The Dollar Index is headed towards the upper end of its range of 104-105 while Euro has held below 1.08 and is coming down within the 1.08-1.07 range. EURJPY is holding well below its resistance of 162 and could see a near term fall to 161 soon. While USDJPY is moving towards the upper end of its 149-151 range. USDCNY is near the crucial level 7.20, watch price action around it to see if the pair breaks higher or falls off towards 7.18. Aussie below 0.6550, looks bearish to 0.65-0.6450. Pound continues to trade within 1.25-1.27. EURINR could remain bearish to 89-88 while it trades below the resistance near 89.50-90. USDINR may hold the range of 83.10-82.90 for the day.

Dollar Index (104.38) has bounced well from 104.14 and could rise to 105 as mentioned yesterday. An immediate range of 104-105 may hold for the rest of the week.

EURUSD (1.0763) tested 1.0789 yesterday before coming down from there. As mentioned yesterday, 1.07-1.08 could hold as an immediate range. Only a break above 1.08 could take it higher but that looks less likely for now.

EURJPY (161.79) is trading below immediate resistance at 162 but is not falling sharply from here as well. A rejection is needed within the next 1-2 sessions for the pair to decline towards 161 or lower. A break past 162, if seen can be bullish towards 164 (less likely)

Dollar-Yen (150.31) sustained well above the mentioned support of 149 and is headed towards the upper end of its 149-151 range.

USDCNY (7.1975) is slowly inching higher within the 7.18-7.20 range. A strong break past 7.20 will be needed to test 7.22-7.24 in the near term. The central bank has slashed 5Yr Loan Prime Rate (LPR) rate by 25bps to 3.95% to boost economy but the spot seems to be trading stable.

Aussie (0.6522) tested 0.65519 yesterday before coming off from there as expected. It could further fall towards 0.65-0.6450, while below 0.6550.

Pound (1.2584) seems to be declining within the 1.25-1.27 range that can hold for the rest of this week.

USDINR (83.02) was closed yesterday on account of Shivaji Jayanti. We may expect trade within 83.10-82.90 for the next few sessions.

EURINR (89.3571) has declined from 89.5516 seen yesterday. Near term view remains intact to see a fall towards 89-88.


The US Treasury and the German yields continue to remain higher. They can rise more from current levels before resuming their overall downtrend. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are looking mixed for now. They have room to rise from here. The 10Yr can turn down after that rise. But the 5Yr will need a watch to see what is happening.

The US 10Yr (4.31%) and the 30Yr (4.47%) yields continue to move up in line with our expectation. They can test 4.4%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) and then possibly turn down again.

The German 10Yr (2.41%) and the 30Yr (2.56%) yields sustain higher but are stable. We retain our view of the 10Yr rising to 2.6% while it remains above 2.35%. The 30Yr on the other hand, can rise to 2.7%-2.8% on a break above 2.6%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0968%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0756%) were closed yesterday. The 10Yr has chances to test the 7.15%-7.18% resistance and then resume the downtrend targeting 6.9%-6.8%. The 5Yr can test 7.1% and then will need a close watch.


Dow Jones can remain consolidative above 38000 for a while with the scope of seeing a test of its crucial resistance from where a correction can be seen. Nifty is attempting to break above its resistance of 22150. Need to see if it sustains above 22000 or not. There could be chances of rise towards its next resistance while it stays above 22000. Nikkei is consolidating in a narrow range but a fall back cannot be negated while it remains below 39000. Shanghai is breaking above its key resistance of 2900 and if the break sustains, a further rise can be seen in near term thereby negating our bearish view.

Dow (38627.99) was closed yesterday. It can continue to oscillate between 38000 and 39000 with chances of testing 39300 on the upside before a reversal.

DAX (17092.26, -0.15%) has come down but sustains above 17000. While above 17000, the near-term outlook is bullish to see a rise to 17500. Thereafter a reversal is possible.

Nifty (22122.25, +0.37%) rose to a high of 22186 and has come down from there. Need to see if it is coming down from here. While above 22000, there is room to see 22500 first before a strong reversal is seen. Have to wait and watch.

Nikkei (38462.5, -0.02%) is consolidating within a narrow range of 38150-39000. The level of 39000 is a crucial resistance zone. While that holds, a fall towards 37500 cannot be negated. Only a decisive break above 39000 is needed for further bullishness towards 39500 or higher.

Shanghai (2905.48, -0.17%) rose to 2913 breaking above the key resistance at 2900 but is coming off from there after the China central bank cuts its 5-Year Loan prime rate by 25bps to 3.95% from 4.20%. A sustained move above 2900, if seen, can take it higher towards 3000-3030/3050 and will negate our mentioned fall towards 2700-2650.


Crude prices remains higher but have key resistance overhead which is expected to cap the upside and lead to a fall back from there. Gold has room to rise while above 2020. Copper has fallen back but outlook remains bullish as long as it holds above 3.80-3.75. Silver can trade sideways within 23.50-22 for a while. Natural Gas is expected to bounce back from its key support of 1.5.

Brent ($ 83.48) is hovering below the key resistance zone of $ 84-85. While $ 84-85 holds, a fall back towards $ 81-80 can be seen. A narrow range of $ 85-80 and a broad range of $ 85-75 can persist for some time.

WTI ($ 78.40) is rising steadily towards $ 80 which is expected to cap the upside and lead to a fall towards $ 75. A narrow range of $ 80-75 and a broad range of $ 80-70 can hold for some time.

Gold (2029.60) trades higher above 2020. A rise towards 2040-2060 is possible in the near term.

Silver (23.04) has declined to 23. It may trade sideways within 23.50-22 for a while. However, as long as it holds above 22, there is potential for an eventual break above 23.50 and rise towards 24-24.50 or even higher towards 25.

Copper (3.8215) has fallen back towards 3.80. Good support is at 3.80-3.75. While above these, chances of rise towards 3.90-3.95 will remain there.

Natural Gas (1.5670) sustains above the support at 1.5. A bounce back towards 2.0-2.1 is possible while above 1.5.


13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.4%

No major data released yesterday.