Dollar Index has fallen despite a release of higher US CPI data which came in at 3.30% for Dec-23 than the previous release of 3.12% for Nov-23. Dollar Index can continue to trade within 102-103 while Euro could rise towards 1.10 or higher while above 1.0870-1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY have declined from levels just above immediate resistances of 160 and 146 respectively. USDCNY has slipped and could now be headed towards 7.10/12 while below 7.18. Aussie may trade within 0.6750-0.6650 while Pound could rise towards 1.28 or higher in the near term as it holds steady above support at 1.27. USDRUB has broken below 89 as expected and could test 88 before moving up again. EURINR could be headed towards 91.50 soon while above 90.80. USDINR may rise from immediate support at 82.90 towards 83.20. Else downside break below 82.90 could trigger near term bearishness. We suggest caution at 82.90.

Dollar Index (102.211) moved up to 102.76 but has fallen back from there again. It may continue to trade within 102-103 in the near term.

EURUSD (1.0980) tested 1.0930 but has moved up from there. Immediate trade range of 1.09-1.10 can be seen in the next few sessions before we may expect a preferable rise above 1.10. Failure to rise above 1.10 could open downside chances which currently seem to have a 50-50 possibility.

EURJPY (159.15) rose to 160.18 before falling from there. While the corrective dip holds, a fall to 159/158.50 can be possible before resuming the up move again.

Dollar-Yen (144.91) fell sharply from 146.42 and could head towards 145/144 before pausing.

USDCNY (7.1609) may hold below 7.18 and slowly fall towards 7.12/10 in the next few sessions. The pair may enter into a ranged trade for a few sessions early next week.

Aussie (0.6710) has been highly fluctuating in the 0.6750-0.6650 region and could continue so for some more time.

Pound (1.2778) is holding well above 1.27 and looks bullish for an eventual rise above 1.28.

USDRUB (88.4760) has fallen as expected, breaking below 89. If an immediate bounce is not seen from 88, it could be bearish for a fall towards 86. Watch for a possible bounce from 88.

USDINR (83.0325) tested a low of 82.9250 before bouncing back to close above 83. While it holds above 82.90, a rise towards 83.20 is possible. However, if it happens to break below 82.90 on the back of Euro strength, then a fall to 82.80/65 can be seen. We would suggest caution near 82.90.

EURINR (91.2195) could be bullish towards 91.50-92 in the coming week if it holds above 90.80. Else a fall back towards 90 could be seen by end of next week. Watch price action near 90.80.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. Need to see if the fall extends further to negate our view of seeing more rise. The inflation numbers showed a mixed picture. The US Headline CPI inflation rose 3.3% in December from 3.12% a month ago. The Core CPI however rose 3.9% in December, slower than 3.99% seen in the previous month. The German yields continue to move up and are keeping up our short-term bullish view intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are coming down in line with our expectation. Outlook is bearish and more fall is on the cards.

The US 10Yr (3.98%) and the 30Yr (4.18%) yields have dipped slightly. The yields have to fall below 3.9% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr) to negate the view of seeing a rise to 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.3%-4.4% (30Yr) and fall to 3.8% (10Yr), 4% (830Yr) and even lower.

The German 10Yr (2.23%) and the 30Yr (2.42%) yields have inched up further. The bullish view of seeing a rise to 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) remains intact. After that a reversal is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1619%) is coming down as expected. A break below 7.16% will clear the way for the fall to 7.1% that we have been expecting.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0613%) is likely to break the 7.05%-7.13% range on the downside and fall to 7%-6.95%.

Dow Jones has recovered well from its intraday low which leaves the chances high for it to break on the upside of its sideways range. DAX has fallen sharply and might break below its support and fall further in the coming sessions. Nifty is moving up within its range and has scope to break on the upside and see a test of its crucial resistance. Nikkei continues to rise and is bullish for a test of its key resistance before a corrective fall can happen. Shanghai has bounced back as the support at 2865 has held well and may see a short term rise towards 2915-2925 before resuming the fall again.

Dow (37711.02, +0.04%) has risen back well from the low of 37424 yesterday. That leaves the chances high of it breaking the 37250-37800 range on the upside and rise to 38000 and higher.

DAX (16547.03, -0.86%) has come down sharply, failing to rise above 16700. This increases the chances to break 16500 and fall to 16000 and lower.

Nifty (21647.20, +0.13%) is moving up within its 21400-21850 range intact. For now, we expect a break above 21850 and a rise to 22000-22200 first and then a fresh fall.

Nikkei (35450, +1.14%) continues to rise. Outlook is bullish for a test of 36000 and then a corrective fall can be seen.

Shanghai (2897.87, +0.39%) has bounced back as the support at 2865 has held well contrary to our view to see a break below 2865. A rise to 2915-2925 can be seen before resuming the fall again.

Brent and WTI have risen towards the upper end of the range. A break on the upside, if seen, can rise towards $ 82 and $ 76 respectively. Gold fell from a high of 2056 Whereas Silver fell to a low of 22.63 on Thursday after the release of higher US CPI data. Outlook is bearish for both the precious metals while below the resistance at 2060 and 23.30/23.80 respectively. Copper has fallen back but can still see a rally while above the support at 3.75. Natural Gas has bounced back above 3.0 and if sustains, can move up further in the near term.

Brent ($ 79.15) has moved up towards the upper end of the $ 80-75 range. A break above $ 80, if seen, can target $ 82.

WTI ($ 73.76) has risen towards $ 74, the upper end of the $ 74-70 range. A break above $ 74, if seen, can trigger a rise towards $ 76.

Gold (2038.60) is holding well below the resistance at 2060. Outlook is bearish for a break below 2020 and fall towards 2000-1980 while below 2060.

Silver (23.06) has bounced back above 23 from yesterday’s fall to 22.63. Resistance is now at 23.30-23.80. While below these, outlook remains bearish for a fall towards 22-21.80.

Copper (3.8015) tested 3.8240 yesterday and has come down from there. But as long as it holds above 3.75, a rise towards 3.85-3.88 cannot be negated. Only a strong break below 3.75 could lead to a further fall towards 3.70.

Natural Gas (3.1810) has bounced back from a low of 2.9450 contrary to our view for a fall to 2.80-2.75. If the bounce sustains, it can move up towards 3.4-3.5.

7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -16.1 …Expected -15.7 …Previous -17.0

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 6.1% …Expected – …Previous 11.7%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 5.94 …Expected – …Previous 5.55

13:30 19:00 US PPI
Expn -0.2% …Expected 0.1% …Previous 0.0%

13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.4 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.0

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn 6.7 A$ Bln …Expected 7.5 A$ Bln …Previous 7.7A $ Bln …Actual 11.4 A$ Bln

13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.12% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.26% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.28% …Actual 0.31%