Markets seem to be placing bets on 6-rate cuts by FED in 2024 as the sentiment for the first rate cut in March intensifies, dragging down the Dollar Index to levels below 101. Euro has risen to 1.11+ which if sustains can rise to 1.12 before falling from there. EURJPY fell from 158.56 and could be headed towards 157/156 now while USDJPY is falling towards 141 as expected. Aussie is bullish towards 0.69 from where a rejection is possible. Pound continues to slowly inch higher breaking above 1.28 and could test weekly resistance near 1.29 before coming off. USDCNY fell towards 7.10/09. An immediate range of 7.09-7.15 may hold. USDRUB is fluctuating within the 94-89 region as expected. USDINR may appreciate within the 83.00-83.40 region. EURINR trades above 92 on higher Euro. It may rise higher for some more time before falling back to 92 or lower.

Dollar Index (100.804) has broken below the weekly support region of 102-101.50 and plunged to levels below 101 now which if sustains can drag the index down to 99.50 or lower soon. Bearishness would intensify if the falling momentum holds strong in the next few sessions. The index will have to bounce back to 102+ to avoid further fall from here.

EURUSD (1.1117) has risen sharply above 1.11, contrary to our expectation of seeing a decline from 1.1050-1.11. Now while above 1.11, Euro could test upper resistance at 1.12 before falling from there in early Jan-24. Euro has broken above the weekly resistance at 1.11 which if holds can take it higher in the next few sessions.

EURJPY (157.22) attempted to rise and sustain above 158 yesterday but fell back from 158.56 itself. Overall near term range of 159-156 may hold.

Dollar-Yen (141.44) is falling towards 141.40-141 in line with our expectation, triggered by Dollar weakness. A short rise to 143-144 could be witnessed in the coming sessions if the pair manages to bounce back from 141. Else, a break below 141 if seen, could make it vulnerable to test 138 on the downside.

USDCNY (7.1191) has not been able to move above 7.15 and instead fell sharply from 7.1493 yesterday on Dollar weakness. A test of 7.10-7.09 is now possible before a pause is seen. Immediate range of 7.09-7.15 looks possible.

Aussie (0.6854) is slowly moving higher towards 0.69 from where a rejection looks likely. In the longer run, a break above 0.69 is needed for targeting 0.70 eventually. But for now, 0.69 may act as a decent resistance.

Pound (1.2810) has broken above 1.28 on Dollar weakness. If the rise sustains above 1.28, we may expect a test of weekly resistance near 1.29 before coming off from there.

USDRUB (91.6235) continues to fluctuate within the broad range of 94-89.

USDINR (83.35) moved above 83.30 to test 83.3550. With strength in Euro and Chinese Yuan, Rupee could also appreciate towards 83.20 today.

EURINR (92.5728) moved above 92 on sharp rise in Euro above 1.11. Unless the pair comes off immediately, it could trade higher to test 93/94 slowly.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall. Bearish view is intact and more fall is on the cards. German yields have declined sharply and are coming down in line with our expectation. View remains bearish. The 10Yr GoI is on a corrective rise. Resistance can cap the upside and keep the downtrend intact. The 5Yr GoI is stuck inside its narrow range. Bias is negative for the yield to break the range on the downside and fall more.

The US 10Yr (3.81%) and the 30Yr (3.96%) yields continue to fall and are keeping intact our bearish view. The 10Yr can fall to 3.6% and the 30Yr to 3.8% in the coming weeks.

The German 10Yr (1.89%) and the 30Yr (2.11%) yields have declined sharply and remain bearish. They are heading down towards 1.8%-1.7% (10Yr) and 1.9% (30Yr) in line with our expectation. Resistances are at 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.2074%) is moving up. But resistance at 7.22%-7.24% can cap the upside. View is bearish to see a fall to 7.1% eventually.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1030%) is still stuck inside the 7.06%-7.12% range. Bias is negative to break the range below 7.06% and fall to 7%-6.95%.

Dow Jones continues to rise and remain bullish to target new highs. DAX is bullish as long as it holds above 16600-16500. Nifty has some resistance ahead which, if breaks, can extend the uptrend further. Shanghai has bounced back sharply towards the upper end of range and a break on the upside, if seen, can be bullish further in the coming sessions. Nikkei can be range bound for a while.

Dow (37656.52, +0.30%) has risen above 37600 as expected. The bullish view is intact to see 38000 and higher levels on the upside.

DAX (16742.07, +0.21%) is holding well above its 16600-16500 support. A fresh rise to 17000-17400 is possible in the coming days.

Nifty (21654.75, +1%) has some resistance around 21700. If that is broken, the uptrend can extend up to 22000-22200.

Nikkei (33510, -0.44%) has come down from a high of 33755.75. Support is at 33000. While above it, we can expect a range of 33800/34000-33000 to hold for some time.

Shanghai (2943.80, +1.00%) has bounced back sharply towards 2950, the upper end of the 2950-2875 range, contrary to our view for a fall towards 2850. A break above 2950, if seen, could pave the way towards 3000.

Crude prices have fallen back but could get support at $ 78 and $ 72 respectively. Gold has entered into the key resistance zone. Silver has risen within its sideways range and needs a decisive break on the upside to strengthen the bullish momentum. Copper has broken above its upper end of the range to target its key resistance as expected. Natural Gas could be range bound while below 2.60.

Brent ($ 79.68) has fallen back below $ 80. But while above the support at $ 78, there is potential for a rise towards $ 84-85.

WTI ($ 74.21) has come down failing to break above $ 76. Support is at $ 72. While that holds, there is scope for a break above $ 76 and rise towards $ 78-80.

Gold (2096.70) has risen towards 2100 as expected. While 2100 holds, a fall back towards 2040-2030 can be seen. In case, it breaks higher, a rise towards 2125-2150 can be seen.

Silver (24.69) has risen within the 25.00-24.00 range. A decisive break above 25 could pave the way towards 25.30-25.50.

Copper (3.9595) has risen sharply, breaking above the upper end of the 3.95-3.85 range in line with expectations. A test of 4.00 looks possible now. Thereafter we need to see if it falls back towards 3.90-3.88 or moves up higher towards 4.1.

Natural Gas (2.4670) is holding well below the resistance at 2.60. While below 2.60, a range of 2.60-2.30 can hold for some time with a bearish bias to see a fall towards 2.20.

10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 93.8

DATA YESTERDAY
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No major data released yesterday.