Dollar Index resumes fall targeting 102-101.50 while Euro is bullish for a rise to 1.10. EURJPY is bearish to 161/160 while below 164. USDJPY can test 148/147 before pausing but overall view is bearish below 150. USDCNY has potential to fall to 7.10/05. Aussie and Pound have scope to rise towards 0.67 and 1.27/28 respectively as initial hurdle at 0.66 and 1.26 has been broken on the upside. USDRUB could trade within 87-90 region and will pick up upside momentum on a sustained break above 90. EURINR is bullish towards 92. USDINR could continue trade within 83.25-83.40.

Dollar Index (103.12) has resumed its fall after a brief corrective rise to 104.21 last week. A break below 103 will drag the index down to 102-101.50 before a pause is seen again. Overall view is bearish below 104.

EURUSD (1.0956) is rising well from 1.0850 and is bullish towards 1.10.

EURJPY (162.25) has been falling sharply since yesterday, holding below 164. A fall to 161-160 could be possible by end of the week.

Dollar-Yen (148.08) has also resumed fall after a brief test of 149.75 last week. View is bearish while below 150. Immediate near term support seen at 147.

USDCNY (7.1505) is table near 7.15. Potential bearishness towards 7.10/05 cannot be negated.

Aussie (0.6626) has picked up momentum to rise towards 0.67 which could hold as a decent resistance just now. Failure to see a rejection at 0.67 could be further bullish towards 0.68/69 for the next few weeks.

Pound (1.2635) has immediate support at 1.26 above which view is bullish for a rise towards 1.27/1.28.

USDRUB (89.0774) broke below 88 to test 87 last week but has moved up slowly from there. There could be some sideways range below 90 for a few sessions. A sustained break above 90 is necessary for the pair to pick up upside momentum.

USDINR (83.3725) could continue trade within 83.40-83.25.

EURINR (91.3581) has managed to rise and sustain above 91 and can continue to rise to test 92 before pausing. The immediate view is bullish above 91.


The US Treasury yields have come down again and are poised near their crucial support. Failure to get a strong and sustained bounce from here can drag them lower this week. The German yields are coming down towards their key supports in line with our expectation. There is little room left on the downside and a reversal is possible going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remains mixed and can continue to oscillate within their narrow range.

The US 10Yr (4.40%) and the 30Yr (4.54%) yields have come down to their crucial support. A fall below 4.4% can take the 10Yr down to 4.3%-4.2%. The 30Yr can fall to 4.4%-4.35% on a break below 4.5%.

The German 10Yr (2.55%) and the 30Yr (2.75%) are coming down towards 2.5% and 2.7% respectively. A fresh leg of upmove is possible after testing the mentioned levels.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2704%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2629%) remains stuck within their 7.2%-7.3% range. Outlook is mixed. We will have to wait for the range breakout to get clarity.


Dow Jones needs to overcome its immediate resistance to avoid a fall back. DAX outlook is bullish as long as it holds above 15900-15800. Nifty has to breach 19850 decisively to strengthen its bullish momentum. Nikkei is stuck in a range. Shanghai looks bearish for the near term.

Dow (35333.47, -0.16%) has dipped slightly. Failure to rise past 35500 from here can drag it below 35000 towards 34500 and lower in the coming days. Price action in the next few days is going to be important.

DAX (15966.37, -0.39%) has support at 15900-15800. While they hold, the bullish outlook will remain intact to breach 16000 and rise to 16500-16600.

Nifty (19794.70, -0.04%) has to breach 19850 decisively to move up towards 20000. Supports are there in the broad 19700-19500 region while above which the bias continues to remain bullish.

Nikkei (33338, -0.33%) has come down below 33500 and looks range bound within 34000-33000. The mentioned range may continue to hold for a few sessions until a decisive break is seen on either side of the range.

Shanghai (3034.48, +0.09%) is attempting to break below the lower end of the 3025-3100 range. It may fall towards 3000 or even lower to 2950. Upside looks capped at 3050.


Crude prices look bearish to fall towards their respective supports. Gold has entered into its crucial resistance zone. Need to see if that can halt the current rally or not. Silver has broken above it key resistance and if the break sustains, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Copper remains bearish while below 3.85. Natural Gas needs to rise past 2.95-3.00 to strengthen its momentum.

Brent ($ 80.27) is inching lower. Outlook is bearish for a fall towards $ 77 .

WTI ($ 75.28) looks bearish for a fall towards $ 72-71. Thereafter we might expect a reversal towards $ 78-80.

Gold (2017) has entered into the key resistance zone of 2020-2025 as expected. A break above 2025 can take it higher towards 2050. Else it can fall back towards 1980-1975.

Silver (24.73) has risen breaking above the resistance at 24.60 (revised from 24.70). While the break sustains above 24.60/50, a further rise towards 25.40-25.50 can be seen.

Copper (3.7645) appears range bound within 3.80-3.74. But while it remains below 3.85, a dip to 3.72-3.70 cannot be negated.

Natural Gas (2.9770) tested 3.0950 well above our expected level of 3.0-3.05 before retreating to a low of 2.8670. It is now rising back from there. A break above 2.95-3.00 can open doors towards 3.10 or higher.


14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 3.2% …Expected 4.2% …Previous 2.2%

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 102.4 …Expected 101.0 …Previous 102.6

15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 742K …Expected 724K …Previous 719K ….Actual 679K