Markets have been volatile over yesterday and today. The Dollar Index surged post mixed economic data releases yesterday (stronger weekly jobless claims and stronger labor market figures but mixed S&P PMIs) but fell back in overnight trade leading to volatility in the other currencies against the Dollar. Euro tested 1.0888 before coming down but overall view remains bullish above 1.08. EURJPY rose to the level of 163.46 before coming down but while above 162, we keep intact our upside target of 164-165. USDJPY is expected to move towards 151 before pausing. USDCNY continues to remain volatile within 7.18-7.20 region. Aussie rose towards 0.66 as expected and now looks stable within the range of 0.66-0.65. Pound can move higher within the 1.25-1.27 range. EURINR tested the resistance around 90.25 and has dipped slightly from there. USDINR seems to be holding well above the support of 82.80/75 and could trade within the revised range of 82.75-83.00 for some time.

Dollar Index (103.904) bounced back well from 103.43 but overall view remains bearish below 105 to see an eventual fall to 103 or lower Immediate range of 105-103 may hold for a while.

EURUSD (1.0827) came off from 1.0888 but while above 1.08, there is scope to see an eventual rise towards 1.09/0950 in the medium term.

EURJPY (162.89) rose to the level of 163.46 in line with our bullish view before dipping slightly from there. While above 162, there could still be some chances of a slow rise towards 164/165 before topping out soon.

Dollar-Yen (150.43) continues to remain higher above 150 and a slow rise to 151 looks possible before a rejection is seen from there towards 149 or lower eventually in the longer run.

USDCNY (7.1944) continues to remain volatile within the 7.18-7.20 region and a break on the either side of the range will be needed to get further clarity in the medium term. Till then the immediate range may persist.

Aussie (0.6567) is slowly rising and the expected range of 0.66-0.65 is likely to hold for the next few sessions before a break can be seen on the either side. The outlook can only turn bearish if a fall below 0.65 is seen.

Pound (1.2661) tested 1.2709 before declining back to current levels. There is scope for the price to re-test 1.2710-1.2750 before topping out or breaking higher in the medium term.

USDINR (82.8450) declined to close below 82.90 on back of Euro strength. If the pair sustains below 82.90, it can attempt to fall towards 82.80/75 before rising back towards 83 again.

EURINR (89.6685) rose sharply past our expected level 90 to around 90.24 before coming down. While the resistance holds near 90-90.25, a fall to 89 or lower is expected to happen in the near term. Only a decisive break past resistance if seen, can make the outlook further bullish to 92-93.

The US Treasury yields remain higher. The short-term outlook is bullish. There is room to rise further from here before a reversal is seen. The German yields have dipped but are likely to rise back again. Further rise is possible from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI may consolidate in a narrow range before resuming their fall.

The US 10Yr (4.32%) and the 30Yr (4.46%) yields remain higher and stable. Outlook is bullish. The 10Yr can rise to 4.4%-4.6% while above 4.2% and the 30Yr can see 4.6%-4.7% on the upside while above 4.4%.

The German 10Yr (2.44%) and the 30Yr (2.55%) yields have dipped slightly. View remains the same. The 10Yr can rise to 2.6% while above 2.35% and the 30Yr to 2.7%-2.8% on a break above 2.6%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0682%) sustains above 7.05%. A consolidation between 7.05% and 7.15% looks like a possibility before the downtrend resumes targeting 7%-6.95% and 6.9%-6.8%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0474%) on the other hand can fall to 7% while below 7.1%. For now, 7.04%-7.08% looks to be a narrow range of trade.

Strong rally seen in global equities after Nvidia reported stunning quarterly results. However, we need to be cautious as Dow Jones, DAX, Nifty have key long term resistance ahead/overhead which may halt the rally and trigger a correction. Nikkei and Shanghai are both attempting to break above their crucial resistance zone. Let us see if both the indices are able to break higher or not.

Dow (39069.11, +1.18%) has broken the 38000-39000 range on the upside. This keeps intact our view of seeing 39300-39400 on the upside first and then a reversal.

DAX (17370.45, +1.47%) is heading up towards 17500. Strong resistance is in the 17500-17700 region that can halt the rally and trigger a corrective fall.

Nifty (22217.45, +0.74%) had risen back sharply from the low of 21,875 indicating the presence of strong buying below 22000. While above 22000, a rise to 22500 is possible and then a reversal can be seen.

Nikkei (39098.68) saw a high of 39156.97 yesterday and managed to close above 39000. Today Nikkei is closed. A confirmatory break above 39000 is needed to enable further rise towards 40000-40500.

Shanghai (2993.79, +0.18%) is attempting to break above its crucial resistance of 3000. A clear break above 3000 could see an extended rise to 3030-3050-3080. Else there can be scope for a fall towards 2900-2890. It is a wait and watch now.

Brent and WTI are near their crucial resistance which may hold and lead to a fall back from there. Gold is likely to trade sideways below 2060/2050 for a while. Copper has potential to test 3.95 before a fall back can happen. Silver can fall towards its lower end of the 23.50-22 sideways range. Natural Gas continues remains bullish for the near term.

Brent ($ 83.44) moved up to $ 83.96 yesterday. We expect the resistance at $ 84-85 to hold and lead to a fall towards $ 81-80. A narrow range of $ 85-80 and a broad range of $ 85-75 can persist for some time.

WTI ($ 78.37) is heading towards its key resistance at $ 80 which may hold and keep it ranged within $ 80-75 (narrow) and $ 80-70 (broad) range for some time with a bearish view.

Gold (2036.20) lacks follow through rise above 2040. So, a test of 2060 may or may not happen. It can trade sideways within a narrow range of 2050-2020 and a broad range of 2060-2000 for a while.

Silver (22.77) continues to dirft lower. Can fall towards 22.10-22, the lower end of the 23.50-22 range. While 22 holds, our broader outlook remains bullish to see an eventual break on the upside and rise towards 24-24.50 or even higher towards 25 in the coming days.

Copper (3.8920) has moved up towards 3.90. It looks likely to test 3.95 and then a fall back is possible towards 3.80.

Natural Gas (1.8040) has moved up above 1.8. Outlook remains bullish for a rise towards 2.0-2.1 in the near term.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -18 …Expected-18 …Previous -19

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 86.4 …Expected 85.5 …Previous 85.2

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 85.6 …Expected 87.0 …Previous 87.0

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 84.4 …Expected 83.8 …Previous 83.5

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
9:00 14:30 EU Flash PMI
Expn – …Expected 47.0 …Previous 46.6 …Actual 46.1

10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 3.2% …Expected 2.8% …Previous 2.9% …Actual 2.8%

15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 3673K …Expected 3970K …Previous 3780K