Dollar Index has held itself quite well above 101.40, but overall view remains bearish to 101 in the near term. Euro has sustained well above 1.10 but needs to break past 1.1050 to further test 1.11 on the upside. Fall from anywhere between 1.1050-1.11 can be seen towards 1.09 or lower. While EURJPY is near its upper end of its range of 156-157.30, USDJPY has remained flat since last 2-3 sessions but is expected to fall towards 141 soon. Aussie is bullish towards 0.69. Pound continues to slowly inch higher within its immediate range of 1.26-1.28. USDCNY is rising as expected but needs to break past 7.15 to be further bullish. USDRUB has been declining as expected and it could trade within the broad 94-88 region for the next few weeks. USDINR continues to trade within 83.00-83.30 region. EURINR is coming off from 92 and could head towards 91.50-91.00 by the end of the week.

Dollar Index (101.526) continues to trade above 101.40 but overall view remains bearish towards 101 or slightly lower in the near term. Immediate upside could be limited to 102-102.5 in the next few weeks.

EURUSD (1.1032) looks stable above 1.10 but a further break past 1.1050 is needed to test our mentioned target of 1.11. Failure to rise above 1.1050 could bring it down towards 1.0950-1.09 soon.

EURJPY (157.16) is near its upper end of the 156-157.30 range mentioned yesterday. A break past 157.30 if seen, can take it higher towards 158-159. Else the range may persist and push the pair down towards 156 which looks more likely for now.

Dollar-Yen (142.45) has remained flat for the last 2-3 sessions, delaying the expected movements. Overall, view remains biased for a fall towards 141.40-141 before attempting to rise back towards 144 or higher.

USDCNY (7.1481) is slowly rising towards 7.15. Thereafter, a rise past 7.15 could lead to a short rally to 7.18/20.

Aussie (0.6831) has sustained well above 0.68 and if the rise continues, a test of 0.69 looks possible in the next few sessions.

Pound (1.2726) continues to trade within its immediate range of 1.26-1.28, trying to move up towards the upper end of 1.28.

USDRUB (91.6050) has been coming off as expected and while below its immediate resistance of 94, a possible fall to 90 and lower to 89/88 can be seen in the near term. As mentioned yesterday, broad sideways range of 94-88 may hold for the next few weeks.

USDINR (83.1975) traded between 83.10-83.21 yesterday. The overall narrow range of 83.10-83.30 and broad range of 83.00-83.40 could hold till about mid-Jan’24.

EURINR (91.7505) tested 91.9656 contrary to our expectation of seeing a dip from 91.75/80. Now, 92 seems to be holding as a decent resistance below which view is bearish towards 91.50-91.00.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly but keep intact our bearish view. The German yields are stable and could see low volatility in the rest of the week. View is bearish and can resume the fall by end of next week. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable within their narrow range. Bias is negative to break the range on the downside and see a fresh fall going forward.

The US 10Yr (3.878%) and the 30Yr (4.023%) yields have dipped. Bearish view is intact to see a fall to 3.8-3.6% (10Yr) and 3.9-3.8% (30Yr). Resistances remain intact at 4% and 4.2% (10Yr), 4.2% and 4.4% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (1.98%) and the 30Yr (2.209%) yields remain stable as markets are in the year yen festive mood. Volatility is likely to be low for the rest of the week and early next week. We retain our bearish view of seeing a fall to 1.8%-1.7% (10Yr) and 1.9% (30Yr) while below 2% and 2.2% respectively after an initial near term sideways range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1819%) remained stable yesterday. We may expect trade within 7.15%-7.20%/7.22% range. Bias is bearish to see a fall to 7.1% eventually.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0998%) retains its 7.06%-7.12% range for now. We expect it to break 7.06% and fall to 7%-6.95% eventually in the medium term.

Dow Jones remains bullish to see a break on the upper end of its range and rise further on the upside. Nifty continues to rise and remains bullish to rise towards its resistance. Shanghai is bearish for a break below the lower end of the range and fall towards its support. Nikkei has scope to test its key resistance at 33800-34000.

Dow (37545.34, +0.43%) has risen towards the upper end of the 37000-37600 range. View remains bullish to rise above 37600 and move up towards 38000 and higher.

DAX (16706.18) was closed yesterday. But bias is positive for a rise towards 17000-17400 while above the support at 16600-16500.

Nifty (21441.35, +0.43%) continues to rise. View remains bullish for a test of 21500-21700.

Nikkei (33687.58, +1.15%) has broken above the upper end of the 33000-33500 range. A test of 33800-34000 looks possible now. A further break above 34000 is needed to open doors towards 34500. Support is at 33000.

Shanghai (2894.75, -0.14%) is coming down towards the lower end of the 2950-2875 range. View remains bearish for a break below 2875 and fall towards 2850.

Brent has broken above its key resistance while WTI is moving up towards the resistance at $ 76. Outlook is bullish for both the crude prices. Gold is gradually moving up towards its immediate resistance as expected. Silver and Copper can be range bound for some time before a break on the upside can be seen. Natural Gas has bounced back from yesterday’s fall but needs to overcome the resistance ahead to ease the downside pressure.

Brent ($ 80.66) has broken above the resistance at $ 80. While above $ 80, there is scope for a rise towards $ 84-85.

WTI ($ 75.26) is moving up towards $ 76. A sustained break above $ 76 can take it further higher towards $ 78-80.

Gold (2079) is gradually moving up towards 2090-2100. While 2090-2100 holds, a fall back towards 2040-2030 can be seen.

Silver (24.54) has managed to hold above 24.30. A range of 25.00-24.30/24.00 can hold for some time before rising towards 25.30-25.50.

Copper (3.9125) is consolidating below 3.95. A range of 3.95-3.85 can persist for some time before moving up towards 4.00.

Natural Gas (2.45) has bounced back from a low of 2.3560. However, it has to rise past 2.50/2.60 to ease the downside pressure. Else a fall towards 2.20 looks possible.

No major data release today.

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.8% …Expected 2.5% …Previous 2.5% …Actual 2.5%

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 4.3% …Expected – …Previous 3.9% …Actual 4.9%