Dollar Index and Euro may trade within 105-107 and 1.06-1.05 in the near term. Aussie and Pound have bounced slightly but may soon resume downtrend by the end of this week. EURJPY is bearish while below 158. USDCNY can slowly inch higher towards 7.35. USDJPY can trade within 150-148 while USDRUB may trade within 95-101/102.50. EURINR and USDINR may continue trade within 88-87 and 83.10/15-83.30 for a few more sessions.

Dollar Index (106.54) seems to be holding below 107 which can push the index down towards 106 or lower. A broad range of 107-105 may hold for this week.

EURUSD (1.0524) fell sharply from 1.0650 to 1.05 last week but seems to move up while above 1.05. A short rise to 1.0550-1.0580 looks possible before the resumption of fall again.

EURJPY (157.27) has scope to fall to 156-155.50 while below 158.

Dollar-Yen (149.45) can fall to test immediate support near 148.60 which if holds can produce a bounce back towards 150. Immediate range of 150-148.60 may hold for the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.3037) has been slowly inching higher and needs to sustain above 7.30 to slowly rise towards 7.35. View is bullish for the next few sessions.

Aussie (0.6321) tested 0.6286 on Friday but has bounced back a bit from there. There could be some scope to see a rise to 0.6350 before resuming the fall towards 0.6250-0.6200 soon.

Pound (1.2156) could trade within 1.21-1.23 region for this week. A break below 1.21 if seen will be strongly bearish.

USDRUB (97.6003) is highly volatile within 95-101 region and could possibly continue so for the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.2675) continues to fluctuate within 83.10/15-83.30 region. But we may soon expect a break out on either side of the range.

EURINR (87.62) is likely to trade within 88-87 region.

The US Treasury yields have to sustain above their immediate support to move up again and avoid more fall. The German yields have room to fall further from here before reversing higher again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can bounce back in the coming days if they manage to sustain above their immediate support.

The US 10Yr (4.66%) and the 30Yr (4.81%) yields remain stable. They have to sustain above 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) to move up to 4.8%-4.85% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) again. That will avoid the fall to 4.5%-4.4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.73%) and the 30Yr (2.92%) have dipped again. While below 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) the fall to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) first cannot be avoided. Thereafter a fresh rise is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3166%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3292%) have bounced slightly. 7.28% (10Yr) and 7.3% (5Yr) are immediate supports while above which a corrective bounce to 7.38% (10Yr) and 7.4% (5Yr) is a possibility.

Dow Jones continues its struggle to breach 33900 decisively. DAX has come down sharply and looks vulnerable to test its immediate support. Nifty is bullish while above the support at 19600. Nikkei has fallen back failing to rise past 32500. Need to see if Nikkei holds above the support at 31500 or not. Shanghai has declined but the downside seems limited to 3050.

Dow (33670.29, +0.12%) continues its struggle to breach 33900 decisively. We repeat a decisive break above 33900 is needed for a rise to 34000-34300. Else a break below 33500 and a fall to 33000-32800 again cannot be avoided.

DAX (15186.66, -1.55%) has come down sharply and remains vulnerable to test 14800 on the downside.

Nifty (19751.05, -0.22%) is holding well above 19600 and keeps intact our bullish view of revisiting 20000 levels.

Nikkei (31713.50, -1.78%) has fallen back failing to rise past 32500. Immediate support is 31500. If that holds, our view to see a rise towards 33000 may remain intact. Else it would be vulnerable to a fall towards 31000-30500.

Shanghai (3070.53, -0.57%) is coming off towards 3060. Immediate support is at 3050. While that holds, we expect a range of 3050-3125 to hold for some time.

Crude prices rose sharply Last Friday due to the geopolitical tension between Israel-Hamas. There are concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict may have an impact on the region’s oil production. Gold and Silver too have surged amid the geopolitical tensions but have key immediate resistance which may hold and produce a reversal from there. Copper has risen back a bit but could face rejections from 3.62/3.63. Natural gas can fall towards 3.10/3.00.

Brent ($ 90.98) has risen sharply above $ 90 contrary to our view for a fall towards $ 83-82. A sustained break above $ 91 can lead to a rise towards $ 94.

WTI ($ 87.72) too has surged towards $ 88 contrary to our view to see a dip towards $ 80-$ 78. A sustained break above $ 88 is needed to strengthen the momentum towards $ 90 or higher.

Gold (1933.90) surged to a high of 1946.20 last Friday contrary to our view and has dipped from there. Key immediate resistance is seen at 1950. While that holds, a fall back towards 1900 can be seen.

Silver (22.83) rose sharply to 22.99 contrary to our view of a fall from 22.50. Key resistance is at 23. While that holds, a fall back towards 22.40-22 looks possible.

Copper (3.5910) has bounced back as the support at 3.55 seems to be holding well for now. For now, the 3.70-3.55 range remains intact. Within this immediate resistance is seen at 3.62/3.63. If that holds, Copper would be vulnerable to a break below 3.55 and fall towards 3.50 or lower.

Natural Gas (3.1430) has fallen below 3.20. A further dip towards 3.10/3.00 looks possible. If 3.00 holds well, a bounce-back towards 3.30-3.40 can be seen.

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn -0.36% …Expected -0.50% …Previous -0.52%

9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected 5.4 …Previous 2.9

DATA FRIDAY:
————–
1:30 7:00 CN CPI (YoY)
Expn – …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.1 …Actual 0.0

1:30 7:00 CN PPI
Expn – …Expected -2.4 …Previous -3.0 …Actual – 2.5

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 1.0% …Expected 0.1% …Previous -1.3% …Actual 0.6%

9:00 14:30 IN Trade bal
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -24.16 …Actual – 19.37