US ADP employment data today and NFP tomorrow would be crucial to watch. A rise in the ADP employment data if seen today can aid further Dollar strength and could take Euro lower else we may expect a short reversal. Overall Dollar Index and Euro could trade within 108-107 and 1.05-1.04. Pound, Aussie and EURJPY need to bounce and hold above 1.20, 0.63 and 156 respectively in the next few sessions to avoid further decline. USDJPY can trade within 148-150. USDRUB has broken above 100 and could see a slow rise towards 102-102.50. EURINR needs to bounce from 87 else could decline towards 86. USDINR can rise to 83.25/30 while above support at 83. Today’s range could be 83.25-83.10.

Dollar Index (107.135) continues to hold the upside trade and could test 107.50-108 before a potential pause is seen.

EURUSD (1.0463) could take a few sessions to dip towards 1.04 while below 1.05. Thereafter, a bounce back towards 1.05+ can be seen over the next couple of weeks. For now, 1.05-1.04 region could hold.

EURJPY (156.21) also fell sharply to 154.38 but has bounced back to current levels. A rise to 157 can be possible over today and tomorrow.

Dollar-Yen (149.30) dipped to 147.27 but managed to close at 148.98 yesterday. Currently trading higher at 149.30, there is scope for a test of 150. Overall broad range of 148-150 may hold for now.

USDCNY (7.3005) is in a week long holiday and may continue to rise when market resumes next week.

Aussie (0.6303) trades just above 0.63. If it does not manage to bounce back immediately, it could be vulnerable to sharp decline towards 0.62. Watch price action over the next 2-sessions.

Pound (1.2065) is headed towards 1.20 from where a possible bounce can be expected on first testing towards 1.21-1.22. Watch price action near 1.20 for a potential bounce.

USDRUB (100.0955) has risen breaking above 100 as expected. The rising momentum looks strong and could take it towards 102-102.50 sooner than expected. View is bullish.

USDINR (83.21) traded within the narrow 83.1650-83.2325 region yesterday. Today, we may expect a broad range of 83.10-83.25 to hold with crucial resistance seen around 83.30.

EURINR (87.0838) must bounce from 87 else could be vulnerable to a sharp fall towards 86. Watch price action at 87.

The US Treasury yields have surged well beyond our expected levels. If this momentum sustains, the expected corrective fall may not happen, and the yields can rise more straight away towards the next target. The German yields continue to rise. The outlook remains bullish, and more rise is on the cards. The 10Yr GoI stays within the range while the 5Yr has just broken the range on the upside as expected. View is bullish to break the range on the upside and rise going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.81%) and the 30Yr (4.95%) have surged well above our expected 4.75% and 4.85% respectively. If this momentum sustains, the expected correction may not happen and the 10Yr can test 5%. The 30Yr can surge to 5.2% if it breaks above 5%.

The German 10Ysr (2.96%) and the 30Yr (3.20%) continues to move up. The y can test 3.1% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr) in the coming days.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2327%) stays well within the 7.1%-7.25% range while the 5Yr GOI (7.2539%) has just risen above 7.25%. We retain our bullish view of the yields breaking above 7.25% and rising to 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3%-7.45% (5Yr).

Dow Jones is heading down towards 32800 from where a reversal might be possible. Nikkei has declined further below 31000 but needs to hold above the support at 30500 to avoid further downside risk. Nifty and DAX looks bearish for the near term.

Dow (33002.38, -1.29%) is heading down towards 32800 as expected. 32800-32700 is an important support zone where the price action will need a close watch for a reversal.

DAX (15085.21, -1.06%) has declined below 15200 as expected. It can test 14800 on the downside now.

Nifty (19528.75, -0.56%) can test 19400 and can extend the fall to 19200-19000 if it breaks below it. From a big picture a fall beyond 19000 is less likely.

Nikkei (30673.50, -1.73%) has fallen sharply towards 30500 breaking below 31000. If 30500 holds, it may bounce back towards 31500. Else it would be vulnerable to a fall towards 30000-29500.

Shanghai (3110.48) is closed today and will remain closed till Friday.

Brent has bounced back as the support at $ 89 seems to holding well. WTI too has bounced back from a low $ 87.76 but needs to surpass $ 90.50 to reduce the downside pressure. Gold, Silver and Copper remains bearish for a fall towards their support before a reversal can happen. Natural gas appears range bound within 3.00-2.80.

Brent ($ 90.87) bounced back after testing a low of $ 89.52 yesterday. As long as it holds above the support at $ 89, a rise towards $ 92-93 looks possible. Only a strong break below $ 89 will bring $ 87 into picture.

WTI ($ 89.22) has risen back after testing a low of $ 87.76 yesterday. If the bounce sustains, a rise towards $ 90.50 can be seen. IT has to rise past $ 90.50 to reduce the downside pressure and to rise towards $ 92. Else a fall towards $ 86-85 cannot be negated.

Gold (1837.10) remains subdued. View is bearish to see a fall towards 1800 while it stays below 1850. Thereafter we can expect a reversal from there.

Silver (21.23) has bounced back a bit after testing a low of 20.87 yesterday. However, bias is still bearish for a fall towards 20.50-20 before a reversal can happen.

Copper (3.5955) has come down further below 3.60. A test of 3.55 looks likely on the downside before a pause can be seen. Failure to hold above 3.55 can see an extended fall to 3.50.

Natural Gas (2.9430) has rebounded from a low of 2.82 seen yesterday. It appears range bound within 3.00-2.80. A break on either side of the range will decide it will rise towards 3.3 or falls towards 2.70-2.65.

22:30 04:00 AU PMI
Expn -22.2 …Expected – …Previous -19.8

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.7% …Expected -0.5% …Previous -0.2%

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 155K …Previous 177K

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.10% …Previous 4.10% …Actual 4.10%

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 59.5 …Expected – …Previous 58.6 …Actual 57.5

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn – …Expected 1.8 …Previous 1.5 …Actual 1.6