breaking above 0.6450. If the price manages to remain above 0.64, a rise to 0.65 looks possible over the next 2-sessions. Thereafter a break above 0.65 is necessary to turn bullish for the medium term.

Pound (1.2219) has moved up, holding above 1.21. The current rise could be a correction which can extend upto 1.2250-1.23 but in the longer run, a sustained rise above 1.23 is needed to become bullish.

USDRUB (96.6445) has fallen within the 98-94 range and may continue to trade within this range for some more time.

USDINR (83.19) can fall to 83.00-82.90 while below resistance at 83.30. Thereafter it is to be seen if an attempt is made to re-test 83.30 and move higher.

EURINR (87.9597) has moved up well but needs to break above 88 and sustain to prevent further fall towards 87 again.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and are likely to move up further before a reversal is seen. The US PCE data release will need a close watch to see how it impacts the yields. The German yields continue to move up and are coming closer to our expected level. Need to see if a reversal is happening going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr have surged within their range. It will have to be seen if the expected upside range breakout is happening now or not.

The US 10Yr (4.58%) has dipped slightly while the 30Yr (4.71%) remains stable. A test of 4.6%-4.7% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.8% (30Yr) looks likely before a corrective fall to 4.3%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr) is seen.

The German 10Yr (2.93%) and the 30Yr (3.08%) are moving up towards 3% and 3.1% respectively. We will have to see if a correction is beginning after that.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2414%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.2490%) have seen a sharp rise. They are now poised at the upper end of their 7.1%-7.25% range. We retain our bullish bias for the yields to break 7.25% and rise to 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3% and 7.45% (5Yr). Need to see if this break is happening now or not.

Dow Jones sustains above 33300 but has to rise past 33800 to reduce the danger of falling again. Nifty has declined sharply yesterday and looks bearish to come down further below 19500. DAX has bounced back as the support at 15150 has held well and is likely to move up further on the upside. Nikkei is bearish while it remains below the resistance at 32500. Shanghai is to remain range bound for the near term.

Dow (33666.34, +0.35%) is holding above 33300. But it will have to rise past 33800 to reduce the danger of the fall to 33000-32800 and to 34000 and higher.

The support at 15150 has held well and the DAX (15323.50, +0.70%) has bounced back from the low of 15138. While this bounce sustains a further rise to 15450-15600 is possible.

Nifty (19523.55, -0.98%) declined sharply yesterday. It looks vulnerable to see an extended fall to 19400-19350-19200 before a reversal is seen.

Nikkei (31876, +0.08%) remains lower below 32000. Resistance is at 32500. While below 32500, view is bearish for a fall towards 31500-31000.

Shanghai (3110.47, +0.10%) is consolidating in a narrow range of 3100-3125. View is mixed. Overall, we can expect it to trade sideways within 3075-3150 for the near term.

Brent and WTI have fallen back sharply failing to sustain the rise but the near term support are likely to hold and produce a bounce back from there. Gold remains vulnerable below 1900. Silver has bounced back as the support at 22.50 has held well. Copper has risen back sharply but needs to surpass 3.75/3.76 to target its next resistance. Natural gas has risen sharply towards 3.0. A break above 3.0 can be further bullish towards 3.25.

Brent ($ 93.29) has fallen back to levels below $ 94 after testing a high of $ 95.34. Immediate support is seen at $ 92-91.50. While these holds, we can expect a bounce back towards $ 95-96 again.

WTI ($ 92.03) has fallen back sharply after testing a high of $ 95.01. Immediate support is at $ 90-89. While these hold, a rise back towards $ 94-95 is possible.

Gold (1883.10) continues to dip. View remains bearish for a fall towards 1860-1850 while below 1900.

Silver (23.06) has bounced back as the support at 22.50 has held well. While above 22.50/22.40, there is scope for a rise towards 23.20.

Copper (3.7340) has bounced back sharply towards 3.75 from yesterday’s low of 3.6255 contrary to our view for a fall towards 3.58-3.55. A sustained break above 3.75-3.76 could pave the way towards the resistance at 3.80 which may halt the current rally.

Natural Gas (2.9870) has risen sharply towards 3 breaking above 2.95. A further break above 3.00, if seen, can open doors towards 3.25.

23:30 5:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected 2.6% …Previous 2.7%

6:00 11:30 UK GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.5% …Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.2%

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 94.2 …Expected 92.5 …Previous 93.6 …Actual 93.3

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn – …Expected 2.3% …Previous 2.1% …Actual 2.1%