The Dollar Index could move within the range of 105-104 for some time before eventually breaking lower. Meanwhile, Euro is rising well but needs to break past 1.08 to further test 1.085 on the upside. EURJPY is hovering below its resistance of 162 and USDJPY continues to move within the range of 151-149. USDCNY is currently trading within the narrow range of 7.18-7.20. Aussie below 0.655, looks bearish to 0.65-0.645. Pound continues to trade within a revised range of 1.25-1.27. EURINR could remain bearish to 88 while it trades below the resistance near 89.50-90. USDINR continues to trade within 83.10-82.90/80 and could have scope to test the lower end of the range soon.

Dollar Index (104.229) has been coming down over the last 4-sessions from 105. Immediate support is seen at 104 which if holds can keep the index within 104-105 region for the near term. But overall while below long term resistance at 105, view is bearish for a further decline below 104 in the medium term. Watch price action at 104.

EURUSD (1.0777) has risen well since the last 2-3 sessions and a further break past 1.08 can take it towards 1.0840-1.0850; else Euro could trade within the narrow range of 1.07-1.08. Watch price action near 1.08.

EURJPY (161.63) tested 162 before declining from there. If 162 holds well, we may expect a fall towards 161 or lower in the near term. Only a break past 162, if seen will be further bullish towards 164 (looks less likely).

Dollar-Yen (149.94) has dipped over the last few sessions from 151 and has immediate support at 149 above which the pair could be ranged within 149-151 for sometime till a breakout on either side of the range is seen.

USDCNY (7.1940) is currently trading within the narrow region of 7.18-7.20. A strong break past 7.20 will be needed to test 7.22-7.24 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6536) failed in its attempt to rise past 0.655 and has dipped slightly from there. While below 0.6550, near term view is bearish to 0.65-0.450.

Pound (1.2618) tested 1.255 on Friday, slightly higher than our mentioned target of 1.25 before rising back. The overall range of 1.25-1.27 is likely to hold well for some more time.

USDINR (83.02) closed at 83.02 on Friday but trades lower near 82.91 on the NDF markets just now. There could be scope for a fall towards 82.90/80 in he next few sessions while below 83.10/05. Today the currency trading is closed due to Shivaji Jayanti.

EURINR (89.4870) has two immediate resistances at 89.50 and 90 respectively below which, the view remains bearish to 88 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields remain higher. While they sustain higher, a further rise is possible in the coming days before turning down again. The German yields can also go up further from here while they sustain higher. As such the expected reversal in both the US Treasury and the German yields are not happening now. The 10Yr GoI has resistances to cap the upside and keep the overall downtrend intact. We expect the yield to come down eventually. The 5Yr GoI remains mixed and has chances of going either way. We will have to wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.28%) and the 30Yr (4.44%) yields are holding higher. While they sustain above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) a further rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) can be seen now. Thereafter the yields can turn down again.

The German 10Yr (2.40%) and the 30Yr (2.54%) yields are holding higher. The 10Yr can rise to 2.6% while it sustains above 2.35%. The 30Yr can rise to 2.7%-2.8% on a break above 2.6%. That will negate the chances of the reversal that we have been expecting.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0968%) keeps alive the chances of testing the 7.15%-7.18% resistance again before turning down again. The overall trend is down, and the yields can fall to 6.9%-6.8%. A break/close below 7.05% can accelerate the fall.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0756%) can test 7.1% again while above 7.04%. A sustained rise above 7.1% is needed to become bullish. Else the yield can fall back to 7% again. It is a wait and watch situation here.

All major stock indices have key resistance overhead which may hold and lead to fall back from there. Nikkei indeed face rejection near 39000 resistance and has fallen back below 38500 in line with expectations. Dow is closed today. Nifty and Dax could head towards mentioned resistances.

Dow (38627.99, -0.37%) is closed today. It looks mixed and range bound between 38000 and 39000. Resistance at 39300 can be tested before a reversal is seen.

DAX (17117.44, +0.42%) can rise to 17500-17600 on a break above 17200. Support will now be around 17000. Failure to rise past 17200 can keep it range within 17200-17000 for a while.

Nifty (22040.70, +0.59%) is heading up towards 22150 as mentioned on Friday. We expect the Nifty to turn down from there towards 21800 again. But a break above 22150 can see an extended rise to 22500. Have to watch the price action around 22150.

Nikkei (38360, -0.33%) rose sharply to test 38865 last friday in line with our expectations and has fallen back from there to trade below 38500. The level of 39000 is a crucial resistance zone. While that holds, a further dip towards 37500 can be seen in the near term.

Shanghai (2890.54, +0.86) opened higher today after last week holiday and is moving up towards its crucial resistance at 2900. While 2900 holds, a fall towards 2700-2650 is possible in the coming sessions.

Crude prices seems to be approaching their key resistance which are expected to cap the upside and produce a fall from their. Gold and Copper have broken above our mentioned resistance and look bullish to move up further in the near term. Silver indeed tested its upper end of the sideways range as expected but has dipped slightly failing to break on the upside. However, bias is positive to see an eventual break on the upside and move up further in the coming days. Natural has come down towards its crucial support from where a bounce back is expected to happen.

Brent ($ 83.05) seems to gradually moving up towards the resistance at $ 84-85. While $ 85 holds, a fall back towards $ 81-80 can be seen. A narrow range of $ 85-80 and a broad range of $ 85-75 can persist for some time.

WTI ($ 77.85) might see a test of its key resistance at $ 80. That can hold and lead to a fall towards $ 75. A narrow range of $ 80-75 and a broad range of $ 80-70 can hold for some time.

Gold (2031) has broken above the resistance at 2020. This has reduced the chances of a break below 2000 and fall towards 1950. It can now move up further to 2040-2060.

Silver (23.24) moved up sharply to the upper end of the 22-23.50 as expected and has dipped slightly from there failing to rise further above 23.50. For now, the 22-23.50 range remains intact. However, bias is positive to see an eventual break above 23.50 and rise towards 24 or even 25 in the coming days.

Copper (3.8215) rose sharply to test 3.8440 on last friday breaking above the mentioned resistance at 3.80. While this break sustains, a further rise towards 3.90-3.95 can be seen.

Natural Gas (1.5490) has come down towards the support at 1.5 in line with expectations. 1.5 is a crucial support which is expected to hold and push the Natural gas higher towards 2.0-2.1.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY
—————
13:30 19:00 US PPI
Expn 0.1% …Expected 0.1% …Previous -0.1% …Actual 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.0 …Expected 0.1 …Previous -0.1 …Actual 0.5

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1470K …Expected1470K …Previous 1562K …Actual 1331