FED decided to keep the interest rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% and the dot plot sticks to projection of 3 rate cuts in 2024, against the market fear of indications of maybe 2 rate cuts. Dollar Index is falling towards 103-102.50 while Euro is up sharply above 1.09 and could head towards immediate resistance at 1.0950. EURJPY and USDJPY have held well below respective resistances and could fall towards 163/162 and 149/148 respectively. Aussie and Pound are bullish towards 0.67/68 and 1.29. EURINR is rising with 89-91 range while USDINR could come down a bit today with an immediate range of 83.20-82.95.

Dollar Index (103.208) is down from yesterday’s intra-day high of 104.149 while EURUSD (1.0934) is up from 1.0834 seen yesterday. Sharp movement has come in after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged. While the immediate trend holds, Dollar Index can head towards 103-102.50 while Euro can be bullish towards 1.0950 where immediate resistance can be seen.

EURJPY (164.49) tested 165.35 yesterday before coming off from there while Dollar-Yen (150.43) has slipped off from 151.818 in line with the fall in the Dollar Index. If the reversals hold, EURJPY and USDJPY could head towards 163/162 and 149/148 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1975) is stuck below 7.20.

Aussie (0.6617) has rallied well over the last 2-sessions moving up from 0.6587 to current levels. It looks further bullish towards 0.67/68.

Pound (1.2794) has also moved up well over the last 2-days while support near 1.27 holds good. A rise to 1.29 is on the cards for the near term.

USDINR (83.1625) rose sharply yesterday ahead of the FED statement, breaking above our expected resistance near 83.10 to test 83.1625. However, overnight NDF rates quoted a lower USDINR bringing it down to 83.00 which indicates a possible fall in the onshore markets today. Immediate trade range could be 82.95-83.20 for the next couple of sessions.

EURINR (90.8284) is rising well towards the upper end of its broad range of 89-91 but unless a strong break past 91 is seen, view remains ranged for the near term.

The US Treasury yields remain subdued after the US Federal Reserve meeting outcome yesterday. The Fed left the rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% range and made no change in its forecast for three rate cuts this year. The yields have immediate supports which have to be broken to negate the rise that we have been expecting and drag the lower. The German yields have dipped. But the broad picture remains bullish for them to rise more before seeing a reversal. The 10Yr GoI has dipped while the 5Yr GoI sustains higher and stable. The 10Yr can resume its downtrend if it falls further from here. The 5Yr GoI has a strong resistance which will have to be broken to negate a reversal and rise more.

The US 10Yr (4.26%) has dipped slightly while the 30Yr (4.45%) remains stable. 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) are key supports while above which has to be broken to drag the yields down to 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) and negative the rise to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.43%) and the 30Yr (2.58%) yields have dipped. The bullish view of seeing a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7%-2.8% (30Yr) remains intact. 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) are key supports.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0918%) has dipped. The resistance at 7.1% is holding well for now. A further fall from here will keep the broader downtrend intact and take the 10Yr down to 7% and lower. It will negate the chances of the rise to 7.15%-7.2%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0955%) on the other hand is sustaining higher. But it has to breach 7.13% to become bullish for a rise to 7.2%. A fall below 7.08% can bring it under pressure for a fall to 7%. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow Jones rose handsomely after the FOMC meeting so the Nifty can also bounce well today. All other indices like DAX, Nikkei and Shanghai have also risen/bounced well and look bullish for the near term.

Dow (39512.13, 1.03%) has surged breaking the 38500-39200 range on the upside. While this sustains a further rise to 39700 and even 40000 looks possible.

DAX (18015.13, +0.15%) has closed just above 18000. It keeps intact our view of seeing 18200-18500 on the upside.

Nifty (21839.10, +0.1%) can see a gap-up open taking cues from the Dow. But it is important to see if it is going to get a strong follow-through rise above 22000 and rise past 22250 in the coming days to negate the danger of the fall to 21500. We prefer to stay cautious and wait and watch.

Nikkei (40751, +1.88) has risen sharply, breaking above 40000 as expected. A rise towards 41000-42000 looks possible.

Shanghai (3072.87, -0.22%) has bounced as the support at 3050 has held well. A rise to 3150-3200 can be seen in the coming days while it remains above 3050-3020.

Brent and WTI have indeed fallen as the resistances have held well but the supports at $ 85 and $ 80 respectively could also hold and keep them ranged for some time. Metals have bounced sharply as FED kept the interest rate unchanged but still sticks to the projection of 3 rate cuts for 2024. Additionally, the mentioned support on metals have held well. Natural Gas looks vulnerable to a fall while below the resistance at 1.8.

Brent ($ 86.47) fell to $ 85.34 yesterday in line with expectations for a fall towards $ 86-85 and has bounced a bit. Support at $ 85 and resistance at $ 88 could hold for some time.

WTI ($ 81.71) fell to a low of $ 80.85 before bouncing back above $ 81. The support at $ 80 and resistance at $ 84-85 could hold for some time. Only a decisive break below $ 80, could see a fall to $ 78.50.

Gold (2207) moved up sharply to 2225 way beyond our expected level of 2200. It has potential to move up further towards 2250 or even 2280-2300 while it sustains above 2150.

Silver (25.91) has bounced towards 26 as the support at 25 has held well as expected. A test of 26.20-26.30 looks likely. If 26.30 holds, a fall back to 25.50 could be seen.

Copper (4.1090) has bounced sharply from 4.0270. As mentioned earlier, there could be chances of rise towards 4.20-4.30 while it remains above 4.01/4.00.

Natural Gas (1.7060) lacks strength to rise past 1.8. This makes it vulnerable to see a dip towards 1.6-1.5. Only a clear break above 1.8 could open doors towards 2.00.

0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 40.2K …Previous0.5K

8:30 14:00 SNB Mtg
Expn – …Expected 1.75% …Previous 1.75%

12:00 17:30 BOE Mtg
Expn – …Expected 5.25% …Previous 5.25%

12:00 17:30 UK BOE Minutes
Expn – …Expected 0-1-8 …Previous 2-1-6

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
Expn – …Expected -1.8 …Previous 5.2

12:30 18:00 US Current Account Balance
Expn – …Expected -209 …Previous-200

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 3867K …Expected 3920K …Previous 4000K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 3.7% …Expected 3.5% …Previous 4.0% …Actual 3.4%

19:00 00:30 US FOMC Meeting
Expn 5.50% …Expected 5.50% …Previous 5.50%