The Dollar Index may continue trade within the narrow region of 106-106.7, Euro has a fair chance of rising towards 1.0650 if it sustains above 1.06. EURJPY failed to rise past 159 and can trade within 157-159 while USDJPY continues to remain flat below 150. USDCNY dipped slightly after testing 7.3230 on the upside; can be bullish above 7.30. Pound and Aussie may trade within the range of 1.21-1.2250 & 0.62-0.64 respectively. USDRUB has dipped below its support of 96, revised range could be 98-94. USDINR needs to sustain the fall seen last week to fall to 82.90 else can rise back towards 83.30 again. EURINR can fall to 87.50 or lower while below 88.25/88.00.

Dollar Index (106.16) has been trading within a narrow range of 106.70-106 over the last few days and needs to break on either side to give clarity on further direction. Bias is still bullish towards 107-108 while the index remains above 106. A break below 106 if seen can take the index down to 105.50-105.00.

EURUSD (1.0579) needs to sustain its rise past 1.06 to rise further towards 1.0650. Else a fall to 1.0550-1.05 can be possible.

EURJPY (158.57) tested 159 but could not break higher and has instead dipped slightly from there. Unless a strong break past 159 is seen, it may continue to trade within the range of 157-59.

Dollar-Yen (149.90) has remained flat in the last 3-4 sessions but the view remains intact to see a rise past 150 to move up towards crucial resistance of 151/152 before a long-term reversal is seen. Else, failure to rise past 150 will drag it back to 149 or lower again.

USDCNY (7.3166) rose to the level of 7.3239 before coming down but while it remains above 7.30, view remains bullish for it to see a rise towards 7.33/35.

Aussie (0.6309) has dipped to test support at 0.63-0.6280 region. Failure to bounce back from the said region will open doors for a further decline towards 0.6250-0.62. Else, a bounce from 0.6280 is needed for a rise back to 0.64. Overall 0.62-0.64 range is likely to hold.

Pound (1.2150) had attempted to break below 1.21 last week but could not sustain and has bounced back sharply to current levels. The immediate upside could be limited to 1.22-1.2250 while a fall back to 1.21 or lower cannot be negated in the near term. Overall, a broad range of 1.2250-1.21 may hold for a while.

USDRUB (95.6750) has dipped below its earlier mentioned support of 96. A fall to 95-94 cannot be negated while immediate upside could be capped at 98.

USDINR (83.1275) fell below 83.20 last week but the fall needs to sustain for the pair to fall further towards 83.00-82.90. Failure to sustain below 83.20 for long could bring it back to test 83.30 and higher eventually.

EURINR (87.9759) has resistance at 88.25 below which view remains bearish to see a fall towards 87.50 in the coming sessions.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply on Friday. A further fall from here can trigger a correction this week. The German yields have also dipped slightly. But broadly the view remains bullish. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting outcome is due on Thursday this week. There is room to rise further before a corrective fall begins. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate in a narrow range for some time.

The US 10Yr (4.89%) and the 30Yr (4.95%) yields have come down sharply. A further fall from here can trigger a corrective fall to 4.7%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.8% (30Yr) this week. That will delay the rise to 5.1% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.89%) and the 30Yr (3.09%) yields have dipped slightly. The view remains the same. The 10Yr can test 3% and the 30Yr can rise to 3.2%-3.25% on a break above 3.1%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3626%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3605%) have dipped slightly. We expect them to oscillate inside the 7.3%-7.4% (10Yr) and 7.3%-7.4%/7.45% (5Yr) range. A range breakout will give clarity on the next move.

Dow Jones, Nifty and Nikkei look vulnerable to fall towards their support level. Dax might see a corrective bounce from 14700. Shanghai has declined further, breaking below 2985 but has long term supports coming at 2950-2900 which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back from there.

Dow (33127.28, -0.86%) has broken below 33400 as expected. It can test 33000 now and can extend the fall even up to 32850 before seeing a bounce.

DAX (14798.47, -1.64%) is coming down towards 14700 as expected. A corrective bounce from 14700 to 15000 and higher is a possibility before the overall downtrend resumes again.

Nifty (19542.65, -0.42%) can test 19450-19400 in line with our expectation. 19400-19850 can be the trading range for now. A breakout on either side of this range will determine whether 20000 or 19200-19100 will be seen.

Nikkei (31056.00, -0.65%) continues to dip. Outlook remains bearish to see a fall towards 30500 or even lower towards 30100-30000.

Shanghai (2955.39, -0.93%) has broken sharply below the support at 2985. Key long term support is seen at 2950. Failure to hold above it can see an extended fall to 2900 before bouncing back from there.

Brent and WTI have declined as the resistance at $ 94-95 and $ 90 respectively have held well. Outlook is bearish for crude prices for the near term. Gold and Silver have fallen back from friday’s high but have immediate support which may hold and keep the overall uptrend intact. Copper looks vulnerable to test its lower end of the range. Natural gas continues to fall and has scope to test its immediate support before a possible bounce back can happen.

Brent ($ 91.34) has declined below $ 91.50 as the resistance mentioned at $ 94-95 has held well. A fall towards $ 90-89 looks likely.

WTI ($ 87.20) has fallen as the resistance at $ 90 has held well. While below $ 90, a dip towards $ 86-85 can be seen.

Gold (1981.80) has come down after testing a high of 2009.20 last friday. Key support is at 1950-1940, while above which, our view will remain bullish for a rise towards 2025-2030.

Silver (23.39) has fallen back from a high of 23.88. Immediate support is at 22.50. While that holds, a range of 22.50-24 may persist for some time before breaking higher towards 25.

Copper (3.5415) is coming down towards the lower end of the 3.50-3.65 range. A break below 3.50, if seen, can be bearish for a fall towards 3.40.

Natural Gas (2.8830) continues to dip. Outlook remains bearish for a test of 2.80-2.75 before a possible bounce back can happen.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY:
————–
23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -16 …Expected -20 …Previous -21 …Actual – 30

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn 3.2 …Expected – …Previous 3.1 … Actual 3.0