Most currencies continue to trade within a broad range. Dollar Index trades within 104.50-103.50, Aussie and Pound trade within 0.65-0.66 and 1.26-1.2730 region, USDCNY is stuck within 7.18-7.20, USDJPY trades within 151-149 region while USDINR and EURINR are also trading within 83.0-82.80 and 89-90 region. Decisive breakout are needed on either side of the mentioned ranges to see directional momentum picking up soon. Euro could head towards 1.09-1.0950 while above 1.08. EURJPY is heading towards resistance near 163 which if holds can produce a fall else if breaks higher could lead to a rise towards 164/165 before toping out.

Dollar Index (103.853) fell from 104.29 itself and is now headed towards the lower end of the 104.50-103.50 range.

EURUSD (1.0844) seems to be holding well above the mentioned support of 1.075 as it has risen sharply in the last two sessions. Going ahead, a further break past 1.085 will be needed to maintain its bullishness in the trend, else the chances of it coming down towards 1.075 can again be seen in the near term. The upside is likely to be restricted to 1.09-1.0950.

EURJPY (162.83) looks stable above 162 for now and has a fair chances of extending its rise towards 164-165 if it sustains rise above 163 in the near term before eventually topping out. Watch price action near interim resistance at 163.

Dollar-Yen (150.16) tested 150.72 on Friday, close to our expected target of 151 before declining from there. A sharp fall below 149 will be needed to make the outlook further bearish in the medium term. Until then it may continue to trade within 151-149 region.

USDCNY (7.1980) is currently trading near the upper end of its narrow range of 7.18-7.20 but unless a break on the either side of the range is seen, further view remains indecisive.

Aussie (0.6527) continues to remain stable above 0.65 but a break past 0.655 is needed to further test 0.66 on the upside, else the pair getting dragged down towards 0.64 could be seen in the medium term.

Pound (1.2664) is rising towards 1.27 as expected. Overall, the immediate range of 1.26-1.2730 may hold for now before a breakout is seen on either side.

USDINR (82.9050) fell to a low of 82.83 before bouncing back to close around 82.90 on Friday. The 82.80-83.00 range remains intact for now with bearish bias towards 82.75/65 over the coming weeks.

EURINR (89.8645) continues to trade within 90-89 region and until a decisive break is seen on either side, the outlook continues to remain ranged in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply on Friday and are poised near their key supports. A further fall from here can negate the rise that we have been expecting and in turn can take the yields down this week. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields remain higher and stable. The outlook is bullish and more rise can be seen from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are stuck in a narrow range within their overall downtrend. The bias is negative and we expect the yields to break their range on the downside and resume the downtrend.

The US 10Yr (4.20%) and the 30Yr (4.34%) yields have come down. A fall below 4.2% can negate the rise to 4.4%-4.6% on the 10Yr. It can then drag the yield down to 4.1%-4%. The 30Yr has to sustain above 4.3% to keep alive the chances of the rise to 4.6%.

The German 10Yr (2.41%) and the 30Yr (2.55%) yields remain stable. View remains the same. The 10Yr can rise to 2.6% while above 2.35%. The 30Yr can rise to 2.7%-2.8% on a break above 2.6%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0572%) has come down after testing 7.08%. Bias remains negative for the yield to break the 7.05%-7.04% support and fall to 7%-6.95% and 6.9%-6.8%. Resistances are at 7.08%, 7.10% and 7.15%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0549%) is still stuck between 7.04% and 7.08%. A fall to 7% is likely while below 7.1%.

Good rally is seen across all indices. Dow Jones and Nifty have crucial supports while above which there could chances that the rally may continue in the near term. DAX, Nikkei and Shanghai, on the other hand, have scope to test key resistance before a fall back might be seen.

Dow (39087.38, +0.23%) has risen back above 39000. The expected correction is not happening. Crucial support is seen near 38700-38500 region. A rise to 39500 looks likely now.

DAX (17735.07, +0.32%) keeps the chances high of seeing an extended rise to 17900-18000 before reversing lower. We will have to wait and watch.

Nifty (22378.40, +0.18%) saw a strong rise towards 22400 on Friday and even tested a high of 22419.55 on saturday’s special live trading session. A test of 22500-22700 looks likely now. Need to see if it is turning lower from there or extending the rise up to 23000 and then turning down. 22000 can be a very good support now.

Nikkei (40189, +0.62%) has risen above 40000 and has scope to test 40800-41000 before a corrective dip might be possible towards 40000-39500.

Shanghai (3019.17, -0.26%) sustains higher above 3000. A rise towards 3050-3075/3080 looks likely before a fall back be seen towards 3000.

Brent and WTI has moved up but could face rejections from $ 85 and $ 82-83 respectively. Precious metals saw a solid rise on last Friday after US ISM manufacturing PMI came out weaker than expected. Copper can rise towards its upper end of the range. Natural Gas remains bullish for a test of its resistance in the near term before a fall back can be seen from there.

Brent ($ 83.79) has moved up sharply towards the key resistance at $ 85. While that holds, a fall back towards $ 82-80 can be seen. Overall, a range of $ 85-80 can hold for some time.

WTI ($ 80.09) has risen above $ 80 but could face resistance in the region of $ 82-83. While $ 82-83 holds, a fall back towards $ 78-76 can be seen.

Gold (2089.10) jumped to 2097 last friday in line with expectation to see a rise towards 2080-2100 while above 2050. A decisive break above 2100 can take it further up to 2150. Any fall from 2100 might be limited to 2070.

Silver (23.31) has risen sharply towards the upper end of the 22-23.50 range. Bias remains positive to see a break on the upside and rise towards 24-24.50.

Copper (3.8550) is gradually moving up within its 3.80-3.90 range. A break 3.90, if seen, can lead to a rise towards 3.94/3.95

Natural Gas (1.8920) remains higher above 1.8 and has scope to test 2.0-2.1 on the upside. After that, a fall might be possible towards 1.8-1.7.

7:30 13:00 CH CPI
Expn 0.8 …Expected 1.1 …Previous 1.3

DATA FRIDAY
—————
23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected 2.4% …Previous 2.4% …Actual 2.4%

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
Expn 48.5 …Expected 47.2 …Previous 48.0 …Actual 47.2

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
Expn 51.8 …Expected 50.7 …Previous 50.8 …Actual 50.9

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 56.1 …Expected – …Previous 56.5 …Actual 56.9

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 43.5 …Expected 44.3 …Previous 43.1 …Actual 44

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 46.1 …Previous 46.1 …Actual 46.5

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 47.6 …Expected 47.1 …Previous 47.1 …Actual 47.5

10:00 15:30 EU Unemp
Expn 6.5% …Expected 6.4% …Previous 6.4% …Actual 6.4%

10:00 15:30 EU CPI Flash Estimate (YoY)
Expn 2.2% …Expected 2.5% …Previous 2.8% …Actual 2.6%

14:30 20:00 CA PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 48.3 …Actual 49.7

15:00 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 49.2 …Expected – …Previous 49.1 …Actual 47.8