The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has risen against expectations. The Dollar Index did fall to levels below 106 yesterday but has managed to bounce back above 106 again while Euro has fallen sharply from 1.07 and could trade within 1.07-1.0550 for a while now. EURJPY has fallen from 160 and could trade lower within 157-160 for a while as USDJPY continues to remain flat below 150 for now with potential to eventually break higher. USDCNY may continue to trade within 7.2950-7.32. Pound and Aussie may trade within the range of 1.21-1.2350 & 0.63-0.6450 respectively. USDRUB can hold above immediate support at 92.50 and rise towards 94-96 but we may have to allow for a fall to 90 in the medium term on a break below 92.50. USDINR may trade within 83.00-83.30 with decent support in the 82.80-83.00 region. EURINR can trade within 87.50-89

Dollar Index (106.194) saw a sharp fall to 105.36 yesterday but could not sustain and has instead bounced back to current levels. We may expect a range of 106.50-105.50/105 to hold for the near term. A fall looks likely while below 106.50.

EURUSD (1.0597) had risen to 1.0694 yesterday but has fallen back sharply from there. We may expect a broad range of 1.07-1.0550 to hold for a while.

EURJPY (158.77) had risen past its consolidation zone of 157-159 to test 159.916 but could not sustain and started to decline. Immediate support is seen at 158 above which it has fair chances of again rising back towards 159-160 else a break below 158, if seen will be strongly bearish but looks less likely just now.

Dollar-Yen (149.83) has sustained itself quite well above its support of 149 but has not been able to break past 150. For now, our view remains intact to see a rise past 150 to move up towards crucial resistance of 151/152 while above 149.40 which is an immediate support below current level.

USDCNY (7.3085) is unable to rise past 7.32 and has dipped back to current level. Immediate support is seen near 7.2950 above which there is scope for a range trade of 7.2950-7.32 over the next few sessions.

Aussie (0.6390) has scope to rise towards 0.6450 before a reversal is seen from there back towards 0.6350-0.63. Broad range of 0.6450-0.63 may hold for the near term.

Pound (1.2171) could trade below 1.2350 while immediate downside could be limited to 1.21. Range of 1.21—1.2350 may hold unless a break on either side is seen.

USDRUB (94.3307) has risen from 92.50 and while the rise sustains, the pair can rise towards 96-97 again. But looking at the medium-term charts, there is scope for a fall to 90 in the coming days. Immediate range of 92.50-97 may hold with potential to fall towards 90.

USDINR (83.1975) is likely to trade within 83.30-83.00 for the next few days. Unless a break on either side is seen, it could be difficult to project further movement from here.

EURINR (88.0111) fell sharply from 88.74 and could fall to 87.50 on the downside. Broad range of 87-89 may hold for the coming days.

The US Treasury yields and German yields have fallen but could soon bounce from near term supports. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate in a narrow range for some time but has immediate supports below current levels which has potential to produce a decent rise.

The US 10Yr (4.827%) and the 30Yr (4.951%) yields have come down sharply over the last 2-sessions. A further fall from here looks possible towards 4.7%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.7% (30Yr) this week. Thereafter a possible attempt to rise back towards 5.1% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) can be possible.

The German 10Yr (2.822%) and the 30Yr (3.036%) yields have also fallen. View remains bearish to see a fall towards 280-2.75% (10Yr) and 3.0-2.9% (30Yr) respectively in the near term. Our earlier expected rise to 3.2%-3.25% could be delayed for aa while now.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3769%) has immediate resistance near 7.40% below which a fall towards 7.36%-7.34% looks likely. Only a break above 7.40% can turn the view bullish for a rise towards 7.42/44% in the longer run.

The 5Yr GOI (7.3714%) also has immediate support at 7.35% which if holds can be bullish for a rise towards 7.425% in the coming sessions.

Dow Jones has bounced back as expected but has to rise past 33400 to reduce the downside pressure. DAX and Nikkei can see a short corrective rise before resuming the fall again. Nifty can test 19100-19000 on the downside. Shanghai has recovered and has scope to rally towards its resistance while above 2900.

As expected, Dow (33141.39, +0.62%) bounced back as the support at 32850 has held well. It has to rise past 33400 to open doors towards 33800-33900. Else it would be vulnerable to a fall towards 32750-32700.

DAX (14879.94, -0.54%) has risen back from a low of 14630. A rise towards 15000 looks possible before resuming the downtrend towards 14500-14400.

Nifty (19281.75, -1.34%) has come down sharply below 19400. A test of 19100-19000 looks likely now before a bounce back can happen.

Nikkei (31411.00, -1.12%) tested 30551.67 yesterday in line with our view for a fall towards 30500 and has bounced back sharply from there. A test of 32000 looks possible on the upside before resuming its fall again.

Shanghai (2991.29, +0.98%) has risen back after getting support at 2925. There is scope for a rise towards 3050-3075 while it remains above 2900.

Brent and WTI have declined sharply and may come down further while they remain below $ 89 and $ 84 respectively. Gold is oscillating within 2000-1960. Silver can remain ranged within 22.50/80-24 for some time. Copper has scope to test its crucial resistance before a fall back can be seen. Natural gas looks bullish for the near term.

Brent ($ 88.06) has indeed fallen but has come down well below our expected level of $ 89. While below $ 89, a further dip towards $ 86-85.50 can be seen.

WTI ($ 83.57) has declined well below our expected level of $ 86-85. If the fall sustains below $ 84, a further dip towards $ 82-80 can be seen.

Gold (1986.40) is oscillating within 2000-1960. Bias remain bullish for a rise towards 2025-2030 while it remains above the support at 1950-1940.

Silver (23.09) is getting support at 22.80. While above 22.80-22.50, a range of 22.50/80-24 may hold for some time before breaking higher towards 25.

Copper (3.6350) has bounced back towards the upper end of the 3.65-3.50 range. A break above 3.65 can see a test of crucial resistance at 3.70 which if holds, can lead to a fall back towards 3.60 or 3.50.

Natural Gas (3.33) has risen sharply towards 3.35 (due to change in contract) and has scope to rise further towards 3.50 from here.

DATA TODAY:
1:30 07:00 AU CPI
Expn 5.6% …Expected – …Previous 6.0%

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 85 …Expected – …Previous 85.70

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 87.6 …Expected – …Previous 88.70

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 83.50 …Expected – …Previous 82.90

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 659K …Expected – …Previous 675K

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 5.00%

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.5% …Expected 4.3% …Previous 4.3% …Actual 4.2%