Currencies are trading strong against the falling Dollar which could continue for the rest of the month as Dollar Index heads towards 102.50-102. Euro needs to break above 1.10 to head higher. EURJPY and USDJPY can fall to 160 and 146/145 respectively while Aussie and Pound look bullish for a potential rise to 0.66/67 and 1.26/28. USDRUB can bounce back while above 88. USDCNY is bearish to 7.10/7.05. EURINR has scope to slowly rise towards 92 before reversing from there while USDINR seems to be breaking above 83.30 contrary to the global currency strength seen against the US Dollar. No positive impact is seen on the Rupee so far as the RBI clearly seems to be controlling the movement. Instead, a break above 83.30/35 if sustains could take it towards fresh resistance at 83.50.
Dollar Index (103.311) is falling sharply and looks strongly bearish for now as resistance at 107.35 proves strong. There is room for a fall to 102.50-102 on the downside in the coming sessions.
EURUSD (1.0957) could be headed towards 1.10 and if the Dollar Index breaks below 103, Euro may attempt to rise above 1.10 towards 1.11. However, watch for an initial correction from 1.10.
EURJPY (161.95) is headed towards 161 which if breaks can drag the price down to 160. Overall near term view is bearish.
Dollar-Yen (147.79) has broken below 148. View continues to look bearish towards 146-145 in the near term.
USDCNY (7.1383) is headed towards 7.10 as expected. Failure to see a bounce from 7.10 could be further bearish towards 7.05.
Aussie (0.6575) has moved up breaking above our expected target of 0.6550. While it soars high, there could be chances of 0.66/67 before a sharp reversal is seen.
Pound (1.2534) could be headed towards 1.26/28 while it sustains rise above 1.25. The price could continue rising as long as the dollar trades weak. On the weekly chart, there is resistance at 1.28 leaving much room on he upside from current levels.
USDRUB (88.3866) continues to trade within 88-90. Overall view would be bullish while above 88.
USDINR (83.3450) broke above 83.30 to test 83.3525 yesterday. Could it be a possible indication that the pair might attempt to rise to fresh resistance near 83.50 by the end of the month? Could be a possibility that cannot be negated. At the same time, USDINR sees no impact of global currency strength seen against the Dollar.
EURINR (91.3183) has risen well and could be headed towards resistance at 92 from where a rejection could be possible. Watch price action near 92 for a possible reversal.
The US Treasury yields have declined and are poised near their key supports. A break below the support can drag them further lower in the coming days. The German yields have room to fall further from here before reversing higher again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced back. The 10Yr has resistance that can cap the upside and take it down again. The 5Yr on the other hand looks mixed as it is back into its earlier sideways range.
The US 10Yr (4.41%) and the 30Yr (4.55%) yields have come down towards their crucial 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.55% (30Yr) support. A break below it can drag them down to 4.3%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.45%-4.35% (30Yr) in the coming days.
The German 10Yr (2.61%) yield has bounced while the 30Yr (2.80%) remains stable. We retain our view of the yields testing 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6%-2.7% (30Yr) on the downside first before reversing higher.
The 10Yr GoI (7.2575%) has risen well. But resistance at 7.26%-7.28% can cap the upside and drag it down to 7.15%.
The 5Yr GOI (7.2516%) has risen sharply and is back into its 7.2%-7.3% range. Can go either way from here. Need to wait and watch. A breakout on either side of 7.2%-7.3% will give clarity.
Dow Jones can test 35400-35500 on the upside. DAX has dipped slightly but broader outlook remains bullish. Nifty can trade within 19500-19850 range for some time. Nikkei seems to be turning lower and can fall while below the resistance at 33500. Shanghai has risen further and remains bullish to target further highs.
Dow (35151.04, +0.58%) is moving up towards 35400-35500 in line with our expectation. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if a reversal is happening or not.
DAX (15901.33, -0.11%) has dipped slightly. Outlook is bullish. A consolidation between 15800 and 16000 looks like a possibility before rising towards 16500-16600.
Nifty (19694, -0.19%) has dipped. Immediate outlook is mixed. 19500-19850 can be the trading range for some time. While above 19500 bias is bullish to see 20000.
Nikkei (33347.50, -0.11%) seems to be turning down. A fall towards 33000-32500 can be seen while it remains below 33500.
Shanghai (3082.59, +0.47%) continues to move up. View remains bullish for a rise towards 3100-3125.
Brent has risen above its resistance and looks bullish to move up further from here whereas WTI is attempting to rise above its resistance and has scope to target next key resistance in the near term. Gold and Silver have bounced back keeping our overall bullish view intact. Copper is heading towards 3.85 which if holds can lead to a fall back towards 3.75. Natural Gas continues to fall and has scope to test 2.8-2.7 before a bounce back can happen.
Brent ($ 82.16) has risen, breaking above $ 81.50-82. A rise towards $ 84-85 looks possible now. Immediate support is at $ 81.
WTI ($ 77.66) is attempting to rise above $ 78. A sustained move above $ 78 can see a target of $ 80-82. Immediate support is at $ 76.
Gold (1991) has risen back after testing a low of 1967.20. Bias remains positive for a rise towards 2000-2020.
Silver (23.78) indeed tested 23.30 yesterday as expected and has bounced back from there. Outlook remain bullish for a rise towards 24.70 in the near term.
Copper (3.8195) has risen well breaking above the interim resistance at 3.80. Next crucial resistance is seen at 3.85. A break above it, if seen, would open doors towards 3.90-4.00. Else a fall back towards 3.75 can be seen.
Natural Gas (2.88) has broken below 2.9. It can now fall further to 2.8-2.7 before reversing back towards 3.1.
13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn 3.5% …Expected 3.6% …Actual 3.8%
15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 3838K …Expected 3900K …Actual 3960K
No major data release yesterday.