Dollar Index can test 105.50-105.80 before falling again while Euro can attempt to rise back towards 1.08 while above 1.07. EURJPY has dipped from 161 and can take it lower for a few days before resuming to rise to 162. USDJPY has risen above 150 and can test 151+ levels soon. Aussie could test 0.6450 before again moving up while Pound looks bearish below 1.24 USDCNY could rise to 7.30 before falling back towards 7.26/25. USDRUB could range within 94.50-91.40. USDINR may continue trade within 83.10-83.30. EURINR has risen well and could head towards 90-91.

Dollar Index (105.326) tested 104.84 yesterday before bouncing back to current levels. While above 105, the index can slowly move up to test 105.50-105.80 before resuming the fall back towards 105 or lower.

EURUSD (1.0711) has dipped from 1.0756 but while above 1.07, there could be chances of rising back towards 1.08 eventually. On the downside, a break below 1.07 can take it to 1.0650 before the expected reversal is seen.

EURJPY (160.79) tested 160.98 yesterday. Note that 161/162 is a crucial near term resistance which can hold and produce a fall towards 158 before resuming a potential rise to 164/165.

Dollar-Yen (150.11) has risen above 150 and has scope to rise towards 151 or slightly higher before falling back towards 150-149 again.

USDCNY (7.2766) has bounced from 7.2662 which could extend to 7.28/30 before again falling back towards 7.26 or lower in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6487) fell from 0.65228. Aussie could fall to 0.6450 before resuming the upmove towards 0.6550 and higher eventually.

Pound (1.2339) fell sharply from 1.2428. While below 1.24, view is bearish towards 1.23-1.2250.

USDRUB (92.6986) could remain stable within 91.40-94.50 for a few sessions.

USDINR (83.22) opened at 83.13 yesterday but failed to trade near those levels and instead rose back to close above 83.20. Note that 83.10 is a good support on the charts while reissuance at 83.30 is also holding well. Our mentioned fall to 83 has not happened yesterday.

EURINR (89.5193) continues to move up above 89.50. The pair can soon test 90-91 in the coming days if the rising momentum continues to hold.


The US Treasury yields have bounced. If this sustains, a further rise is possible. Need to wait and watch. The German Yields have also risen back well. A strong follow-through rise will negate the chances of more fall and will take them higher. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remains lower and are looking vulnerable to fall more.

The US 10Yr (4.63%) and the 30Yr (4.80%) yields have bounced slightly. If this bounce sustains, we can get a rise to 4.8% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr). Else they can fall back to 4.5% and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr) again.

The German 10Yr (2.74%) and the 30Yr (3%) have risen well. The 10Yr is now above its 2.7% support and while that holds, it can rise to 2.9% and higher from here. The 30Yr can rise to 3.1%-3.2% if it gets a strong follow-through rise from here. That will negate the fall to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.85%-2.8% (30Yr) mentioned yesterday.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3074%) oscillates around 7.3%. A fall to 7.25%-7.2% looks likely unless a strong follow-through rise is seen from here

The 5Yr GOI (7.2806%) is at its support at 7.28%. Failure to rise back above 7.3% can drag it down to 7.25%-7.23%.


Dow Jones remained stable but needs a break above 34200 to strengthen the momentum further else a fall back cannot be negated. DAX and Nifty upside looks capped at 15400-15500 and 19500-19600 respectively. Nikkei has fallen back but is likely to get support at 32000-31500. Shanghai outlook remains bullish while above 3025.

Dow (34095.86, +0.10%) remained stable above 34000. A strong break above 34200 is needed to see an extended rise to 34600. Else it can fall below 34000 to see 33500 and lower levels. Need to wait and watch.

DAX (15135.97, -0.35%) has come down. Broader trend is down. 15400-15500 can cap the upside and drag the DAX lower towards 14800-14500 again.

Nifty (19411.75, +0.94%) has risen. The 19500-19600 region can cap the upside and trigger a reversal again. The trend is down for the Nifty to see 18700-18600 on the downside.

Nikkei (32383.50, -0.99%) has fallen back from a high of 32766.54 but while above the support at 32000-31500, there can still be scope for a rise towards the resistance at 33500. Thereafter we can expect a reversal.

Shanghai (3051.38, -0.23%) lacks a follow through rise above 3050. However, view is bullish for a rise towards 3100 while above the support at 3025.


Brent and WTI are hovering above their key support. Need to see if the crude prices manage to bounce back or breaks lower. Gold has declined towards 1980 and looks vulnerable to fall further in the near term. Silver has also fallen back but is likely to remain range bound while above the support at 22.50. Copper has come down, failing to rise above its resistance at 3.73. Natural gas has broken below the lower end of the range and looks bearish to fall further from here.

Brent ($ 84.82) is hovering above the support at $ 84. Failure to sustain above $ 84 can see a fall towards $ 83-82.

WTI ($ 80.50) remains subdued and is hovering above the support at $ 80. A break below it, if seen, can drag it down towards $ 78.

Gold (1980.80) has declined towards 1980. A break below it can trigger a fall towards 1960-1950.

Silver (23.00) has fallen back to 23 but downside could be limited to 22.50. So the 22.50-24 range may continue to hold for some time.

Copper (3.6965) has come down after testing a high of 3.7255. As mentioned, a sustained break above 3.70-3.73 is needed to see a rally towards 3.80. Else it can come down towards 3.65.

Natural Gas (3.2770) has declined, breaking below the lower end of the 3.3-3.7 range. While this break sustains, a fall towards 3.1-3.0 looks possible.


3:30 9:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.35% …Actual 4.10%

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
Expn -61.9 …Expected -60.2 …Actual -58.3

No major data release Yesterday.