Dollar Index continues to trade within 102-103 while the Euro has fallen from 1.10 and could fall to 1.09-1.0870 again in the near term. EURJPY and USDJPY have declined and look bearish for the near term. USDCNY has slipped and could now be headed towards 7.12 while below 7.18. Aussie may trade within 0.6735-0.6650 while Pound has fallen within 1.28-1.27. USDRUB could test 86-85 before moving up again. EURINR could fall towards 90.50. USDINR can fall to 82.75/65 if it breaks below 82.80.

Dollar Index (102.315) has been moving within the 102-103 range and could continue so for a few more sessions. The overall trend has been down since Oct-23. While the index sustains below 103, it can have some scope for a further fall towards 102-101.50 again in the coming weeks.

EURUSD (1.0966) has fallen from 1.10 but has immediate support near 1.0920 which has to sustain and produce a bounce back else could allow for a fall to 1.09 or lower in the next few sessions.

EURJPY (159.05) has fallen sharply below 160 and looks bearish for a further decline to 158-157.

Dollar-Yen (145.04) holds well below 146.41 and is coming down towards 144-143 before a pause is seen.

USDCNY (7.1672) could trade within 7.18-7.12 for a few sessions.

Aussie (0.6702) has been highly fluctuating in the 0.6735-0.6650 region and could continue so for some more sessions.

Pound (1.2762) declined within the 1.28-1.27 range. It would have to hold above 1.27 and sustain to slowly rise above 1.28 else could fall sharply on a break below 1.27.

USDRUB (88.3715) has broken below 89 and is bearish for a fall to 86-85 before a pause is seen.

USDINR (82.9275) fell to a low of 82.8550 Last Friday before moving up to close above 82.90. However, on the offshore market, USDINR is currently trading near 82.81. Failure to sustain above 82.80 can open chances of 82.75/65 on the downside.

EURINR (90.7972) has immediate support at 90.50 above which view could be bullish. A sharp fall in Euro, if seen, below 1.09, could take EURINR below 90.50 in the medium term. For now, watch price action at 90.50.

The US Treasury yields have come down further. Failure to rise from here will negate our view of seeing a rise and in turn will see the broader downtrend resuming from here itself. The German yields have dipped slightly but are likely to reverse higher again and keep intact our bullish view. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced on Friday. Though a further rise from here cannot be ruled out, resistances can cap the upside and keep the broader bearish bias intact.

The US 10Yr (3.94%) and the 30Yr (4.18%) yields have dipped further. As mentioned earlier, a fall below 3.9% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr) will negate the rise to 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.3%-4.4% (30Yr). That in turn will bring back the earlier bearishness and drag the yields down to 3.8% (10Yr), 4% (830Yr) and even lower.

The German 10Yr (2.18%) and the 30Yr (2.39%) yields have dipped slightly but are likely to be short-lived. The yields can reverse higher again and keep intact the bullish view of seeing a rise to 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr). Thereafter a reversal is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1795%) is holding above 7.16% and has bounced. But while below 7.2%-7.21%, the bias is negative to see a fall to 7.1%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0689%) is holding above 7.5%. A test of 7.1% looks likely before the yields turn down again. View is bearish to see 7%-6.95% while below 7.1%.

Dow Jones has come down, failing to break above the upper end of its sideways range. DAX looks mixed and range-bound between 16500 and 17000. Nifty can rise towards its key immediate resistance before a corrective fall can be seen. Nikkei can face rejections from 36000. Shanghai appears range bound within 2865-2905.

Dow (37592.98, -0.31%) has come down, failing to breach 37800. This keeps the 37250-37800 range intact. The US markets are closed today on account of a public holiday.

DAX (16704.56, +0.95%) looks mixed and range-bound between 16500 and 17000. A breakout on either side of this range will determine the next move.

As expected, Nifty (21894.55, +1.14%) has risen above 21850. While this sustains, a rise to 22000-22200 can be seen and then a reversal is possible.

Nikkei (35880.50, +0.85%) is hading up towards its crucial resistance at 36000. While that holds, a corrective fall towards 34500-34000 can be seen.

Shanghai (2890.91, +0.32%) appears range bound within 2865-2905. As long as it holds above 2865, there is scope for a rise towards 2940-2950 before resuming the fall.

Crude prices could remain range bound for some more time. Gold and Silver rose sharply to test their resistance last Friday and have dipped. Outlook is bearish for both the precious metals while below 2060 and 23.80 respectively. Copper is attempting to break below its 3.75 support and looks bearish to fall further in the near term. Natural Gas looks mixed and range bound within 3.40-2.90.

Brent ($ 78.50) rose sharply to $ 80.75 on Friday and has come down from there. We can expect a sideways range of $ 82-76/75 to hold for some time before moving up towards $ 85.

WTI ($ 72.80) rose to $ 75.26 last Friday and has fallen back from there. We can expect a range of $ 76-70 to hold for some time before an eventual break above $ 76 is seen, targeting $ 78-80.

Gold (2056.30) rose sharply to test 2067 last Friday and has dipped slightly. It has to surpass 2060 to open doors towards 2080-2100. Else it will remain vulnerable to a fall towards 2020 or lower.

Silver (23.40) tested the resistance at 23.80 on last Friday and has come down slightly from there. While 23.80 holds, the outlook will remain bearish for a fall towards 22-21.80.

Copper (3.7570) is attempting to break below the support at 3.75. View is bearish for a fall towards 3.70 or even lower to 3.60 before a bounce back can happen.

Natural Gas (3.1080) indeed rose to 3.3770 in line with expectation and has dipped from there to levels below 3.20. The outlook is mixed. A range of 3.40-2.90 can hold for some time.

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.26%

10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -0.7%

10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 10.9

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
Expn – …Expected -0.4 …Previous -0.5 …Actual -0.3

1:30 07:00 CN PPI
Expn – …Expected -2.6 …Previous -3.0 …Actual -2.7

7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -16.1 …Expected -15.7 …Previous -15.9 …Actual -14.2

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 6.1% …Expected – …Previous 11.6% …Actual 2.4%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 5.94 …Expected – …Previous 5.55 …Actual 5.69

13:30 19:00 US PPI
Expn -0.2% …Expected 0.1% …Previous -0.1% …Actual -0.1%

13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.4 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.0 …Actual 0.0