The FOMC statement tonight would be crucial to watch to see guidance on future interest rates as recently the Fed officials have been moving away from any hurried interest rate cuts in their media speeches while markets expect a 50-50 chance of a rate cut in March. Dollar Index trades within 103-104 while Euro looks likely to break below 1.08 and turn bearish towards 1.0750-1.07. EURJPY and USDJPY could see a near term rise but are likely to decline in the medium term while below 161 and 148.50 respectively. Pound has been volatile within the 1.26-1.28 zone while Aussie looks bearish towards 0.65/64. USDCNY could rise towards 7.20 while EURINR looks likely to break below 90 soon and fall towards 89/88 in the medium term. USDINR is stuck within 83.05-83.20 region and could continue so for a few more sessions.

Dollar Index (103.614) has risen within the 103-104 region. View remains bullish towards 104. It would be crucial to watch the FOMC statement and any guidance that it gives on future interest rates.

EURUSD (1.0818) has dipped within the 1.0860-1.0800 range and could turn bearish towards 1.0750-1.07 soon. Only a sustained break above 1.09 can change the view otherwise which look less likely just now.

EURJPY (159.697) has immediate trend resistance near 161 but the pair looks like it can sustain below 160 and eventually decline to 159-158. Immediate view looks bearish.

Dollar-Yen (147.67) has been holding well above 147 and could continue immediate trade within 147-148.50. In the medium term, view could be bearish while below 148.50 to see an eventual break below 147 towards 146/145.

Pound (1.2674) has been volatile over the last few sessions. Yesterday saw a test of 1.2640 with an intra-day high of 1.2721. The fall today also looks sharp and could be vulnerable to see a break below 1.26 soon.

Aussie (0.6568) has fallen sharply from 0.6624 seen yesterday. While below 0.6650, Aussie could dip to test 0.65 or lower soon.

USDCNY (7.1805) has risen slightly today and while above immediate support near 7.16, it can move up towards 7.20.

USDINR (83.11) is largely stable and holds within 83.05-83.20 range for now.

EURINR (89.9158) has broken below 90 again and could see a slight bounce from 89.76 in the next few sessions but medium term view is biased to see a fall towards 89-88. View is likely to be bearish for the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields continue to come down as expected. The Fed meeting outcome tonight will determine whether the fall can continue or reverse higher again. The German yields have bounced but may not sustain. We expect the yields to remain below their resistances and continue to fall in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are coming down in line with our expectation. Outlook is bearish and there is room to fall more from here.

The US 10Yr (4.04%) and the 30Yr (4.25%) yields have declined further. This keeps intact our view of the yields fall below 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) towards 3.9%-3.8% (10Yr) and 4.1%-4% (30Yr). The Fed meeting outcome tonight will need a watch.

The German 10Yr (2.27%) and the 30Yr (2.49%) yields have bounced. But this may not sustain. While below 2.35% (10Yr) and the 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) resistances a fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2%-2.1% (30Yr) cannot be ruled out.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1570%) has dipped below. This keeps intact our bearish view of seeing 7.1% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0300%) yield is coming down as expected and can test 7%-6.95% while below 7.08%-7.1%.

Dow Jones has moved up towards its immediate resistance. A sustained break above it can see a target of its next key long term resistance from where a fall back can be seen. DAX has risen towards 17000 and remains bullish for a break above it and move up further in the near term. Nifty has fallen back failing to sustain the rise above 21600 and looks mixed for now. Nikkei has come down below 36000 and looks vulnerable to dip further in the near term. Shanghai has resistance at 2900-2950, while below which, outlook is bearish.

Dow (38467.31, +0.35%) has risen above 38400. While a further rise to 39000-39300 is possible, one has to be cautious for a corrective fall thereafter.

DAX (16972.34, +0.18%) has room to rise further towards 17200-17500 while above 16500. Thereafter a fall back is possible.

Nifty (21522.10, -0.99%) has come down, failing to sustain higher. A fall below 21450 can drag it down to 21000-20800. Broadly we can expect it to oscillate in a range of 21000-22000 for now.

Nikkei (35902.50, -0.45%) has come down below 36000. This keeps our bearish view inact for a fall towards 35000.

Shanghai (2826, -0.16%) fell to a low of 2783 and is now bouncing back from there. It might dip further towards 2750. Overall outlook is bearish below 2900-2950.

Crude prices have recovered slightly but have strong resistances overhead which can cap the upside. Gold has dipped but will remain bullish while above the support at 2040-2030. Silver outlook remains bullish for the near term. The FOMC meeting tonight might bring some volatility for precious metals. Natural Gas is stable but has scope to see a rally soon while above the support at 2.0. Copper has moved up as expected and has potential to target its key resistance in the near term.

Brent ($ 82.22) has bounced back from a low of $ 80.83. Key resistance at $ 85-85.50, while below which, Brent is vulnerable to see a dip towards $ 79-78.

WTI ($ 77.56) has recovered from a low of $ 75.86. But as long as it remains below the resistance at $ 80-81, chances of seeing a dip towards $ 74-72 will remain intact.

Gold (2051.40) has dipped after testing a high of 2068. However, a rise towards 2080 or even 2100 is still possible while above the support at 2040-2030.

Silver (23.18) is gradually moving up. Outlook is bullish for a rise towards 24 or even 25 in the coming days while above the support at 23-22.80.

Copper (3.8985) is breaking above 3.90 as expected. A test of key resistance at 3.95 looks likely now. If that hold, a dip to 3.85-3.83 can be seen.

Natural Gas (2.0840) remains stable above 2.0. On the upside, resistance is seen at 2.15. While 2.0 hold, there are good chances for a break above 2.15 and rise towards 2.3-2.5. Only a decisive break below 2.0 can open doors towards 1.5.

0:30 06:00 AU CPI
Expn 4.9% …Expected 4.3% …Previous 5.4%

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 143K …Previous 164K

13:30 19:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.1% …Previous 0.0%

19:00 00:30 US FOMC Meeting
Expn 5.50% …Expected 5.50% …Previous 5.50%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected 2.5% …Previous 2.5% …Actual 2.4%

10:00 15:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected -0.1% …Previous -0.1% …Actual 0.0%

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn – …Expected 96.2 …Previous 96.2 …Actual 96.3

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 5.2% …Expected 5.8% …Previous 4.88% …Actual 5.4%

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 112.0 …Expected 113.9 …Previous 108 …Actual 114.8