The Dollar Index could hold below 106, taking the Euro up towards 1.07 before a reversal is seen. EURJPY needs to sustain a rise above 162 to head towards 163/165 while USDJPY is also headed towards crucial resistance at 152, a break above which if seen will be surprisingly bullish else can see an expected decline towards 151/150. The Aussie is strongly bearish for a fall to 0.63 but Pound may see a short bounce from 1.22 now before eventually falling towards 1.21. USDCNY can rise slowly towards 7.30/32. USDRUB could trade within 93-90 for the near term. USDINR saw a rise to 83.45 post an outage on the Refinitiv FX trading platform and could open with a gap down today in presence of the RBI to trade near 83.30/20 again. EURINR can trade between 89.50-88.50 for this week.
Dollar Index (105.84) seems to be holding below 106 just now but has scope to rise to 106.50 in the next few sessions before falling back towards 105.50 again in the medium term.
EURUSD (1.0682) is trading in the middle of the broad 1.0550-1.08 range where there is equal scope of moving on either side. While below 1.07, a dip to 1.0650/1.06 could be a possibility in the next few sessions.
EURJPY (162.01) has managed to break 162 but needs to sustain the rise in order to continue bullishness towards 163/165. Else an immediate fall from current levels can take the pair back towards 161 or lower. Overall trend looks bullish.
Dollar-Yen (151.64) has been inching up slowly day by day and could head towards 152 from where a rejection can take it down towards 151 and lower again. Failure to fall from 152 could give a multi-year break above resistance and lead to a further rally towards 153-155 which is less expected just now while below 152.
USDCNY (7.2943) is bullish towards 7.30/32.
Aussie (0.6357) looks strongly bearish for a fall towards 0.63.
Pound (1.2230) could bounce back for a brief while above 1.22 towards 1.2250 or slightly higher but chances of a fall to 1.21 cannot be negated in the coming days. Overall view is bearish below 1.23.
USDRUB (92.2647) has risen from 91 and can test 93-94 before again falling back towards 90.50-90 in the medium term.
USDINR (83.3450) saw a panic rise on Friday to 83.45 post an outage on the Refinitiv FX trading platform (later informed by news sources). A possible gap down opening could be possible today in presence of RBI, bringing it down to 83.30/20 region again.
EURINR (88.9970) is likely to trade within 88.5-89.5 for this week.
The US Treasury yields remain stable. A further rise from here looks possible this week. Broadly, the yields can consolidate in a range for some time. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields have risen further. While they sustain this momentum, more rise could be seen this week. The 10Yr GoI has an immediate resistance which has to be broken to move further up. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand has room to rise as the resistance is slightly away from current levels.
The US 10Yr (4.65%) and the 30Yr (4.77%) yields remain stable. The 10Yr can rise to 4.8%-4.85% if it sustains above 4.6%. The 30Yr can rise to 5% on a break above 4.8%.
The German 10Yr (2.71%) and the 30Yr (2.92%) continue to move up. A further rise to 2.9% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) looks possible in the coming days while this momentum sustains.
The 10Yr GoI (7.2992%) has bounced back. A sustained rise above 7.3% is needed to negate the fall to 7.2%-7.15% and move up to 7.4% again.
The 5Yr GOI (7.2688%) has risen well. The support at 7.2% is holding well. A test of 7.3% is likely now. Failure to breach 7.3% can keep it in a narrow range of 7.2%-7.3%.
Dow Jones has risen well above 34200 and needs a strong follow-through rise from here to strength the momentum. DAX outlook is bearish while below the resistance at 15400-15500. Nifty closed above 19500 in the Muhurat trading session but needs to surpass the resistance at 19600 to negate our bearish view. Nikkei has inched up keeping our bullish view intact. Shanghai remains subdued but while above the support at 3025, view will remains bullish.
Dow (34283.10, +1.15%) has risen well above 34200. A strong follow-through rise from here can take it up 34500-34600 and even 35000. It will also reduce the danger of falling below 34000.
DAX (15234.39, -0.77%) seems to be turning down. We retain our view of the index falling below 15000 again while the resistance at 15400-15500 holds well.
Nifty (19525.55, +0.52%) has closed above 19500 in the Muhurat trading session. It has to break and get a strong follow-through rise above 19600 to rise to 19800 and negate our bearish view of seeing 19000 again.
Nikkei (32623.50, +0.17%) is inching up. This keeps our bullish view intact for a rise towards 33500.
Shanghai (3030.25, -0.29%) remains subdued but sustains above the support at 3025 for now. While above 3025, there is scope for a rise towards 3100. Else can fall towards 3000.
Crude prices and Natural Gas have risen back well as the support at $ 79-78.5 (Brent), $ 75-74 (WTI) and 3.0-2.9 (Natural Gas) respectively held well as expected. Gold, Silver and Copper continues to dip and have scope to fall towards their immediate support.
Brent ($ 80.85) has bounced back as the support at $ 79-78.50 has held well. A rise towards $ 84 looks possible in the near term.
WTI ($ 76.63) has risen well as the support at $ 75-74 has held well. A rise towards $ 80 can be seen while above $ 74.
Gold (1944.70) has fallen back below 1950 failing to rise further above 1980. A test of 1925 can be seen before a bounce back is possible
Silver (22.13) has come down below 22.50. A test of 22-21.50 can be seen before a reversal can happen. Failure to hold above 21.50 can see an extended fall to 21.10-21.00.
Copper (3.5955) has declined below 3.60. A fall towards 3.55-3.50 looks likely from here.
Natural Gas (3.0980) has bounced back as the support at 3.0 has held well. While above 3.0-2.9, there is scope for a rise towards 3.2-3.3.
No major data release today.
7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected -15.3 …Previous -15.5 …Actual -14.3
12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 7.4% …Expected – …Previous 10.3% …Actual
12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 4.51 …Expected 5.50 …Previous 5.02 …Actual