The Dollar Index is moving within the range of 104.60-103.90 but there could be scope for a test of 103.50. Meanwhile Euro is trading near the upper end of its 1.0750-1.08 range and could have scope to test 1.0850. EURJPY trades above 161 and can test 162 before pausing while USDJPY needs to sustain above 149 to extend its rise towards 150-151 on the upside. USDCNY continues to trade near its resistance of 7.20. Aussie has bounced back sharply above 0.65 and could see a further rise towards 0.66 if it manages to break past 0.6550. Pound is headed towards the upper end of the 1.25-1.27 region. EURINR is rising towards 89.80/90 as expected but could be bearish while below 90. USDINR continues to trade within 83.10-82.90/80 for the this week as well. Important data releases to watch out today are IN CPI & IIP data.

Dollar Index (103.98) continues to move within the range of 104.60-103.90 but it looks like the index can dip to 103.50 in the very near term from where a bounce back towards 104 or higher could be possible.

EURUSD (1.0796) is currently trading near the upper end of its earlier mentioned range of 1.0750-1.08. It needs to sustain above 1.08 to further test 1.0850 in the coming sessions. Overall, immediate broad range of 1.07-1.0850 may hold for the near term.

EURJPY (161.01) has risen slightly above our expected level of 161 and if sustained, could soon test 162 before pausing. Watch price action at current levels near 161.

Dollar-Yen (149.13) seems to be dipping back towards 149. Unless a further break past 149.5 is seen it will be difficult to test higher targets of 150-151 before topping out. Else failure to do so, can bring it down towards 148-147 in the near term from current levels itself.

USDCNY (7.1924) is closed today but the narrow region of 7.20-7.18 could hold in the near term.

Aussie (0.6524) seems to have followed our alternate view of seeing a bounce back as it has risen sharply above 0.65, on testing 0.6480 on the downside. Looking forward, a further break past 0.655 if seen, can take it higher towards 0.66 in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.2636) could be headed towards 1.27 in the near term. Immediate view is bullish to the upper end of 1.26-1.27/28 range.

USDINR (83.04) is holding well within our expected 82.80-83.10 range mentioned on Friday. Some volatility could be expected today as the markets expect a lower IN-CPI release today (5.09%) than previous release of 5.69%.

EURINR (89.6676) could soon move up towards 89.80/90. Thereafter as mentioned previously, it can fall back towards 89/88 while below 90. Immediate range of 90-89/88 may hold.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up and are coming closer to their key resistances. We expect the resistance to hold and the yields to see a fresh fall from there. The US CPI data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields are poised at their key resistances. We can expect the yield reverse lower from here and resume the overall downtrend. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are witnessing a corrective rise in line with our expectation. There is room to move up further before the broader downtrend resumes.

The US 10Yr (4.18%) and the 30Yr (4.37%) yields are coming closer to their 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) resistance which can halt this corrective rise. We expect the yields to turnaround and resume the downtrend targeting 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.38%) has risen above 2.35% while the 30Yr (2.56%) yield remains stable. The 10Yr is likely to fall below 2.35% and see a fresh fall to 2%. The 30Yr has resistance at 2.6% while below which a fresh fall to 2.2%-2.1% (30Yr) can be seen going forward.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1067%) has risen to 7.1% as expected. An extended corrective rise to 7.15%-7.18% cannot be ruled out. But while below 7.2%, the broader trend is down and the yield is likely to see a fresh fall targeting 6.9%-6.8% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0703%) is heading up towards 7.1%. The price action thereafter will need a close watch to see if the rise is extending or the yield is reversing lower.

Dow Jones has scope to test its crucial resistance in the near term from where a correction is possible. DAX remains consolidative. Nifty can trade in a narrow range of 21500-22150 as long as it holds above 21500. Only a break below 21500 can trigger a fall towards 21000. Nikkei and Shanghai are closed today.

Dow (38671.69, -0.14%) may have limited upside from here to test 39000-39300. Thereafter a strong correction is possible. Supports are at 38500 and 38100-38000.

DAX (16926.50, -0.22%) remains stuck between 16800 and 17000. A break above 17000 can take it up to 17500 and then a corrective fall is possible. Failure to breach 17000 can trigger the corrective fall from here itself. We will have to wait and see.

Nifty (21782.50, +0.3%) has bounced on Friday. 21500 is an important support which if broken can drag the Nifty down towards the lower end of the 21000-22150 range. While 21500 holds, then 21500-22150 can be a narrow trading range.

Nikkei (36897.42) is closed today. It rose sharply to test 37287 and has come down from there to close below 37000 on last friday. Good support is at 36000. While that holds, chances of break above 37000 and rise towards 38000 or even 39000 cannot be negated.

Shanghai (2865.90) is closed for this week.

Crude prices have dipped slightly but have the potential to rise towards their key resistance from where a fallback can be seen again. Gold has declined below 2040 but downside could be limited to 2020/2000. Silver is gradually moving up towards 23 and has room for further upside while above 22. Natural Gas and Copper continue to fall and have scope to test their key support before a bounce back can happen.

Brent ($ 81.82) has dipped slightly from last Friday’s high of 82.45. However, chances of $ 84-85 are still there given the sharp rally seen last week. Then a fall can be seen towards $ 80.

WTI ($ 76.45) has come down a bit from Friday’s high of $ 77.29. Support is seen at $ 74. So, given the sharp rise last week and above $ 74, chances of a rise towards $ 78-80 remains. Then a fall can be seen towards $ 75-74.

Gold (2037.50) has dipped below 2040. Good support is seen at 2020-2000. While above 2000, we can expect Gold to trade sideways within 2000-2080 for a while. A break below 2000 is needed for bearishness.

Silver (22.75) is moving up towards 23 as expected. A rise towards 23.50 or even 24.00 looks possible while above 22.

Copper (3.6815) continues to dip. The view is bearish for a fall to 3.60 and then a rise can be seen towards 3.80.

Natural Gas (1.8010) continues its fall. It has scope to test 1.7-1.5 in the near term. After that, a rise towards 2.0 is possible.

2:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 4.8% …Expected 2.4% …Previous 2.4%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 5.54 …Expected 5.09 …Previous 5.69

DATA FRIDAY
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12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 16.0K …Previous 0.1K …Actual 37.3