US PCE data came in line with market expectations and slightly higher than the previous release that took Dollar Index higher but could not sustain and has declined a bit now. Immediate range of 103.50-104.50 may hold. Euro tested the low of 1.0796 before rising back. USDJPY and EURJPY have recovered back after a dip was seen yesterday and now it needs to sustain above 150 and 162 respectively to rise further in the near term. USDCNY has recovered to earlier levels near 7.20. Further view from here is unclear. Aussie and Pound are trading near their immediate support of 0.65 and 1.26 from where a fair chance of bouncing back towards 0.655-0.66 and 1.27 in the near term can be possible. USDINR continues to move within 82.80-83 region. EURINR could trade within 90-89 for the near term.

Dollar Index (104.07) surged a bit towards 104.20 after the PCE data release but overall, it looks stable within the range of 103.50-104.50 and is likely to hold for the near term.

EURUSD (1.0817) again tested the low of 1.0796 yesterday before recovering from there. Immediate support is seen near 1.0775 and near-term upside is likely to be restricted to 1.09-1.0950.

EURJPY (162.61) halted its fall at 161.69 before rebounding well from there. It has to be seen if the current rise is short lived and take it back towards 163+ levels or not else could again turn down towards 162 or lower in the medium term. Watch price action around 163.

Dollar-Yen (150.36) bounced back from 149.20 and looks headed again towards 151. It has to be seen if the current rise is short lived and could face rejection from 151-151.50 to fall eventually towards 149/148. Watch price action for the next few days.

USDCNY (7.1960) tested 7.1872 before bouncing back sharply again towards 7.20. Further view from here is unclear just now.

Aussie (0.6510) looks stable above 0.65 for now but it still needs to bounce back towards 0.655 and higher, else the pair getting dragged down towards 0.64 could be seen in the medium term.

Pound (1.2632) is currently trading just above the support of 1.26 and chances of the pair rising towards 1.27 seems high in the near term. Overall, the immediate range of 1.26-1.2730 may hold for now before a breakout is seen on either side.

USDINR (82.9175) has been oscillating around 82.90 over the last few days. We continue to stick to our near term range of 82.80-83.00.

EURINR (89.6864) tested 90.0601 but came down again from there. Until a decisive break past 90 is seen, the outlook continues to remain bearish towards 89.00 and could trade within 90-89 region in the near term.


The US Treasury yields remain stable. While they sustain above their supports, there is room to rise further from here before a reversal is seen. The US PCE – Fed’s inflation gauge, continues to come down. The US PCE (YoY) came in at 2.4% for February, down from 2.62% in January. The German yields have come down but are likely to rise back again. The yields can go up in the short-term and then reverse lower. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within their sideways range. The broader bias is bearish. We expect the yields to break the range on the downside and fall eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.26%) and the 30Yr (4.38%) yields remain stable. Our view remains the same. The 10Yr can rise to 4.4%-4.6% while above 4.2%. The 30Yr can rise to 4.6% (30Yr) while above 4.3%. Thereafter we can expect the yields to reverse lower again.

The German 10Yr (2.41%) and the 30Yr (2.54%) yields have come down but are likely to rise back again. While above 2.35% the 10Yr can rise to 2.6%. The 30Yr on the other hand can move up to 2.7%-2.8% on a break above 2.6%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0764%) has moved up within its 7.05%-7.15% range. Though further rise within the range cannot be ruled out, the broader trend is down. The yield can break below 7.05% eventually and fall to 7%-6.95% and 6.9%-6.8%

The 5Yr GOI (7.0540%) oscillating between 7.04% and 7.08%. While below 7.1%, we can expect the yield to fall towards 7%.


Dow Jones has extended the recovery further and a break above 39000, if seen, can take it back to its key resistance zone. DAX printed an all time high yesterday and came down slightly from there. A break above its mentioned resistance zone can lead to an extended rise before a correction can begins. Nifty is managing to sustain above 21800 and is still keeping alive the chances of seeing a test of 22500 before a fall back can happen. Nikkei has risen back sharply above 39000 and while above 39000 view is bullish to target new highs. Shanghai has extended the bounce further and might see a test of its resistance on the upside.

Dow (38996.39, +0.12%) is getting support in the 38800-38700 region. A rise above 39000 can take it back up to the 39300-39400 resistance zone and will delay the corrective fall. It is a wait and watch situation now.

DAX (17678.19, +0.44%) rose to a high of 17742 and has come down. A sustained rise above 17700 can see an extended rise to 17900 and then a strong correction can be seen. But broadly DAX is at a strong resistance and is due for a strong correction.

Nifty (21982.80, +0.14%) is managing to sustain above 21800 and is still keeping alive the chances of the rise to 22500 before reversal is seen. Only a break below 21800 will trigger a fall to 21500 and lower.

Nikkei (39890, +1.79%) has risen back sharply above 39500 after testing a low of 38876.81. This is contrary to our view to see a fall to 38000. A test of 40000-40500 or even 41000 looks likely on the upside.

Shanghai (3015.47, +0.01%) has extended the bounce further above 3000. A test of 3050 or 3075 looks possible if it sustains above 3000. For now the broad 2900-3050 range remains intact.


Crude prices looks range bound and are likely to remain capped below their key resistance. Gold has moved up breaking above the resistance at 2050. If the break sustain, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Copper and Silver can rise towards their upper end of the range. Natural Gas has dipped slightly but outlook remains bullish for a test of its resistance in the near term.

Brent ($ 82.23) is stuck in a narrow range of $ 83-81.50. We continue to expect a range of $ 85-80 to hold for some time.

WTI ($ 78.48) is oscillating within $ 80-78. Upside could remain capped at $ 80 and keep it in a range of $ 80-75 for some time.

Gold (2052.50) moved up to 2060 yesterday breaking above the resistance at 2050-2055 contrary to our view to see a dip towards 2020. If the break sustains above 2050, a further rise to 2080-2100 can be seen.

Silver (22.88) is heading towards 23 and can rise further towards 23.50, the upper end of the 22-23.50 range. Bias remains bullish to see an eventual break on the upside and rise towards 24-24.50.

Copper (3.8430) is gradually moving up within its 3.80-3.90 range. A break 3.90 is needed to see a test of 3.95. Else it can continue to trade within 3.80-3.90 range with a scope to see a break on the downside and fall towards 3.70-3.75.

Natural Gas (1.8450) has dipped slightly from 1.9180. But outlook remains bullish for a test of 2.0-2.1 on the upside. After that, a fall might be possible towards 1.8-1.7.


23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 2.4%

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
Expn 48.5 …Expected – …Previous 48.0

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
Expn 51.8 …Expected – …Previous 50.8

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 56.1 …Expected – …Previous 56.5

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 43.5 …Expected – …Previous 43.1

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 46.1

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 47.6 …Expected – …Previous 47.0

10:00 15:30 EU Unemp
Expn 6.5% …Expected – …Previous 6.4%

10:00 15:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY)
Expn 2.2% …Expected 2.5% …Previous 2.8%

14:30 20:00 CA PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 48.3

15:00 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 49.2 …Expected – …Previous 49.1

5:45 11:15 CH GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.3%

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
Expn 6.5% …Expected -6.6% …Previous 7.6% …Actual 8.4%

13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.6% …Expected 0.4% …Previous 0.3% …Actual 1.0%

13:30 19:00 US Core PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.4% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.4%

13:30 19:00 US PCE
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.3%

13:30 19:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.0%