Dollar Index trades lower on possible cooling off of further rate hikes but continues to trade within 105-107 region while Euro can remain within 1.05-1.07. EURJPY has bounced from 159 but while below 161 there is scope for a fall to 158. USDJPY trades above 150 and has scope to rise slowly back to 151/152. Pound can rise to 1.22-1.2250 before falling back to 1.21 while USDCNY may remain stuck around 7.30. Aussie must rise past 0.6450 to test 0.65 else can fall back towards 0.64 or lower. USDRUB can trade within 92-96 for very near term but eventual decline to 90 cannot be negated. USDINR is holding below 83.30 contrary to our expectation of seeing an upside break. The pair could remain within 83.15-83.30 for the very near term. EURINR can remain ranged within 89-87.50/87.00.

Dollar Index (106.098) has fallen sharply from 106.50 yesterday and could attempt to break below 106 to head towards 105.50-105. Thereafter it must break lower or bounce back to give clarity on further movement.

EURUSD (1.0627) has held above 1.05 again and continues to trade within 1.05-1.07 region.

EURJPY (159.78) bounced from 159 and trades higher but while below 161, we may expect a decline in early next week towards 158.

Dollar-Yen (150.40) has declined over the last 2-days from 151.68 but could test support at 150 and bounce back. Failure to hold above 150 could take the pair down to 149 before the expected reversal is seen.

USDCNY (7.3127) remains stuck above 7.30.

Aussie (0.6429) tested 0.64558 yesterday and has dipped slightly from there. While below 0.6450, view is bearish for a fall back towards 0.64 or lower. Aussie will have to break past 0.6450 and sustain higher to show signs of bullishness for the next couple of weeks.

Pound (1.2196) can test 1.22-1.2250 before falling back to 1.21. Immediate support at 1.21 seems to be holding well for now.

USDRUB (93.2470) has bounced from 90 but is unable to rise past 94. Failure to sustain past 94 can drag it down towards 92 and eventually towards 90 soon. Broad range of 90-98 and narrow range of 92-95 may hold for the near term.

USDINR (83.2475) seems to be holding below the resistance at 83.30. We may expect a range of 83.15-83.30 to hold for now.

EURINR (88.4254) trades above the crucial support at 87 and while that holds, the pair can trade in the broad 89-87 region.

The US Treasury yields continue to come down in line with our expectation. There is room to fall more before a reversal is seen again. The German yields have come close to their key supports. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them lower. That will delay the rise that we have been expecting. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down towards the lower end of their respective range. We expect the range to remain intact and the yields to rise back within it.

The US 10Yr (4.66%) and the 30Yr (4.80%) yields have declined further. They can come down towards 4.6%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr) in the coming days and then possibly move up again.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and the 30Yr (3%) have dipped towards their supports at 2.7% and 3% respectively. Failure to bounce back from here can take them down to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8%-2.85% (30Yr). That will reduce the chances of seeing the rise to 3% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.25% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.3245%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.31%) yields have come down towards the lower end of the lower end of their 7.3%-7.4% and 7.3%-7.4%/7.45% range respectively. While the downside can extend up to 7.28%, we expect the yields to bounce back and keep the sideways range intact.

Dow Jones has risen well breaking above its resistance and looks further bullish from here. DAX can see an extended rise on a break above 15200. Nifty has moved up but lacks strength. Shanghai has scope to break above its resistance at 3050 and rise further in the near term.

Contrary to our expectation, the Dow (33839.08, +1.70%) has risen well beyond the resistance at 33400-33500. It can now touch 34000-34200 and then possibly reverse lower again.

DAX (15143.60, +1.48%) can see an extended rise to 15400-15500 if it breaks above 15200. Thereafter a fresh fall to 15000 and lower levels can be seen.

Nifty (19133.25, +0.76%) has moved up but lacks strength. Upside will be capped at 19400-19500 if a rise above 19200 is seen. We can expect the Nifty to fall back again towards 19000 and keep intact our view of seeing 18700-18600 on the downside.

Nikkei (31949.89) is closed today. But has scope to rise towards 32500 while above the support at 31700.

Shanghai (3039.17, +0.99%) has risen towards the resistance at 3050. A decisive break above it can see a rally towards 3100.

Brent and WTI have risen well as their support at $ 84 and $ 80 respectively have held well and look likely to target further upside. Gold lacks strength but needs to sustain above 1980 to avoid the danger of falling. Silver may continue to remain range bound while above 22.50. Key focus is on US NFP data today which could drive the prices of precious metals. Copper is iching up towards its key resistance. Needs to see if it breaks higher or not. Natural gas is to be range bound within 3.30-3.70 for a while.

Brent ($ 86.95) has risen well as the support at $ 84 has held well. A sustained break above $ 87 can see a rally towards $ 89-90.

WTI ($ 82.62) has risen above $ 82 as the support at $ 80 has held well. A rise towards $ 84 looks possible. Thereafter a further break above $ 84, if seen, can lead to a rise towards $ 86.

Gold (1992.70) lacks strength to rise above 2000. It has to sustain above 1980 to keep our bullish view intact for a break above 2020 and rise towards 2025-2030. Else a fall towards 1960-1950 can be seen.

Silver (22.81) has fallen back failing to sustain the rise above 23. The 22.50-24 range may continue to hold for a while. Only a strong break below 22.50, if seen, can trigger a fall towards 22.

Copper (3.6950) is inching up towards 3.70. A break above 3.70-3.73, if seen, can trigger a rise towards 3.80. Else a dip towards 3.60 cannot be negated.

Natural Gas (3.5080) looks mixed. A range of 3.30-3.70 may hold for a while.

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 61.0

10:00 15:30 EU Unemp
Expn – …Expected 6.4% …Previous 6.4%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 286K …Expected 178K …Previous 336K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.7% …Expected 3.8% …Previous 3.8%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.1% …Expected – …Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 20.2K …Previous 63.8K

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
0:30 6:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 9.6 …Previous 10.16 …Actual 6.79

7:30 13:00 CH CPI
Expn – …Expected 1.7 …Previous 1.6 …Actual 1.7

9:00 14:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 43.0 …Previous 43.4 …Actual 43.1

12:00 17:30 BOE Mtg
Expn – …Expected 5.3% …Previous 5.3% …Actual 5.25

12:00 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
Expn – …Expected 2-0-7 …Previous 4-0-5 …Actual 3-0-6