Dollar Index needs to trade below 104 to remain ranged within 102.50-104 else can turn bullish to revised upward range. Euro needs to hold above 1.0850 to move up towards 1.09/10. EURJPY has fallen below 160 and can be head towards 158. Dollar Yen has crucial support at 146 while USDCNY is holding between 7.12-7.15/16. Aussie and Pund can be ranged below 0.67 and 1.27 for a while. USDRUB has moved up well over the past few sessions and look bullish for a rise towards 92. EURINR is falling sharply but could face some support at 90. USDINR could be ranged within 83.25-83.40.

Dollar Index (103.244) rose sharply from 102.50 to 103.72 before slightly moving lower from there. Overall, there is scope for some sideways ranged movement but could be bearish below 104. A break above 104 is needed to target 105/106 on the upside.

EURUSD (1.0879) has dipped back after testing a low of 1.0881 on Friday. There is immediate support at 1.0850 which needs to hod to keep upside chances alive for a rise back towards 1.09-1.10 else a break below 1.0850 could trigger medium term bearishness.

EURJPY (159.44) has fallen breaking below 160. The fall may extend to 158.

Dollar-Yen (146.51) has immediate support at 146 which needs to hold for the pair to see some corrective short term bounce else if the downfall continues below 146, it could fall faster than expected towards 145/144. Watch price action at 146 for a potential bounce.

USDCNY (7.1334) is holding above support at 7.12 and could be ranged within 7.12-7.15/16 for some sessions before falling lower towards 7.10/05. Overall view is bearish while below 7.15.

Aussie (0.6671) has dipped from 0.67 which seems to be holding as resistance on first testing. While below 0.67, ussie could have scope to trade sideways within 0.77-0.66 for sometime before rising higher eventually towards 0.68/69.

Pound (1.2682) is ranged between 1.26 and 1.2730 which could hold for some time before moving up further towards 1.28.

USDRUB (91.2098) has moved up well over the last 2-sessions, breaking above 90/91. While above 91, a test of 92/93 is possible. Overall view is bullish above 90.

USDINR (83.2713) could continue trade within 83.40-83.25 while RBI is present in the markets to control the movement in the currency. However, on the technical charts, there is scope for an eventual rise to 83.50/60 on a break above 83.40.

EURINR (90.5780) is headed towards support at 90. It is crucial to be seen if it would bounce back from there towards 91+ or continue to fall back towards 89/88.

The US Treasury yields have declined again. A break below their crucial supports can see an extended fall this week. It is a wait and watch situation now. The German yields continue to move down in line with our expectation. They have room to fall more. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within their narrow sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and the 30Yr (4.41%) yields have declined again. 4.2% (10Y) and 4.35% (30Yr) are crucial levels which if broken can drag them down to 4.1%-4% and 4.2%-4.15% respectively.

The German 10Yr (2.36%) and the 30Yr (2.63%) yields have declined further and are coming down towards 2.3% and 2.6%-2.5% respectively in line with our expectation.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2899%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2742%) continues to rise within their 7.2%-7.3% range. We repeat that the 10Yr looks relatively more positive to breach 7.3% and rise to 7.4%. The 5Yr continues to remain mixed and unclear.

Dow Jones has risen sharply above 36000 after Fed dovish remark on Friday. DAX is coming closer to its crucial resistance. Nifty can test its immediate resistance before a corrective dip can be seen. Nikkei remains stuck within 33000-34000 range. Shanghai has bounced back but the broader outlook remains bearish while below 3060.

Dow (36245.50, +0.82%) is heading up towards 36500 much faster than expected. Need to see if it turns down from 36500 towards 35500 or extending the upmove.

DAX (16397.52, +1.12%) is coming closer to our target of 16500-16600 – the crucial resistance, which if broken can take the index up to 17000 before a reversal is seen.

Nifty (20267.90, +0.67%) can test 20400-20500 and then see a corrective dip towards 20200-20000.

Nikkei (33130.50, -0.90%) has fallen back towards the lower end of the 34000-33000 range. Outlook is mixed. However, a break below 33000, if seen, can drag it down to 32500.

Shanghai (3028.95, -0.09%) has bounced back from a low of 3010.23. But upside looks capped at 3060. While that holds, our bearish view will remain intact to see a fall towards 3000 or even lower to 2950.

Crude prices look bearish to fall towards their key support before a pause can be seen. Gold jumped to its all time high above 2100 and Silver rose to 26.34 on market speculation that Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cycle of rate hikes has peaked after Fed Chair Jerome Powell dovish comment i.e. “our policy rate is well into restrictive territory” on Friday and might do a rate cut in the first quarter of 2024. However the market has ignored his warning that it would be premature to conclude that they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance or might ease rates. Natural gas outlook remains bearish for the near term.

Brent ($ 78.50) has declined below $ 80. It may come down further to $ 77 before a pause can be seen. Overall a range of $ 85-77 can hold for some time. Only a break lower can drag it further down to $ 75-74-73 levels.

WTI ($ 73.78) has broken below $ 75 as expected. A test of $ 72-71.50 looks likely before a reversal can be seen from there.

Gold (2106.40) jumped to 2152.30 in the early market session before coming off from there. The level of 2150 is a crucial resistance level. While that holds, it can come down towards 2090 or even lower towards 2050-2040.

Silver (25.87) rose sharply to 26.34 breaking above the resistance at 26 before coming off from there to trade below 26. If it sustains below 26, a dip towards 25.30-25.00 can be seen.

Copper (3.9030) has declined after testing a high of 3.9330 on friday. It may see a near tem dip towards 3.84-3.80 before rising back from there again.

Natural Gas (2.7150) has fall towards 2.70 as expected. View remains bearish to see a further dip towards 2.60-2.50.

7:30 13:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.8 …Expected 1.6 …Previous 1.7

DATA FRIDAY:
————–
23:30 5:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.8% …Expected 2.6% …Previous 2.6% …Actual 2.5%

0:30 6:00 JP PMI
Expn 47.8 …Expected 48.1 …Previous 48.7 …Actual 48.3

1:45 7:15 CN PMI
Expn 50.2 …Expected 49.3 …Previous 49.5 …Actual 50.7

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 56.3 …Expected – …Previous 55.5 …Actual 56.0

8:00 13:30 CH GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.1% …Previous -0.1% …Actual 0.3%

8:30 14:00 CH PMI
Expn 41.7 …Expected 42.0 …Previous 40.6 …Actual 42.1

9:00 14:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 43.8 …Previous 43.1 …Actual 44.2

9:30 15:00 UK PMI
Expn 45.2 …Expected 46.7 …Previous 44.8 …Actual 47.2

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 18.5K …Previous 17.5K …Actual 24.9

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
Expn 49.1 …Expected – …Previous 48.6 …Actual 47.7

15:00 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 46.5 …Expected 47.7 …Previous 46.7 …Actual 46.7