The Dollar Index is moving within a very narrow range of 104.60-103.90. Meanwhile Euro has become a bit uncertain due to its lesser volatility, questioning as to whether a rise to 1.08-1.085 will happen or not. However, we may consider a narrow range of 1.0750-1.08 to hold for now. EURJPY is near our mentioned target of 161 from where it may face rejection else could rally to 162 while USDJPY has risen past 149 and can further extend its rise towards 150-151 in the coming sessions. USDCNY continues to trade near its resistance of 7.20. Aussie looks bearish to 0.64-0.635 while below 0.65. Pound is expected to rise towards 1.27-1.28 in the near term with downside limited to 1.25. EURINR is rising towards 89.80/90 as expected. USDINR may continue to trade within 83.10-82.90/80 for the next week as well.

Dollar Index (104.13) has been moving within a very narrow range of 104.60-103.90 and a decisive break on the either side of the range will be needed for further clarity in near term direction. Overall, view remains bearish below important resistance at 105.

EURUSD (1.0777) has also been moving within a narrow range of 1.0750-1.08 although we have been mentioning a broader range of 1.07-1.0850 to hold for the near term. Decisive breakout on either side of the broad mentioned range is needed for medium term directional clarity. Overall, we may expect Euro to eventually rise while above 1.07.

EURJPY (160.91) broke above 160.40 mentioned yesterday to rise towards 161, the upper end of the 161-158 range we have been looking at earlier. There could be a rejection from 161 that could drag the pair down to 159/158. Failure to pause at 161 can take it higher to 162 before the expected dip is seen. Watch price action at 161.

Dollar-Yen (149.29) has risen past 149 and as mentioned yesterday, it may extend rise to 150-151 before topping out.

USDCNY (7.1964) continues to hover near its interim resistance of 7.20 and unless a sustained break past it is seen, it may continue to move within a narrow region of 7.20-7.18 in the near term. Watch price action around 7.20.

Aussie (0.6496) failed to sustain above 0.65 and has dipped slightly below it. If the fall continues, a fall to 0.64 looks likely in the next few sessions. Bearishness can be negated if an immediate bounce back is seen from current levels.

Pound (1.2620) has been fluctuating within the broad 1.25-1.27 region which may continue to hold for some more time.

USDINR (82.96) bounced back from 82.8850, holding well within our expected 82.80-83.10 range mentioned yesterday. For the pair to become more bearish, it has to necessarily break below 82.80 over the next 1-2 weeks else it might again move higher to 83.10+ levels.

EURINR (89.4307) is rising in line with our expectations and could move up towards 89.80/90. Thereafter, it can fall back towards 89/88 while below 90. Immediate range of 90-89 may hold.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up and are coming closer to their key resistances. We expect the resistances to hold and the yields to see a fresh fall and keep the overall downtrend intact. A strong and sustained break above those resistances is needed to prove our bearish view wrong. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are holding well above their supports. This leaves the chances high to see a corrective rise in the near-term before the overall downtrend resumes. The RBI left the repo rates unchanged at 6.5% yesterday.

The US 10Yr (4.15%) and the 30Yr (4.34%) yields are moving up to test their resistances at 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr). We expect these resistances to hold and trigger a fresh fall towards 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) and keep the broader downtrend intact.

The German 10Yr (2.34%) and the 30Yr (2.56%) yields are coming closer to their key 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) resistances. We expect the yields to reverse lower from here and see a fresh fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2%-2.1% (30Yr). That will keep the broader downtrend intact.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0789%) is getting support below 7.05%. A rise to 7.1% looks possible. But the broader view remains bearish for a fall to 6.9%-6.8% while below 7.2% (the higher resistance).

The 5Yr GOI (7.0242%) is holding well above 6.95% and can rise to 7.1% on a break above 7.04%. The price action around 7.1% will need a close watch. A strong break below 6.95% is needed to increase the downside pressure for a fall to 6.8%.

Dow Jones remains higher and has scope to see a test of its crucial resistance in the near term from where a correction is possible. DAX is oscillate between 16800 and 17000/17100 but bias is positive to see a break on the upside. Nifty is struggling to breach 22000 decisively. So, the chances of a break above 22150 and rise towards its key resistance might get reduced. It could trade sideways below 22150/22000 for a while. Nikkei has risen sharply breaking above the resistance at 37000 and while this break sustains, there is room to move up further in the coming sessions.

Dow (38726.33, +0.13%) is holding higher but seems to lack strength. But we still hold the view of seeing a rise to 39000-39300 first and then see a strong correction.

DAX (16963.83, +0.25%) continues to oscillate between 16800 and 17000. The bias is positive to break 17000 and see a rise to 17500 and then see a reversal is possible.

Nifty (21717.95, -0.97%) is struggling to breach 22000 decisively. That reduces the chances of breaking above 22150. So, the 21000-22000 range is intact and the chances are looking high for the Nifty to come down towards the lower end of this range now.

Nikkei (37110, +0.67%) has risen sharply above the resistance at 37000. If the break sustains, a further rise towards 38000 or maybe higher towards 39000 can be seen.

Shanghai (2865.90) is closed today. But the resistance at 2900-2910 (revised from 2920) can hold and lead to a fall back towards 2700 or even lower.

Crude prices have risen sharply well above our expected level and looks likely to head towards their key resistance from where a fall back can be seen again. Gold is indecisive and can remain consolidative for a while. Silver has bounced back as the mentioned support at 22 is holding well and has scope to extend the bounce further in the near term. Natural Gas and Copper continues to dip and remain vulnerable to come down towards their key support.

Brent ($ 81.55) has surged towards $ 82. We had expected to see a fall from $ 80-81. It may now rise further towards $ 84-85 and then a fall towards $ 80 is possible.

WTI ($ 76.16) has risen sharply above $ 76 contrary to our view to see a fall from $ 70-68. It may rise further towards $ 78-80. Then a fall can be seen towards $ 75-74.

Gold (2049.20) looks indecisive. It can stay range bound within 2020-2080. Chances of rise towards 2080-2100 will remain there as long as it holds above 2025-2020.

Silver (22.68) bounced back after testing a low of 22.20. View remains the same to see a rise towards 23 or maybe even higher towards 23.50-24.00 while it stays above 22.

Copper (3.7060) has come down sharply to 3.70. Can fall further towards 3.60. Thereafter, a bounce back can be seen towards 3.80.

Natural Gas (1.8690) continues to dip. Can fall towards 1.7-1.5 and then a rise towards 2.0 is possible.

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 15.0K …Previous 0.1K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50% …Actual 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35% …Actual 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75% …Actual 6.75%