Dollar Index if sustains above 104, can rally towards 106 pulling down Euro to 1.07/1.06 and taking USDJPY back towards 148 from support at 146. EURJPY has fallen to immediate support at 158 and needs to bounce back from here to prevent further fall to 157/156; else can head towards 156 soon. USDCNY is rising slowly towards 7.16/17 from where rejection is possible. While the US Dollar strengthens, the downside for USDCNY could be limited. Aussie is declining as expected and can soon test 0.6450 while below 0.66. Pound has broken below 1.26 and could be headed towards 1.25/24 soon. USDRUB is rising as expected and is likely to test 94. EURINR is headed towards 89. USDINR may trade within 83.25-83.40.

Dollar Index (104.112) has risen above 104 and if it manages to sustain trade above 104, it could be headed towards 106 in the next couple of weeks. A sharp fall from current levels would be needed to prevent a rally to 106.

EURUSD (1.0767) sustains below 1.08 and as the Dollar Index heads towards 106, Euro could be bearish back towards 1.07-1.06.

EURJPY (158.01) has declined to 158 as expected. It would be crucial to see if the pair breaks below 158 to head towards 157/156 or bounces back from here towards 160 again. Watch price action at support of 158.

Dollar-Yen (146.75) has broken below 147 as expected and could be headed towards 146 which is a near term support from where a bounce could be possible towards 148. A break below 146, if seen would be strongly bearish for the rest of the month. Watch price action at 146.

USDCNY (7.1596) is inching up slowly as expected and can test 7.16/17 before reversing again from there. Rise in Dollar Index could keep downside for USDCNY limited and could aid in a potential rise to 7.20 in the next couple of weeks.

Aussie (0.6541) has broken below 0.6550 and could be headed towards 0.6450 as mentioned yesterday. View is bearish below 0.66.

Pound (1.2560) may head towards 1.25/24 while below 1.26. View is bearish.

USDRUB (92.9322) has been highly volatile and moving up towards 94.

USDINR (83.33) is holding well below 83.40 and could continue trade within 83.25-83.40 region for the near term. Volatility is likely to remain low.

EURINR (89.7302) looks bearish for a fall to 89.

US yields, German yields and the India GOI have all continued to fall. While US and German yields can fall some more in the near term, Indian GOI yields may find immediate support below current levels.

The US 10Yr (4.127%) and the 30Yr (4.227%) yields continue to fall. They could pause briefly near 4.10% and 4.20% respectively before resuming the fall further by end of the month.

The German 10Yr (2.199%) and the 30Yr (2.376%) yields have also continued to decline and could pause near 2.10% and 2.25% respectively in the coming sessions.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2528%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2321%) dipped slightly yesterday and could find some support near 7.24/22% (10YR) and 7.22/20% (5Yr) respectively.

Dow Jones looks range bound but can fall if it fails to rise past 36200 and sustain above 36000. DAX has broken above its resistance at 16600 to target its next crucial resistance. Nifty continues its rally and a break above 21000 mark can open doors to further upside. Nikkei has fallen back after facing rejections from 33500 as expected. Shanghai is coming down to test it key support before a reversal can be seen.

Dow (36054.44, -0.19%) lacks strength to rise above 36200 and is consolidating above 36000. Failure to rise past 36200 and sustain above 36000 can drag it down to 35500.

DAX (16656.44, +0.75%) continues to rise breaking above the resistance at 16600. While this break sustains, an extended rise to 17000 looks possible before reversing lower from there.

Nifty (20937.70, +0.4%) has risen towards 21000. A further break above it, if seen, can open doors toward 21500. Downside seems limited to 20650-20600.

Nikkei (32825, -1.86%) has fallen back as the resistance at 33500 has held well as expected. While below 33500, bias remains bearish for a fall towards 32500 or even lower to 32000.

Shanghai (2960.67, -0.25%) has fallen back a expected. A test of key support at 2930-2925 looks likely before a reversal can happen.

Crude prices have broken below their interim supports but have next crucial supports coming up which may hold and produce a bounce back from there. Gold is getting support at 2025 and may see a short term rise from here. Silver and Natural gas are near their immediate supports. Need to see if the support holds or not. Copper has risen back but upside could be capped at 3.76-3.80.

Brent ($ 74.63) has declined sharply towards $ 74 breaking below $ 77. The level of $ 74-73 are crucial supports which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back towards $ 77 or higher.

WTI ($ 69.75) has broken sharply below $ 72-71.50. However, the crucial supports at $ 67.50-$ 66-65 levels are likely to hold and produce a reversal towards $ 72-74.

Gold (2046.20) has managed to sustain above 2025. It may rise towards 2060-2075. However, a fall towards 2000 cannot be negated while it remains below 2090.

Silver (24.11) continues to fall and is heading towards 24 as expected. Failure to bounce back from 24 can see a further fall towards 23.50-23.

Copper (3.7555) indeed fell to 3.7290 as the resistance at 3.82-3.84 region held well and has since risen back towards 3.76. Upside could be capped at 3.76-3.80. While that holds, broader outlook remains bearish to see a fall towards 3.66.

Natural Gas (2.5590) has fallen sharply towards 2.55 and has scope to test 2.50. If 2.50 holds, a bounce back towards 2.70-2.75 can be seen. Else it may continue its downtrend towards 2.35.

0:30 6:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn 8.04A$ …Expected 7.75A$ …Previous 6.79A$

10:00 15:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected -0.1% …Previous -0.1%

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
22:30 4:00 AU PMI
Expn -24.2 …Expected – …Previous -20.9 …Actual -25.3

0:30 6:00 AU GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.40% …Previous 0.44% …Actual 0.21%

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 0.2% …Previous -0.1% …Actual 0.1%

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 131K …Previous 106K …Actual 103K

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
Expn $ -64.1 …Expected $ -64.1 …Previous $ -61.2 …Actual $ -64.3

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
Expn – …Expected 5.00% …Previous 5.00% …Actual 5.00%