Dollar Index extended the fall after FED Governor, Christopher Waller indicated a possible rate cut in the months ahead if inflation decline continues. Euro trades above 1.10 and could be headed higher if the Dollar Index continues to fall to 102-101.50. EURJPY is bearish to 161/160 while below 164. USDJPY ha come down to test 147 as expected and if the fall continues, next target could be 145. . USDCNY has potential to fall to 7.10/05. Aussie and Pound have scope to rise towards 0.67 and 1.28 respectively. USDRUB could trade within 88-90 region. EURINR could test 92 before coming off from there. USDINR could dip towards 83.25/20 while below 83.40.

Dollar Index (102.56) has broken below 103 and is headed towards 102-101.50 from where a bounce can be expected in the near term.

EURUSD (1.1006) has moved above 1.10 and if the Dollar Index continues to fall towards 102-101.50, Euro could test 1.11 or slightly higher before reversing from there.

EURJPY (161.79) has scope to test interim support at 161 from where a bounce can be expected. Failure to hold above 161 could be bearish for the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (147.02) has come down to our expected level of 147 a break of which can be further bearish towards 145. Short corrective bounces could be on the cards for the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.1237) has dipped and could head towards 7.10/05. View is bearish.

Aussie (0.6651) is trading below immediate resistance at 0.67 which needs to hold to produce a fall to 0.66/64 in the medium term, but if the US Dollar continues weakness, the Aussie may test 0.68/69 before the expected reversal can be seen.

Pound (1.2716) has broken above 1.27 as expected and could continue to move up to 1.28 before reversing from there. Immediate trend looks upwards.

USDRUB (89.18) looks ranged below 90 and could continue trade within 90-88 in the near term.

USDINR (83.3375) tested 83.3925 before dipping to close at 83.3375 yesterday. NDF currently quotes 83.28/29. While below immediate resistance at 83.40, there could be chances of a possible dip towards 83.25/20.

EURINR (91.6391) could test 92 before falling towards 91-90.50 in the next few sessions.


The US Treasury yields have declined further. The 10Yr is below its key support and can see an extended fall from here before reversing higher again. The German yields are poised near their crucial support. Failure to get a strong bounce from here can drag then further lower. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continues to remain mixed within their sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.32%) has declined sharply below 4.4% while the 30Yr (4.51%) yield has dipped slightly. The 10Yr can test 4.2% while below 4.4%. The 30Yr can fall to 4.4%-4.35% on a break below 4.5%.

The German 10Yr (2.50%) and the 30Yr (2.72%) are poised around their crucial support at 2.5% and 2.7% respectively. Failure to bounce back from here can drag them further down to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.6%-2.5% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.2770%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2711%) have risen slightly within their 7.2%-7.3% range. Immediate outlook is mixed. Need to wait for the range breakout.


Dow Jones needs a sustained break above 35500 to see an extended rise to 36000 and to avoid a fall back. DAX can see a near term dip but the broader outlook remains bullish. Nifty has risen well above 19850 and looks bullish to target further upside. Nikkei is to remain range bound. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

Dow (35416.98, +0.24%) tested a high of 35518 and has come down from there. A sustained break above 35500 will see an extended rise to 36000 and will avoid the fall back to 35000-34500 cautioned yesterday.

DAX (15992.67, +0.16%) has bounced back. While a dip to 15800 is still a possibility, the broader view remains bullish to breach 16000 and rise to 16500-16600 eventually.

Nifty (19889.70, +0.48%) has risen and closed above 19850. While this sustains, our bullish outlook will remain intact to see 20000-20100 in the coming days.

Nikkei (33445.00, +0.09%) has rebounded from a low of 33179.07. It may continue to remain range bound within 34000-33000 for the near term.

Shanghai (3035.0402, -0.12%) remains stable above 3025. But bias remains bearish for a fall towards 3000 or even lower to 2950.


Release of Strong US consumer confidence for Oct-23 than the market expectation has led to a recovery in Crude prices and caused a sharply rally in Precious metals. Natural has fallen back failing to rise above 3.00 and looks likely to come down more from here.

Brent ($ 81.68) has rebounded towards $ 82. Outlook is mixed. A broad range of #84-$ 79 can hold for some time.

{WTI ($ 76.53) #wti-candles-Daily} has bounced back as it seems to be getting support at $ 74. But it has to rise past $ 78 to see a test of $ 80. Else a fall to $ 72-71 cannot be negated.

{Gold (2068.40) #gold-candles-Daily} has surged above 2050. A test of 2075-2085/2090 can be seen on the upside before a pause can be seen.

{Silver (25.44) #silver-candles-Weekly} has risen sharply towards 25.50 as expected and a high of 25.62 is seen so far. A sustained move above 25.50 can see a test of key resistance at 26. Thereafter the price action needs close watch i.e. if it takes reversal from there or breaks higher.

{Copper (3.8440) #comex copper-candles-3-Day} has rebounded sharply from a low of 3.7420 and is attempting to break above 3.85. A sustained break above 3.85 can lead to a rise towards 3.95-4.00.

{Natural Gas (2.7930) #natural-gas-candles-Daily} has declined failing to break above 3.00. It can dip towards 2.70 or even lower to 2.50.


10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 93.8 …Expected – …Previous 93.3

13:30 19:00 US GDP
Expn – …Expected 5.0% …Previous 4.8%

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 3.2% …Expected 4.2% …Previous 2.2%

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 102.4 …Expected 101.0 …Previous 102.6