The Dollar Index seems to be recovering slowly towards 106, taking the Euro down towards 1.0650. EURJPY has risen back and has scope to test 161/162. USDJPY has risen above 150 and can test 151/152 levels soon. The Aussie is bullish towards 0.65 while above 0.64 while the Pound looks bearish below 1.2450 to fall to 1.22. USDCNY looks stable above 7.25. USDRUB could range between 91-93.50 with possible extension to 90. USDINR may continue trade between 83.20-83.30. The EURINR could remain below 90 for a few sessions.

Dollar Index (105.579) is rising slowly and can test 106-106.50 before again falling towards 105 in the longer run.

EURUSD (1.0692) has declined sharply from 1.0750 and looks bearish for a fall towards 1.0650-1.06.

EURJPY (160.89) needs to break above 161 to head towards 162. The immediate downside could be limited to 160.

Dollar-Yen (150.47) has risen well above 150 and could test 151-151.60 before falling sharply back towards 150 or lower. Note that 151-152 is a crucial resistance zone on the long term charts.

USDCNY (7.2696) looks stable above 7.26

Aussie (0.6443) can aim to slowly move up towards 0.65 or higher while above 0.64.

Pound (1.2288) is holding well below 1.2450 and has scope to fall to 1.22 before bouncing back towards 1.23/24 again in the medium term.

USDRUB (92.1237) fell to almost test 91 yesterday but bounced back sharply. There is scope for a fall to 90 while below 93.Immediate range of 91-93.50 can hold.

USDINR (83.2625) continues to trade within the narrow 83.20-83.30 region.

EURINR (88.9932) is holding well below 89.60 and can test 88.50 before again rising higher towards 89.60/80 or higher.


The US Treasury and the German yields have come down failing to sustain the bounce seen on Monday. Further fall is likely to be seen in both the German and US yields in the coming days before they reverse higher again. The 10Yr GoI is coming down in line with our expectation. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand is looking mixed and is stuck inside a narrow range.

The US 10Yr (4.56%) and the 30Yr (4.72%) yields have come down again. A test of 4.5%-4.4% (10Yr) and 4.65%-4.55% (30Yr) can happen first before a fresh rise is seen.

The German 10Yr (2.66%) and the 30Yr (2.89%) have failed to sustain the bounce. While below 2.7%, the 10Yr can fall to 2.5%. The 30Yr can test 2.6%-2.5% on a break below 2.8%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2813%) has come down well below 7.3%. This keeps intact our view of seeing 7.25%-7.2% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.2456%) has come down sharply below 7.25%. A test of 7.23%-7.20% looks likley on the downside.


Dow Jones has moved up but needs a break above 34200 to strengthen the momentum further. DAX and Nifty have scope to test the resistance at 15400-15500 and 19500-19600 respectively. Nikkei remains subdued but has scope to see a rally while above the support at 32000-31500. Shanghai outlook remains bullish while above 3025.

Dow (34152.60, +0.17%) has moved up. A strong break above 34200 will be bullish to see 34600-35000 in the coming days. That will negate the chances of falling back below 34000.

DAX (15152.64, +0.11%) is holding above 15000. This keeps alive the chances of testing 15400-15500 on the upside before turning down again.

Nifty (19406.70, -0.03%) is holding higher but seems to lack momentum. We reiterate that 19500-19600 can cap the upside and trigger a reversal again towards 19000 and even 18700-18600.

Nikkei (32355, +0.26%) remains subdued but has scope for a rise towards the resistance at 33500 while above the support at 32000-31500. Thereafter we can expect a reversal.

Shanghai (3059, +0.06%) is oscillating around 3050. However, view is bullish for a rise towards 3100 while above the support at 3025.


Brent and WTI have broken sharply below their key support and looks bearish to target their next immediate support before a possible bounce back can happen. Gold, Silver and Copper looks vulnerable for the near term. Natural gas has scope to bounce back from the support at 3.1-3.0.

Brent ($ 81.74) has fallen sharply below $ 82, breaking the support at $ 84. Next support is at $ 80-79-78.50. While these hold, a bounce back towards $ 84-85 can be seen.

WTI ($ 77.33) has plunged, breaking below $ 80. It can now test $ 75-74 before a bounce back can happen.

Gold (1975.40) tested 1962.80 yesterday and has bounced back slightly from there. It may come down further to 1950 or 1925 before reversing back from there.

Silver (22.64) has declined towards the lower end of the 22.50-24 range. It looks vulnerable to a break below 22.50 and fall towards 22-21.80 before a reversal can be seen.

Copper (3.6860) fell to 3.65 as expected and has risen back a bit from there. View is bearish to see a break below 3.65 and fall towards 3.62-3.60 while it stays below 3.73.

Natural Gas (3.1780) indeed tested 3.1 as expected and has bounced back a bit from there. While it remains above 3.1-3.0, a rise back towards 3.4 can be seen.


10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.2% …Expected -0.2% …Previous -1.2%

3:30 9:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.35% …Previous 4.10% …Actual 4.35%

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
Expn -61.9 …Expected -60.2 …Previous -58.7 …Actual -61.5