Most currencies look stable and due to lesser volatility, our mentioned targets are getting delayed; and the pairs are becoming a bit indecisive in terms of directional clarity for the very near term. Most pairs are stuck within a narrow range. The Dollar Index holds within 104.5-103.5, Euro trades within 1.08-1.09 region, USDJPY looks stable above 150 and USDCNY is stable below 7.20. EURJPY needs to remain above 163 to move higher to 164-165 else can be bearish to 162. Watch price action near 163. Aussie is headed towards 0.65-0.645 while Pound is also likely to head towards 1.26. EURINR can fall to 89.50/89.00. USDINR continues to trade flat around 82.90 region.

Dollar Index (103.859) bounced back from 103.60 but continues to trade within 104.5-103.5 while EURUSD (1.0838) has dipped from 1.0866 and could trade within 1.08-1.09 region for a while.

EURJPY (163.02) has dipped from 163.50 over the last 2-sessions. It will have to bounce back immediately to regain upward momentum towards 164/165 else can be bearish towards 162 in the coming week.

Dollar-Yen (150.41) looks stable within the 149.50-150.90/151 range with low volatility just now. A sharp decline from 151-151.50 would be needed in the medium term to decide if it would top out and decline from there.

USDCNY (7.1983) is stuck just below 7.20 and looks indecisive for the near term.

Aussie (0.6527) has been slowly inching down and could soon test our targets of 0.65/6450 before attempting to rise back in the medium term.

Pound (1.2670) has dipped and while below 1.2730/2700, it could be bearish for the next few sessions towards 1.26.

USDINR (82.9025) has been stable with low volatility over the last 2-days. We continue to expect a range of 82.80/75-83 to hold for the near term.

EURINR (89.8295) looks bearish towards 89.50/89.00 while below 90.


The US Treasury and the German yields have moved up further. Both the yields can rise further in the coming days before a reversing lower again. The US GDP data release today and the PCE data tomorrow are important to watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable within their sideways range. The bias is negative to break the range on the downside and resume the downtrend going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.30%) and the 30Yr (4.42%) yields are moving up as expected. Our view of seeing a rise to 4.4%-4.6% (10Yr) while above 4.2% and 5.6% (30Yr) while above 4.3% remains intact.

The German 10Yr (2.46%) and the 30Yr (2.6%) yields are moving up. The 10Yr can rise to 2.6% while above 2.35%. The 30Yr can touch 2.7%-2.8% on the upside on a break above 2.6%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0707%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0499%) remained stable. The 7.05%-7.15% range on the 10Yr remains intact for now. We expect the yield to break 7.05% and fall to 7%-6.95% and 6.9%-6.8% eventually. The 5Yr can remain in the 7.04%-7.08% and can fall to 7% while below 7.1%.


Dow Jones continues to dip as the key resistance at 39300 is holding well. DAX has entered into its key resistance zone from where a fall back could be seen. Nifty has bounced back yesterday thereby keeping alive the chances of seeing a test of its key resistance before a correction can happen. Nikkei lacks follow through rise and looks stable above 39000. Shanghai has broken sharply above the resistance at 3000 and might extend the rise further in the near term.

Dow (38972.41, -0.25%) has dipped below 39000. While this break sustains, a further fall to 38800-38500 is possible this week. A break below 38500 will confirm that the correction has begun.

DAX (17556.49, +0.76%) has moved into its 17500-17700 resistance zone. Have to be cautious as a turnaround from this resistance zone can drag the DAX down to 17200-17000 and even lower.

Nifty (22198.35, +0.345%) has risen back yesterday thereby keeping alive the chances of seeing 22500 on the upside before a reversal is seen. A break above 22250 can accelerate the rise.

Nikkei (39164.00, -0.28%) remains stable above 39000 and lacks follow through rise. Failure to hold above 39000 can reduce the chances of rising towards 40000-40500 and drag it down towards 38000.

Shanghai (3016.90, +0.05%) has risen sharply, breaking above the resistance at 3000 contrary to our view to see a dip towards 2900. While this break sustains, a further rise towards 3050-3075 is possible.


Crude prices have extended the recovery but could face rejections from their key resistance overhead. Gold can fall within its 2060-2000 range. Copper has recovered a bit but broader outlook will remain bearish while below 3.90. Silver has scope to test its key support of 22 before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas has moved up to its upper end of the range and has scope to rise further in the near term.

Brent ($ 82.37) has extended the bounce further towards $ 83. Resistance at $ 84-85 can hold and keep it in a narrow range of $ 85-80 for some time.

WTI ($ 78.53) has moved up further above $ 78. However, the upside could remain capped at $ 80. For now, a narrow range of $ 80-75 can hold for some time.

Gold (2043.20) is holding well below the resistance at 2050-2055. It may come down towards 2020 within the broad 2060-2000 range.

Silver (22.44) is gradually coming down towards 22. While 22 holds, a bounce back can happen towards 23-23.50. Broder outlook remains bullish to see an eventual break on the upside of 22-23.50 range and rise towards 24-24.50 or even higher towards 25 in the coming days.

Copper (3.8225) recovered from a low of 3.8150 but still have resistance overhead at 3.90. It may trade sideways within 3.80-3.90 for some time before a fall can be seen towards 3.75-3.70.

Natural Gas (1.8020) has moved up to 1.80, the upper end of the 1.65-1.80 range. View remains bullish for a rise towards 2.0-2.1 in the near term.


10:00 15:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 98.2 …Expected 96.6 …Previous 96.2

13:30 19:00 US GDP
Expn – …Expected 3.3% …Previous 3.2%

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 2.6 …Actual 2.1

13:30 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 0.2% …Expected -4.7% …Previous 0.0%

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 5.9% …Expected 6.0% …Previous 5.4%

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 113.8 …Expected 114.8 …Previous 114.8