The US GDP data (Q/Q%, second estimate for Q3) came slightly higher than market expectations at 5.06% that brought in some volatility in the markets but Dollar Index has scope to fall to 102-101.50 while below 103. Euro can rise to 1.11 while above immediate support at 1.0950. EURJPY can fall to 161 which if sustains can produce a bounce else can drag it to 160 before the expected bounce is seen. USDJPY needs to sustain above 147 to move higher, else can target 145 soon. USDCNY has been trading within a narrow region of 7.12-7.16; view is bearish to 7.10. Pound has a fair chance of seeing a rise towards 1.28 before seeing a reversal from there. Aussie, while below 0.67 can fall to 0.65/64 in the medium term. USDRUB continues to trade within 88-90 region with a possible rise to the upper end of the range. USDINR may trade within 83.25-83.40. EURINR could test 92-92.25 on the upside before coming down.

Dollar Index (102.77) tested 102.467 but bounce back slightly from there after the second estimate for Q3 US GDP came out at 5.06% (Q/Q), higher than the first estimate of 4.79% (Q/Q). While below 103, there is still some scope for a fall to 102-101.50.

EURUSD (1.0975) has dipped from 1.1017 but while above 1.0950, there is hope for a rise towards 1.11 in the near term before a sharp reversal takes place.

EURJPY (161.35) has fallen as expected and could test 161, a break below which is needed for a further fall to 160. Thereafter a bounce back towards 162/163 can be a possibility. For the pair to turn strongly bearish, it must break below 160.

Dollar-Yen (147.03) looks stable above 147 and can possibly attempt to rise back toward 148. A break below 147, if seen and sustained would make it vulnerable to test 145 on the downside. Watch price action at 147.

USDCNY (7.1209) continues to move within a narrow range of 7.12-7.16 and it may persist for a while unless a break can be seen on either side. View remains bias to see a fall towards 7.10 in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6636) dipped from 0.6676 overnight but while above 0.66, a test of 0.67 is possible. In the medium term if resistance at 0.67 holds well, a decline to 0.65/64 can be seen. Watch price action near 0.67.

Pound (1.2701) is fluctuating around 1.27 and had dipped a bit overnight. If it holds above 1.27, then it has a fair chance of seeing a rise towards 1.28.

USDRUB (88.6685) is likely to head towards 90 within the 88-90 region A break above 90 is needed for the pair to show some upside momentum.

USDINR (83.3300) tested 83.27 but could not fall lower. An immediate range of 83.25-83.40 can hold for the near term.

EURINR (91.4435) has held above its immediate support of 91 quite well and a rise to 92-92.25 could be seen before coming down towards 91.50 or lower again.


The US Treasury yields continue to fall and have room to decline further. Supports are coming up but will have to see if the yields are managing bounce back from there or not. The US PCE data release today will be important to watch. The German yields have declined below their key supports. More fall is on the cards. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continue to oscillate within their narrow range.

The US 10Yr (4.26%) and the 30Yr (4.44%) yields have declined further sharply. The 10Yr is heading down towards 4.2% as expected. The 30Yr has come down below 4.5% and can now fall to 4.4%-4.35%.

The German 10Yr (2.43%) and the 30Yr (2.68%) have declined below 2.5% and 2.7% respectively. While they sustain lower, a further fall to 2.4%-2.3% (10Yr) and 2.6%-2.5% (30Yr) is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2511%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2439%) have dipped slightly. They continue to remain mixed within the 7.2%-7.3% range.


Dow Jones needs a sustained break above 35500 to see an extended rise and to avoid the danger of seeing a fall back. DAX has risen sharply above 16000 and looks bullish to rise towards it crucial resistance in the near term. Nifty continues to rise and remains bullish to target new highs. Nikkei is coming down towards its lower end of the range. Shanghai is gradually falling and can come down towards 3000-2950.

Dow (35430.42, +0.04%) failed to sustain the break above 35500 for the second consecutive day. As mentioned yesterday, a sustained rise above 35500 is needed to see an extended rise to 36000 and avoid falling back to 35000-34500.

The break above 16000 has happened as expected. DAX (16166.45, +1.09%) keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 16500-16600 on the upside.

The rise to 20100 has happened in line with our expectation. While above 20000, Nifty (20096.60, +1.04%) is bullish to see 20300-20400 on the upside.

Nikkei (33315, -0.02%) seems to be inching lower towards its lower end of the 34000-33000 range. A break below 33000, if seen, can drag it down to 32500.

Shanghai (3025.50, +0.15%) is attempting to break below 3025. View remains bearish for a fall towards 3000 or even lower to 2950.


Crude prices have risen well and have scope to test their immediate resistance before a reversal can be seen. Gold and Silver needs a sustained break above 2075 and 25.50 to see an extended rise and to avoid a fall back. Copper outlook is bullish while it sustains above 3.80-3.78. Natural gas remains subdued and has scope to fall towards its support.

Brent ($ 82.75) has risen towards $ 83. View is bullish for a rise towards $ 84-85 before turning lower from there.

WTI ($ 77.79) has risen sharply towards $ 78. A sustained break above it can target $ 80 before a reversal can be seen from there.

Gold (2066) remains stable after testing a high of 2073 yesterday. A break above 2075 can see an extended rise to 2085/2090 or even 2100. Else a fall back to 2050-2025 cannot be negated.

Silver (25.45) has dippd after testing a high of 25.68. A sustained break above 25.50 can see a test of key resistance at 26. Thereafter we need to see if it reverses lower or breaks higher towards 26.50.

Copper (3.8455) has declined from a high of 3.8645. As long as it sustain above 3.80-3.78, there is scope for a rise towards 3.90-4.00.

Natural Gas (2.7950) remain subdued and has scope to fall towards 2.70 or even lower to 2.50.


23:30 5:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.8% …Expected 2.6% …Previous 2.6%

10:00 15:30 EU Unemp
Expn 6.4% …Expected 6.5% …Previous 6.5%

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 7.8%

13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.5% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.3%

13:30 19:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.1% …Previous 0.0%

10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 93.8 …Expected – …Previous 93.5 …Actual 93.8

13:30 19:00 US GDP
Expn – …Expected 5.0% …Previous 4.79% …Actual 5.06%