The ECB kept rates unchanged but did not mention anything on rate cuts in 2024, in contrary to the dovish tone from the FED a day before. ECB expects inflation to rebound again and keep price pressure intact. The rally in Euro and fall in Dollar Index seen after the FOMC has remained intact after the ECB meeting. But both Euro and Dollar Index have crucial resistance and support coming up which could hold and produce reversals over the next 2-weeks. EURJPY has risen taking support at 154 and could trade within 154-158 while USDJPY looks bearish towards 140/138. Strength in Aussie and Pound remains intact but both could face rejection from 0.68 and 1.28 respectively. USDCNY could rise towards 7.15/16 while above 7.10. USDRUB and USDINR could continue within the range of 89-91 and 83.25-83.40. EURINR has risen well but could face rejection at 92.

Dollar Index (101.94) has fallen below 102 and could be headed towards support at 101.50 before a bounce is seen from there in the next 1-2 weeks. It would be crucial to watch price action near 101.50.

EURUSD (1.0996) has moved up to 1.10. We may expect a fall from 1.10-1.1030 in the near term. Else failure to fall over the next few sessions could trigger fresh upmove.

EURJPY (156.20) has taken support at 154 and managed to rise from there negating our lower target of 152. While above 154, some consolidation is possible within 158-154.

Dollar-Yen (142.02) continues to look bearish towards 140/138 in the near term which could gather steam on further weakness in the Dollar.

USDCNY (7.1173) tested 7.1038 yesterday before moving higher from there today. While above 7.10, there is scope for a rose to 7.15/16 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6716) continues to rise above 0.67 and could rise further towards 0.68 before pausing.

Pound (1.2760) has dipped from 1.28 and could extend to 1.27/26 if the fall sustains. Falling US Dollar could take Pound higher On the upside, a break above 1.28, if seen in the near term cold trigger further bullishness to 1.29.

USDRUB (89.5072) is trading above 89. Immediate trade range could be 89-91.

USDINR (83.3350) dipped within the 83.40-83.25 range as expected. The range may continue to hold as long as the RBI wishes to keep the range intact.

EURINR (91.6123) has been rising strongly but could face rejection near 92.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall. View is bearish. More fall is on the cards. The German yields are coming down inline with our expectation and can fall further from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have broken their sideways range on the downside. Outlook is bearish to see more fall going forward.

The US 10Yr (3.96%) and the 30Yr (4.08%) yields have declined further. While below 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) the outlook is bearish to see a fall to 3.6% and 3.8% respectively.

The German 10Yr (2.1%) and the 30Yr (2.32%) yields are coming down towards 2% and 2.2% respectively. Resistances are at 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.1969%) has dipped below 7.2%. While this break sustains, a further fall to 7.1% and lower can be seen.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1169%) has declined sharply below 7.2%. It is bearish to see 7%-6.95% on the downside.

Dow Jones continues to rise and remain bullish for the near term. DAX touched 17000 and has come down but outlook remains bullish while above the support at 16600-16500. Nifty has risen sharply above 21000 and looks bullish to target news highs. Shanghai is inching lower but downside seems limited to 2930-2925. Nikkei is stuck in a narrow range.

Dow (37248.35, +0.43%) has risen further. It can touch 37350-37500 in the near-term. A corrective dip is possible thereafter. Long-term picture is bullish to see 39000-39200 while above 36000.

DAX (16752.23, -0.08%) touched 17000 and has come down. View remains bullish to see 17400 while above 16600-16500.

Nifty (21182.70, +1.23%) has closed well above 21000. Bullish view is intact to see 21500-21700.

Nikkei (33030, +1.05%) is stuck within 32500-31000. A strong above 33100-33500 is needed to move up towards 33900-34000 and to negate the danger of falling towards 31500.

Shanghai (2971.36 +0.42%) is inching lower. But downside seems limited to 2930-2925. While above 2925, a range of 3000-2925 can hold for some time with a scope to break above 3000 and rise towards 3040-3050.

Crude prices have risen well inline with expectations and look bullish for the near term. Gold has dipped slightly but downside could be limited to 2040-2020. Silver and Copper need a sustained break above their interim resistance to strengthen the bullish momentum. Natural Gas has scope to test its resistance before a pause can be seen.

Brent ($ 76.96) has risen well as expected and is attempting to break above $ 77. View is bullish for a rise towards $ 80-81.

WTI ($ 72.24) has broken above $ 72. While above $ 72, view is bullish for a rise towards $ 75-76-77.

Gold (2050.80) has dipped after testing 2062.90. Immediate support is at 2040-2020, while above which, there can be chances of seeing a further rise towards 2075-2080.

Silver (24.40) rose to 24.53 as expected and has fall back from there. A sustained break above 24.50 is needed to see a rally towards 25-25.30. Immediate support is seen at 24.30.

Copper (3.8895) rose sharply to 3.9095 yesterday as expected and has come down from there. It may break above 3.90-3.92 and rise towards 4.00 in the near term.

Natural Gas (2.4310) is moving up. A rise towards 2.50-2.60 looks possible before a pause can be seen.

23:05 4:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -44 …Expected -23 …Previous -24

9:00 14:30 IN Trade bal
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -31.46

10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected 10.3 …Previous 9.2

14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production
Expn -0.1% …Expected 0.3% …Previous -0.7%

14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 78.8% …Expected 79.1% …Previous7 8.9%

21:00 2:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term $ Bln)
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -1.7

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 10.0K …Previous 42.7K …Actual 61.5K

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn -0.47% …Expected – …Previous -0.52% …Actual 0.26%

8:30 14:00 SNB Mtg
Expn – …Expected 1.75% …Previous 1.75% …Actual 1.75%

12:00 17:30 BOE Mtg
Expn – …Expected 5.25% …Previous 5.25% …Actual 5.25%

12:00 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
Expn – …Expected 2-0-7 …Previous 3-0-6 …Actual 3-0-6

13:15 18:45 ECB Mtg
Expn – …Expected 4.50% …Previous 4.50% …Actual 4.50%

13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn -0.4% …Expected -0.1% …Previous -0.2% …Actual 0.1%