Sharp movement seen last week saw some recovery yesterday in the global trade giving some relief to the markets. Euro has bounced from support at 1.08, Dollar Index has come down from 104.50 seeing some profit taking, EURJPY and USDJPY are holding well below resistances of 165.50 and 152 while Aussie and Pound have risen back above 0.65 and 1.26 and could head higher in the next few days. USDCNY could trade between 7.18-7.22/23 while EURINR could sustain within 90-91. USDINR can open around 83.40/35 and attempt to fall towards 83.20/10 while upside could be limited to resistance at 83.50.

EURUSD (1.0843) bounced back yesterday, holding above support at 1.08 and while the rise sustains, Euro could head towards 1.09-1.0950.

Dollar Index (104.16) has dipped from 104.50 and could head towards 104-103.50 before pausing.

EURJPY (164.09) bounced back from 163.318 while Dollar-Yen (151.33) fell from 151.86. Both the pairs have resistances near 165.50 and 152 which if hold can eventually push the prices down in the near term. Watch for a further fall below 164 and 151 for confirmation of a medium term fall.

USDCNY (7.2160) fell back to 7.1948 yesterday but has now recovered a bit from there. A broader range of 7.18-7.22/23 can hold for the near term if the pair again goes into a sideways consolidation.

Aussie (0.6550) has bounced while above 0.65 and could head again towards 0.66 in the next few sessions.

Pound (1.2644) broke below 1.26 to test 1.2575 last week but managed to bounce back yesterday. It could now test 1.27 in the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.43) may open around 83.40/35 and could attempt to fall towards 83.20/10 while upside could be limited to resistance at 83.50.

EURINR (90.4051) has been stable within 91-90 and could continue so for the near term.


The US Treasury and the German yields have risen slightly after the sharp fall seen last week. They look bullish for the near term. The 10Yr has resistance at 7.10% which if holds could drag it down towards 7.06/04% else a decisive break on the upside could be bullish. Watch price action near 7.10% today. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand can be slightly bullish towards 7.12/14% while above support near 7.06%.

The US 10Yr (4.232%) and the 30Yr (4.402%) yields seem to have risen slightly, recovering from the recent fall in the last few sessions. While above 4.20% and 4.40%, the yields could move up slowly towards 4.35% and 4.50% respectively in the near term.

The German 10Yr (2.377%) and the 30Yr (2.525%) yields have risen after the sharp fall seen last week. The 10Yr and 30Yr yields may rise towards 2.5% and 2.65% respectively soon. View is bullish for the next few days.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0927%) rose sharply to close near resistance at 7.10% last week. If the resistance manages to hold, we could see some recovery today where the yield may fall back towards 7.06-7.04%. Only a decisive break above 7.10% will be bullish towards 7.14%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1080%) is likely to hold well above support at 7.06% and move higher eventually in the coming sessions. Immediate target could be 7.12/14%.


Dow Jones, Nikkei and Shanghai have fallen but have key near term supports coming up which may hold and produces a bounce. DAX has scope to test its key resistance in the near term which could halt the current rally. Nifty has to rise past 22250 for increased bullishness; else could trade sideways for a while.

Dow (39313.65, -0.41%) has fallen back below 39500 but could get support at 39000. While 39000 holds, a bounce back towards 40000 can be seen again. Overall a range of 39000-40000 could for some time.

DAX (18261.31, +0.30%) continues to move up. A test of 18400-18500 looks possible before a corrective dip might be seen towards 18000.

Good rally seen in Nifty (22096.75, +0.39%) on last Friday. A rise past 22250 is needed for further bullishness towards 22500. Else it could trade sideways within 22250-21700 with a scope for a possible dip towards 21500.

Nikkei (40358.00, -0.22) has fallen back failing to rise past 41000. However, support is at 40000, while above which, chances of rise towards 41700-42000 will remain there. Thereafter a corrective dip could be seen.

Shanghai (3022.50, -0.15%) is coming down towards the support at 3000. While that holds, a bounce back towards 3100 and then towards 3150-3200 could be seen.


Crude prices have recovered but could face resistance overhead. Gold and Silver can remain range bound for some time. Copper and Natural Gas have scope to rise while they remains above 3.9750-3.95 and 1.75-1.70 respectively.

Brent ($ 86.33) bounced back from $ 85 itself contrary to our view for a break below $ 85 and fall further towards $ 84.50-83.50-83. It could face resistance at $ 88.50. While that holds, a range of $ 88.50-85.00 could persist for some time

WTI ($ 82.23) has bounced from a low of $ 80.40 contrary to our view to see a break below $ 80 and fall towards $ 78.70 or even lower towards $ 76-75. Key resistance is at $ 84. While that holds, a range of $ 84-80 could persist for some time.

Gold (2170.60) is hovering above 2150. A rise towards 2200-2225 is possible while it remains above 2150. A range of 2150-2200/2225 could hold for some time.

Silver (24.77) fell to 24.58 in line with expectations for a fall to 24.50 and has bounced back but lacks follow through rise above 25. A sideways range of 25.00/25.10-24.50 could hold for some time before a fall towards 24 can be seen.

Copper (4.0110) has recovered a bit from 3.9905. Key support at 3.9750 and then at 3.95. While above these, a bounce can be seen towards 4.05-4.10.

Natural Gas (1.7950) is attempting to rise above 1.8. Support is near 1.75-1.70. While above 1.70, there is potential for a rise towards 2.0. The chances of fall towards 1.6-1.5 that we have mentioned earlier has reduced now.


12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 0.6% …Expected 1.2% …Previous -6.2%

13:00 18:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 6.4% …Expected 6.6% …Previous 6.2%

14:00 19:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 107.7 …Expected 106.9 …Previous 106.7

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 655K …Expected 675K …Previous 661K