Most countries release PMI data today. FED policy meet is due tonight and NFP data is due on Friday. With all the important data releases, markets could remain volatile this week and early next week. Dollar Index and Euro may trade within 107-106/105 and 1.07-1.05 respectively while EURJPY rose to almost test 161 before coming off slightly and may remain bullish while above 158/157. USDJPY also rose sharply towards 152 and could trade above 150-151 for now. USDCNY looks stable. Pound looks bearish below 1.22. Aussie can trade within 0.63-0.64 for the near term. USDRUB can hold above immediate support at 92.00 and rise towards 96-98. USDINR may trade within 83.20-83.30 while EURINR can trade within 89-87.50

Dollar Index (106.719) has again risen to test resistance region of 106.80-107 which has to hold again to push the index down towards 105. Else a break past 107 will be bullish for a rise to 108-109 in the coming weeks. Watch price action near 107 which will be very crucial. FED is expected to keep rates unchanged today.

EURUSD (1.0596) fell sharply from 1.0675. Support near 1.0550-1.05 may continue to hold for the near term while immediate upside can be capped at 1.07.

EURJPY (159.86) tested 160.85 as it broken sharply above 159-160 yesterday. Falling from 161, downside could be limited to 158/157 followed by an eventual rise back towards 161-162 or higher eventually.

Dollar-Yen (151.16) rose sharply to 151.711 yesterday before coming off slightly from there after the BOJ policy announcement. Note that 152 is a crucial multi year resistance which needs to hold to establish a high for the pair for the coming months. Else, a break past 152, if seen could be strongly bullish for a further rise towards 155. Watch price action at 152.

USDCNY (7.3181) continues to trade below 7.32 and an immediate range of 7.32-7.29 could hold for a while unless a break can be seen on either side.

Aussie (0.6329) continues to trade within 0.64-0.63/6250 region with possible extension to 0.6450 and 0.62 on both sides possible. An immediate range of 0.64-0.63 may hold for this week.

Pound (1.2140) continues to hold well below 1.22 and could initially stabilize between 1.22-1.21 before falling towards 1.20 eventually. Overall view is bearish below 1.22.

USDRUB (93.3156) is holding below 94.80 and has fair scope to fall towards 90 with maximum immediate upside of 98. Narrow range of 95-91.50 and broad range of 98-90 may hold for the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.2550) is stuck below 83.30 with no volatility. We continue to wait to see some volatility set in else it is difficult to predict which way the price would move.

EURINR (88.0126) tested 88.8619 before coming off from there. Broad range of 89-87.50 may hold for the next few sessions.


The US Treasury yields are moving up. But they have to breach the upcoming resistance decisively to move further higher. Else they can continue to oscillate in a range for some more time. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome tonight will need a close watch. The German yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are looking mixed within their respective range.

The US 10Yr (4.92%) and the 30Yr (5.09%) yields are attempting to move up. The yields have to see a sustained rise past 5% (10Yr) and 5.1% (30Yr) in order to move further higher and indicate the range breakout. Else the 4.8%-5% or 4.6%-5% (10Yr) and 4.9%-5.1% or 4.8%-5.1% (30Yr) range will remain intact.

The German 10Yr (2.80%) and the 30Yr (3.09%) have dipped slightly. While above 2.7% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) the view is bullish to see 3% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.25% (30Yr) on the upside. A correction is possible after that.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3558%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3449%) yields have dipped and are looking mixed within their 7.3%-7.4% and 7.3%-7.4%/7.45% range respectively. The 10Yr looks relatively more bullish to break 7.4% and rise to 7.45% and higher.


Dow Jones is heading up towards its immediate resistance, which if holds, can produce a reversal from there. Nikkei has bounced back sharply after BoJ maintained its benchmark rate unchanged at -10bps and announced that it will utilise the upper end of its yield curve control band i.e. 1% as a reference cap for its market operations but is likely to face resistance ahead. DAX has risen slightly and a further rise from here can take it towards its resistance. Nifty and Shanghai are struggling to get a strong follow-through rise.

Dow (33052.87, +0.38%) is heading up towards 33400 in line with our expectation. The price action thereafter will need a watch for a reversal.

DAX (14810.34, +0.64%) has inched up slightly. A further rise from here can take it to the 15000-15200 resistance. Thereafter a fresh leg of fall can drag it to 14200-14000.

Nifty (19079.60, -0.32%) is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. 19400-19500 can cap the upside and keep the index under pressure to see 18700-18600 on the downside.

Nikkei (31467.50, +1.96%) has bounced back sharply from 30500 itself. But could face resistance at 31800. While that holds, outlook will remains bearish for a fall towards 30000 in the coming sessions.

Shanghai (3025.90, +0.22%) has inched up but lacks strength to rise above 3050. If it remains below 3050, a dip towards 3000-2975 might be seen.


Brent is near its key support region whereas WTI has fallen below $ 82 but has crucial support ahead. Crude price can bounces back if the support holds well. Gold and Silver have declined but downside could be limited to 1980 and 23-22.50 respectively. Copper is bearish while below resistance at 3.70. Natural gas has risen back sharply and may rise further on a break above 3.70. US FOMC meeting tonight will be crucial to watch as it will help in deciding if crude prices and precious metals will bounces back from their support level or breaks lower.

Brent ($ 85.28) is near its support region of $ 85-84. While that holds, a bounce back towards $ 87-87.50 can be seen. But failure to hold above $ 84 can bring $ 83-82 into picture.

WTI ($ 81.23) has indeed fallen below $ 82 as expected. Immediate support is at $ 80. If that holds, a bounce back towards $ 84 can be seen. But failure to bounce back from $ 80 can open doors towards $ 78.

Gold (1987.80) is heading down towards the support at 1980. While that holds, there can potential for a break above 2020 and rise towards 2025-2030. Else we have allow for a fall towards 1950.

Silver (22.79) has declined below 23. But while above the support at 22.50, the range of 22.50-24 may continue to hold for some time. Only a break lower will suggest a fall towards 22.

Copper (3.6370) is holding well below the resistance at 3.70. A dip towards 3.60 or even lower towards 3.50 can be seen while it stays below 3.70.

Natural Gas (3.5890) has bounced back sharply above 3.50 from a low of 3.3180 contrary to our view for a fall towards 3.15-3.10. A sustained break above 3.70 can open doors towards 4.0.


22:30 4:00 AU PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -12.8

0:30 6:00 JP PMI
Expn – …Expected 49.0 …Previous 48.5

1:45 7:15 CN PMI
Expn 50.5 …Expected 50.8 …Previous 50.6

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 57.6 …Expected – …Previous 57.5

8:30 14:00 CH PMI
Expn – …Expected 45.0 …Previous 44.9

9:30 15:00 UK PMI
Expn 41.8 …Expected 45.2 …Previous 44.3

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 149K …Previous 89K

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 47.5

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 48.9 …Expected 49.0 …Previous 49.0

18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
Expn – …Expected 5.50% …Previous 5.50%

23:30 5:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 2.7% …Actual 2.6%

3:00 8:30 BOJ Meeting
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -0.1% …Actual -0.1%

10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY) Flash Estimate
Expn 4.0% …Expected 3.1% …Previous 4.3% …Actual 2.9%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.0% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.0%

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 1.3% …Expected 1.8% …Previous 0.2% …Actual 2.2%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 101.0 …Expected 100.1 …Previous 103.0