Dollar Index can trade within 102-103 while Euro could rise towards 1.10 while above 1.0870-1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY have declined sharply and could be bearish towards 157 and 143 respectively. USDCNY could rise slowly towards 7.18/20 while above 7.10/12. Aussie could be trading within 0.6650-0.6750 for the next few sessions while Pound could rise towards 1.28 or higher in the near term. USDRUB could trade within 90-92 for the next few sessions while EURINR may hold within 90.50-91.50. USDINR needs to rise from 83 else could break lower to test 82.90 before the expected rise is seen.

Dollar Index (102.14) seems to be holding above 102 and could continue trading within 102-103 for the next few sessions. There could be equal chances of a break thereafter either above 103 or below 102.

EURUSD (1.0961) could rise towards 1.10 while above 1.0870-1.09 before pausing.

EURJPY (157.45) has declined from 159 as expected. It could fall further towards 157 or lower in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (143.62) has also declined sharply from 146 and could fall towards 143 if the decline continues below 144. Immediate view looks bearish.

USDCNY (7.1569) could see a slow rise towards 7.18 while above 7.12/10.

Aussie (0.6729) has been fluctuating within 0.6750-0.6650 over the last 2-sessions. The range may continue to hold for the next few sessions.

Pound (1.2756) has been consistently rising for the last 4-sessions and could continue to move up towards 1.28-1.2830 before pausing.

USDRUB (90.80) could move higher from 90 and trade within 90-92 for sometime before possibly breaking lower towards 89 in the medium term.

USDINR (83.1425) fell within 83.1550-83.04 yesterday. It would be important to see if the pair can break below 83 to test lower levels of 82.90 before again rising back towards 83.00-83.30. Else, we may expect a rise from 83.00 itself towards 83.20/30.

EURINR (91.05) could trade within 90.50-91.50 region for a while and looks ranged.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The yields can rise further from here to test their resistances. Thereafter the overall downtrend can resume. The US CPI data release on Thursday will be important to watch.The German yields remain stable. Near-term view is positive to see a rise from here before reversing lower again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are coming down as expected. Bias is negative to see more fall going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.02%) and the 30Yr (4.18%) yields have dipped slightly. We retain our view of the yields rising to 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.3%-4.4% (30Yr) before resuming their downtrend.

The German 10Yr (2.13%%) and the 30Yr (2.36%) yields remain stable. We expect the yields to rise to 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) and then see a fresh fall.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2016%) has come down sharply. The resistance at 7.24%-7.25% has held well as expected. This keeps intact our bearish view of seeing a fall to 7.1%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0834%) is coming down within its 7.04%-7.13% range. The broader bias is bearish to break the range below 7.04% see a fall to 7%-6.95%.

Dow Jones has risen back sharply but needs to rise above 37800 to negate the danger of falling. DAX has risen further and may look to rise more from here. Nifty has come down sharply but the levels of 21500-21400 can lend some support and keep intact our bullish view. Nikkei has risen towards its upper end of the range as expected. Need to see if a break happens on the upside or not. Shanghai has bounced back and if sustains, can rise further towards its immediate resistance.

Dow (37683.01, +0.58%) has risen back very well. A rise above 37800 is needed to negate the danger of the fall to 37000 and rise to 38000 and higher.

DAX (16716.47, +0.74%) has risen back above 16700. If this sustains a further rise to 17000 is possible. That will reduce the danger of the fall to 16000.

Nifty (21513, -0.91%) has come down sharply, failing to sustain above 21700. Key support at 21500-21400 should hold to keep intact our view of seeing a rise to 22000-22200. Else, a fall to 21000 can happen first before the rise to 22000-22200.

Nikkei (33825, +1.32%) has risen towards the upper end of the 32500-34000 range as expected. A sustained break above 34000, if seen, can open doors toward 34500. Else it can be range bound for some more time.

Shanghai (2895.11, +0.27%) has risen back after testing a low of 2879.91. If the bounce sustains, it can move up towards 2950. Support is at 2865.

Crude prices look mixed and can continue to trade sideways for a while. Gold and Silver can fall while below 2060 and 23.50 respectively. Copper has bounced back but could face rejections from 3.85-3.88. Natural Gas might break above 3.00 and target further upside.

Brent ($ 76.41) has fallen back below $ 77. Outlook is mixed. A range of $ 75-80/81 can hold for some time.

WTI ($ 70.95) has declined below $ 72. Outlook is mixed. The broad $ 68-76 range can continue to hold for some time.

Gold (2038.20) is inching lower towards 2020. It might break below 2020 and fall towards 2000-1980. Upside looks capped at 2060.

Silver (23.32) looks ranged within 22.80-23.80. Within this, interim resistance is seen at 23.50. While that holds, a fall towards the lower end of the range can be seen.

Copper (3.8355) has rebounded from yesterday’s low of 3.7895. But resistance is seen at 3.85-3.88. While that holds, a fall to 3.75 is still possible before a bounce back can happen.

Natural Gas (2.92) indeed tested 2.7 yesterday as expected before bouncing back sharply above 2.9. It may break above 3.0 and rise towards 3.1-3.2.

10:00 15:30 EU Unemp
Expn 6.5% …Expected 6.5% …Previous 6.5%

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
Expn -59.6$ Bln …Expected -64.9$ Bln …Previous -64.3$ Bln

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
7:30 13:00 CH CPI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 1.5 …Actual 1.7

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.5% …Expected – …Previous 0.4% …Actual -0.3%